Signal KEEI projects Korean oil demand to fall 1.9 percent a year to 2030 on petrochemical restructuring and lower diesel use

Summary

Oil demand in Korea is projected to decline by 1.9 percent a year between 2025 and 2030, with both industrial and transport use falling. Industrial oil demand is expected to drop sharply in 2026 as the petrochemical industry restructures in response to a structural downturn. The pace of decline then slows almost to a standstill, but demand keeps edging down throughout the period as China's petrochemical self-sufficiency keeps rising and Middle Eastern producers move into petrochemicals. In transport, gasoline demand continues to grow with mobility, yet diesel demand falls as freight volumes from energy-intensive industries shrink. As a result, total oil use in transport also declines over the outlook period.