Signal IPCC AR6 Models Underestimate Renewable Growth — Power-to-X Missing from Scenarios

Summary

A study published via ScienceDirect, "Navigating the energy transitions: Analysis of the role of renewable energy and electrification in IPCC AR6 scenarios reaching safe climate conditions," analyzed integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report targeting at most 1.5°C of warming. The study finds that most IAM scenarios overestimate the role of bioenergy and fossil fuels paired with carbon capture and sequestration, largely because the concept of Power-to-X is missing from the modeling structures. Of 143 scenarios targeting 1.5°C, only 30% project a primary renewable electricity share of 55% or higher, while 97% exceed the global sustainable bioenergy potential estimated for 2100. Only 8.5% of scenarios analyzed a target near the safe and just planetary boundary of 1.0°C or 350 ppm. The findings align with broader critiques that AR6 low-carbon scenarios rely heavily on carbon dioxide removal, dominated by bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and land sequestration, whose large-scale feasibility remains highly uncertain.