Signal RFF Global Energy Outlook 2026: "How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C"

Summary

Resources for the Future released "Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C" on April 7, 2026, authored by Daniel Raimi, Emily Joiner, Bryan Hubbell, Nafisa Lohawala and Molly Robertson. The report concludes that a decade after the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C stretch goal, achieving it is no longer plausible, and the world will exceed that threshold by 2050. It adds that even limiting warming to 2°C will be extremely challenging without substantial policy changes, though "overshoot" scenarios that later bring temperatures back down remain technically possible. Electricity demand is surging in the report's projections, driven by data centers, electric vehicles and other power-hungry technologies. The analysis was prepared before US military action in Venezuela and Iran, which the authors say will affect future modeling; panelist Sarah Ladislaw separately warned of energy-security risks such as a potentially non-functional Strait of Hormuz. The declaration that the 1.5°C goal is lost is made in the report's title rather than buried in its findings.