Trend Megatrend 2: resource scarcity
Summary
The second of the seven. The report expects demand for water, food, energy, land, minerals and ores to keep climbing, driven above all by the purchasing power of a growing global middle class, with climate change making that demand harder to meet, so that natural resources become both scarcer and more expensive.
Classification
Main topicResources, Food & Water
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon11-30 years (2026-07-26)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 2
- Megatrends 2040: Volatility, Uncertainty, Resourcefulness Hellenic Republic, Presidency of the Government — Working Group on Strategic Foresight and Futures Research (표지·판권면 로고로만 확인) page=10;section=Megatrend 2 Resource scarcity 2022-07 (문헌 본문에 발행일 표기 없음 — PDF 메타데이터 생성일 2022-07-25 기준) accessed 2026-07-26
- Megatrends 2040: Volatility, Uncertainty, Resourcefulness Hellenic Republic, Presidency of the Government — Working Group on Strategic Foresight and Futures Research (표지·판권면 로고로만 확인) page=10;section=Megatrend 2 Resource scarcity 2022-07 (문헌 본문에 발행일 표기 없음 — PDF 메타데이터 생성일 2022-07-25 기준) accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 5
- SignalGlobal Footprint Network cited: resources used 1.75 times faster than regeneration
- SignalPopulation doubled and GDP rose tenfold in fifty years; ecological deficit since 1970
- SignalRenewables share put at over 40% by 2040, up from 25%
- SignalResource demand up tenfold in the 20th century and projected to double by 2030
- SignalWWF cited for fossil fuel consumption doubling every twenty years
Part of issues 4
- IssueDepletion of finite minerals, metals and fossil fuels1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueFood and water security under consumption and climate pressure3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueMaterial demand may feed local conflict where mining meets farming and cities1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWater demand rises exponentially while supply turns volatile4 trends · 1 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-8f8f8819eb6b