Signal 25% chance of AMOC tipping even if Paris goals are met

Summary

Based on new research by the Dutch meteorological institute and other institutes, the report states that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could reach a tipping point before 2100 and then come to a halt. That outcome is likely if carbon dioxide emissions keep rising. The report puts the probability of crossing this tipping point at 25 percent even if the Paris goals are met. A shutdown of the circulation would make summers in north-western Europe drier and bring extremely cold winter spells. The report expects major consequences for European crop yields and treats the stalling of this current as one of several tipping points that may come sooner than previously thought. Other potential tipping points of concern this century, in the report's account, include melting Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon turning into savannah, thawing permafrost and shifting monsoons.