Signal Streamflow and soil moisture deviations on 22.6 and 22.0 percent of land

Summary

The freshwater boundary measures the share of ice-free land showing significant dry or wet deviations in streamflow (blue water) and root-zone soil moisture (green water). The latest analysis puts these at 22.6 percent for blue water and 22.0 percent for green water, both above boundaries of 12.9 and 12.4 percent. The boundaries are set at the 95th percentile of variability in a 119-year pre-industrial-like baseline without climate change and with land and water use held at 1901 levels, whose medians are 10.3 and 9.8 percent. This year's figures come from the same 1901 to 2019 analysis but now rest on the published 2026 study and data release by Virkki and colleagues. The current status reflects average conditions over 2010 to 2019, and both deviations crossed their boundaries around 1940 and have risen since. The report reads this increase as a sign of growing variability and instability in global freshwater systems.