Trend Megatrend 4: Climate and ecological tipping points

Summary

KDI identifies climate change as a megatrend defined above all by nonlinearity. Global average temperature in 2024 was 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, and 2023 to 2025 were the three hottest years on record. Once climate systems cross tipping points, self-reinforcing feedbacks push them toward new states that are hard to reverse, such as ice sheet collapse or permafrost thaw, which is why conventional economic models understate damage. For Korea the risk has two layers: physical hazards such as coastal flooding and heatwaves, and stranded assets in carbon-intensive industries as global decarbonisation accelerates. The report adds that falling costs of solar, wind and batteries also create positive tipping points, so the physical toll and the race to lead the transition will both deepen up to 2045.