Signal Land-based mitigation raised freshwater transgression by 94 percent

Summary

The report stresses that because the boundaries are linked, an intervention that helps one boundary is not automatically safe for the Earth system as a whole. A 2025 modelling study examined land-based climate mitigation, including more bioenergy supply, protecting and restoring forests and peatlands, and better farm management. These measures reduced transgression of the climate change, land system change, biosphere integrity and nitrogen boundaries. Because they raised irrigation demand, however, they increased freshwater boundary transgression by 94 percent. When dietary change and less food waste were added, outcomes improved for all five boundaries studied. The report argues that such trade-offs must be spotted early so that pressure is not shifted from one Earth system process to another.