Signal US share of Chinese exports fell from 19 to 15 percent as Beijing diversified

Summary

Drawing lessons from the first trade war, Beijing concluded that it should not depend on the US for key imports or technology and should diversify its export markets. The report finds that China has partly achieved the second goal. The US share of China's total exports fell from 19 percent in 2019 to 15 percent in 2024. China's global trade surplus has grown relative to GDP since 2020, yet its surplus with the US edged down from 2.2 percent of GDP in 2022 to 1.9 percent in 2024. Since around 2020, Chinese industrial and technology policy has concentrated on self-reliance and economic security, and Xi Jinping stressed balancing national security and development at a party plenum in July 2024.