E4 Trade & Economic Security
by main topic: 187
Issues 54
Macroeconomy & Finance 8
- IssueA new phase of globalisation that also produces unexpected instability1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueBeyond Classifications1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKorean vulnerability: External economic dependence0 trends · 1 signals
- IssuePolicy area 3: states balance strategic interest, core values and competitiveness at once3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueRerouting through third countries may raise indirect imports from China rather than cut them1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueTrade policy uncertainty and protectionism as the dominant downside risk to global growth0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTransformation of the international economic and monetary system0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueWatch point: reconfiguration slides into protectionism that buys resilience with inflation1 trends · 0 signals
Industry & Supply Chains 20
0-3 years 7
- IssueAutomotive resilience is framed as diversified suppliers, codesigned chips and localized manufacturing1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGlobal supply models are declared unable to guarantee resilience, cost stability or competitiveness1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueKorea: unpredictable US trade policy paths and Chinese price competition2 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePreventing Chinese circumvention from becoming a Korea-US trade dispute2 trends · 2 signals
- IssueRisk: US trade policy uncertainty persists after the IEEPA tariff ruling1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueSupply-chain participation choice pressure on Korea from US and Chinese controls2 trends · 4 signals
- IssueUS Section 301, EU steel quotas and the EU Industrial Accelerator Act raise trade barriers for Korean industry2 trends · 0 signals
4-10 years 12
- IssueA Korea-Central Asia partnership built around six synergy sectors0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueA multi-level Korean strategy toward EU institutions and individual member states0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueChoosing sectors: frontier technology and Arctic logistics with Russia, critical minerals and education with Central Asia0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueEU de-risking raises Korea's strategic value as a supply-chain partner2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueLimits of trade defence against Chinese overcapacity and the need to rebuild European capacity2 trends · 3 signals
- IssueLinking industrial policy with overseas investment and trade to rebuild secure supply chains1 trends · 1 signals
- IssuePolicy task 1: diversify export markets and products away from US dependence0 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePolicy task 2: strengthen the upstream supply chain from an economic security perspective1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRecasting the North from an export market into an economic-security and supply-chain partner1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRepositioning Korea's cooperation with emerging connecting countries1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueTariffs, export controls and rules of origin become decisive for Korean ICT firms4 trends · 1 signals
- IssueWatch point: trade shifts stabilize or destabilize geopolitics depending on connectedness1 trends · 0 signals
11-30 years 1
- IssueRestructuring of the international division of labour0 trends · 1 signals
Climate Change & Adaptation 1
- IssueArctic routes opening while other trade routes become less viable1 trends · 0 signals
Resources, Food & Water 5
- IssueEconomic security through diversified cooperation, strategic resources and managed security items2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueEuropean fertiliser dependence on imported natural gas weakens strategic autonomy1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueSilicon sovereignty is broken into six levers including critical minerals and energy1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueStricter import controls versus trading partnerships1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueUnresolved regulatory questions and benefit sharing with Global South mineral producers1 trends · 0 signals
Geopolitics & Security 15
- Issue2050 regional order scenario 4: Interpenetrating competition amid economic interdependence1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueApproaching the EU as a long-term strategic partner rather than a substitute export market1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueDeepening geopolitical fragmentation and a new wave of protectionism1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueDefending an open trading order through CPTPP and reglobalization1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueFour 2030 competitiveness scenarios defined by regulation and geopolitical volatility1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueFrom security with the US and economy with China to security with the US and economy with the world1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueKorea needs supply-chain and alliance diversification plus foresight capacity2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueManaging reliance on the United States amid broad tariff uncertainty1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueNew free trade zones and rising protectionism at the same time1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePolicy task 3: make the trade environment more predictable and build diplomatic buffers0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueScenario: repeated small deals rather than a US-China grand bargain1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueSecurity-driven economics and the efficiency cost of strategic autonomy3 trends · 0 signals
- IssueStrengthening Korea's strategic flexibility and leverage with both powers1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTariffs as the most negotiable issue in US-China bargaining1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueUS trade policy, tariffs and the geopoliticisation of markets0 trends · 0 signals
Democracy & Governance 2
- IssueKorea-EU cooperation on WTO reform and a rules-based trading order1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueTariff war erodes the WTO system and multilateral trade order1 trends · 1 signals
Tech·Digital Policy 2
- IssueMinilateral Korea-Japan-ASEAN cooperation through RCEP and a joint digital vision1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueUS economic security measures resist rollback and follow three paths2 trends · 1 signals
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 1
- IssueGrowing dependence on foreign technology and critical materials1 trends · 0 signals
Trends 27
Macroeconomy & Finance 2
- TrendCross-border positions widen and face political limits2 signals
- TrendRecord trade surplus without corresponding corporate earnings0 signals
Industry & Supply Chains 12
- TrendA Turnberry trade system beyond the WTO reshapes Northeast Asian production networks2 signals
- TrendAsymmetric US, EU and China policies expose technology-intensive exporters to layered risks0 signals
- TrendChinese circumvention exports routed through third countries including Korea increase2 signals
- TrendCross-border M&A binds the six to Asia's advanced economies and the United States4 signals
- TrendEU China policy shifts from engagement to de-risking3 signals
- TrendEconomic security drives reconfiguration of strategic supply chains, including clean energy11 signals
- TrendFrom efficiency and open trade to economic security; scarcity broadens1 signals
- TrendMegatrend 3: Decline and reordering of the free-trade system7 signals
- TrendProduction bases are diversifying and supply chains are forming regional blocs6 signals
- TrendProtectionism and sanctions pressuring supply chains and living standards0 signals
- TrendThe EU uses free trade agreements to diversify markets and suppliers0 signals
- TrendUS and Chinese extraterritorial controls push third countries to take sides5 signals
Resources, Food & Water 3
Geopolitics & Security 7
- TrendAdvanced economies compete aggressively for global talent with national recruitment strategies0 signals
- TrendCompetitiveness shifts from cost efficiency to geopolitical and regulatory agility3 signals
- TrendDeglobalization turns energy-transition materials into geopolitical bottlenecks2 signals
- TrendEast Asian firms challenging incumbent technology leaders1 signals
- TrendMacrotrend 5: semiconductors become a strategic asset and nations build end-to-end ecosystems9 signals
- TrendMineral-rich and processing countries gaining geopolitical leverage1 signals
- TrendRelative US decline and protectionism accelerate the retreat of globalization12 signals
Tech·Digital Policy 2
- TrendBorderless World - Fluid Economies3 signals
- TrendWashington moves from de-risking to strategic decoupling from China3 signals
Other 1
Signals 106
Macroeconomy & Finance 11
- SignalA $550 billion Japanese fund directed by the White House outside appropriations
- SignalAFTP report finds China missed Phase One commitments as the bilateral deficit widened
- SignalAround seven in ten expect tariff effects on shelf prices to be disclosed
- SignalChina's surplus exceeds Japan's 1987 peak relative to world GDP
- SignalExports equal about 40 percent of Korean GDP
- SignalGeoeconomic fragmentation is weakening cross-bloc flows
- SignalJapan and Germany reached net lending near 90% of GDP, the US net borrowing near 90%
- SignalMcKinsey Global Institute: US-China Decoupling Cut 2025 Global Trade Growth by 10%
- SignalModel results: US-China conflict and Russia sanctions are the main short-term drag on northern cooperation gains
- SignalU.S. Treasury Designates Russia-Linked Payment Network A7 a Transnational Criminal Organization
- SignalUS bilateral trade deals carry investment pledges exceeding 5 trillion dollars
Industry & Supply Chains 49
0-3 years 47
- Signal75% of chip buyers call narrow semiconductor vendor dependence a major challenge
- Signal82% of U.S. Manufacturers Reshoring; 25% of Global Trade to Relocate by 2026
- SignalAbout 40 percent of EU imports come from a few hard-to-replace suppliers
- SignalBank of Korea assumes US tariffs on Korean goods stay high, with new overcapacity and chip duties ahead
- SignalChina sanctions US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean and imposes special port fees
- SignalChina's export share surge and US tariffs squeeze Korean manufacturers
- SignalChina's rise as a manufacturing power cost US jobs and widened the 'red supply chain'
- SignalChinese goods exports up 40% since the housing crash while imports flatline
- SignalEU CBAM Expands to Auto Parts, Machinery, and Home Appliances - 180 Items to be Applied in 2028
- SignalEU Gives Final Approval to Implement U.S. Trade Agreement / EU Industrial Accelerator Act
- SignalEU import surveillance widens from trade diversion to structural overcapacity
- SignalEuropean Parliament votes to widen CBAM scope and close loopholes
- SignalExport controls widen and critical minerals become strategic assets as supply chains fragment
- SignalFact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Bolsters National Security and Strengthens U.S. Supply Chains by Imposing Tariffs on Drones and Their Parts and Components
- SignalFirst Korea-Central Asia Summit opens in Seoul, to adopt Seoul Declaration
- SignalHallyu influence coefficients for 2024: food 17.4%, cosmetics 17.1% and tourism 13.9%
- SignalJapan and the EU link subsidies and regulation to pull in chip investment
- SignalKorea and the US settled tariffs at 15 percent with 350 billion dollars in investment commitments
- SignalKorea ranks fourth in US circumvention cases and logged 192 illegal rerouting cases in five years
- SignalKorea's exports hit a record 709.7 billion dollars in 2025 as chip exports jump 22 percent
- SignalKorea's exposure indicators point to structural geopolitical vulnerability
- SignalKorean battery makers rely heavily on China for key materials
- SignalList of products from the United States subject to counter-tariffs effective September 8, 2026
- SignalMalaysia Seeks Deeper Tech Partnership With Korea Amid Surging Bilateral Trade
- SignalMalaysia Weighs Conditional Easing of Rare-Earth Export Moratorium
- SignalMinister LeBlanc in Washington again today as tariff deadline nears
- SignalModelled trade effects of the 2025 US-China tariff exchange on Korea
- SignalSingapore 18.9%, Japan 15.3%, the US 9.8%, South Korea 7.5% lead cross-border deal counts
- SignalSouth Korea, Argentina Sign Critical Minerals MOU Covering Full Lithium Value Chain
- SignalSovereignty gaps are dated to become visible between 2025 and 2027
- SignalThailand Implements New Business Registration Checks to Curb Nominee Arrangements
- SignalThe EU's goods trade deficit with China reached about 360 billion euros in 2025
- SignalThe Korea-EU FTA and digital agreements form the institutional base of bilateral economic ties
- SignalThomson Reuters Institute 2026 Global Trade Report: 72% of Trade Professionals Name US Tariffs Top Risk
- SignalTrade rose from 43% of UK GDP in 1970 to 70% in 2022
- SignalTrump 50% tariffs implemented on Canadian goods after trade negotiations suspended
- SignalTrump pauses 50% tariffs on Canadian goods for 3 days
- SignalTrump signs proclamation imposing Section 232 tariffs and minimum import prices on polysilicon
- SignalTrump threatens 50% tariff on Canadian autos and steel; Ontario threatens to cut power, minerals
- SignalU.S.-ASEAN Trade & Tariff Developments
- SignalUS Commerce Dept proposes Section 232 tariffs on 14 more metal derivative products
- SignalUS Court Says Trump Can Halt Tariff Exemption for Low-Cost Goods
- SignalUS Implements 50% Tariffs on Canada; Canada's Retaliatory Tariffs Take Effect September 8
- SignalUS imposes 40 percent tariffs and penalties on transshipment
- SignalUS reciprocal tariffs entrench protectionism as consumer-goods production shifts from China to India, Vietnam and Mexico
- SignalUS share of Chinese exports fell from 19 to 15 percent as Beijing diversified
- SignalWhy Chinese exports to Europe are rising: weak demand at home, limited trade diversion and coinciding import gains and output losses
Labor & Future of Work 3
- SignalDOE launches $100M PROSPECT workforce initiative as EXIM announces $58M in critical mineral loans
- SignalNew Section 301 tariffs on forced-labor goods take effect; Section 122 global tariff lapses
- SignalUSTR Proposes New Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs Covering Most Major U.S. Trading Partners
Climate Change & Adaptation 1
Resources, Food & Water 7
- SignalBSE led to a ten-year EU ban on British beef
- SignalChina's 2025 retaliation escalates from measured tariffs to rare earth controls
- SignalChina's gallium and germanium export controls and Indonesia's nickel ore export ban
- SignalKorea imports 95 percent of energy and more than 99 percent of critical minerals
- SignalKorea joined the US-led Minerals Security Partnership and IPEF to manage economic security risks
- SignalNew UK Critical Minerals Strategy due in 2025
- SignalWashington courts Central Asia on critical minerals and energy to decouple from China
Ecosystems & Biodiversity 2
Geopolitics & Security 20
0-3 years 20
- SignalApril 2025 US tariffs: universal launch, 90-day pause for partners and over 104 percent on China
- SignalChina Launches First National Security Investigation in Foreign Trade, Targeting Imported Office Equipment
- SignalEU agrees 21st Russia sanctions package; OFAC issues Russia, Cuba and counter-narcotics designations
- SignalEU plans most far-reaching sanctions package against Russia in autumn, foreign chief says
- SignalEU renews Russia sanctions but removes Usmanov at France's request
- SignalEuropean Commission Proposes Plan to Reduce Dependence on Foreign Technology / Military AI governance under strain: the US-China dialogue
- SignalHalf worry about regional compute dependence, and they see less opportunity in volatility
- SignalIndia, ASEAN and Latin America hedge between the two powers
- SignalMilestones in EU China policy: the 2019 Strategic Outlook, the frozen CAI and the 2023 Economic Security Strategy
- SignalNational Security and Investment Act 2021 upgraded investment screening
- SignalOFAC Issues General License 104B Updating Russia Sanctions on Diamond Imports
- SignalOctober 2025 summit yields one-year mutual suspensions of US and Chinese measures
- SignalRussia and China link the Eurasian Economic Union with the Belt and Road through 2015 and 2018 accords
- SignalTaiwan indicts Nvidia manager over alleged AI chip smuggling to China
- SignalThe IMF and the G7 have put global imbalances back on their agenda
- SignalTrade and policy uncertainty indices at post-2020 highs
- SignalUS Treasury sanctions Iranian crypto exchange BitBank over IRGC funding, Hormuz payments
- SignalUS Treasury sanctions multinational network supporting Iran's Mahan Air and IRGC
- SignalUS de-risking hardens into 'small yard, high fence' technology controls on China
- SignalWestern infrastructure initiatives for Eurasia, from BUILD to PGII, show no visible results
Democracy & Governance 3
Tech·Digital Policy 3
AI & Computing 1
Energy & Climate Tech 1
Other 5
- SignalCBP Blocks Indonesian Palm Oil Imports Over Forced Labor Findings
- SignalCanadian Dairy Farmers Warn Against Further Concessions Ahead of US Tariff Deadline
- SignalKorea and Chile agree to modernize FTA, restart joint trade committee after decade
- SignalMicron Sues Sanctioned Chinese Memory Maker YMTC Over Alleged Engineer Poaching and Technology Theft
- SignalUS Converts Section 338 Tariffs on Canadian Goods Into Outright Import Bans
Objects with this as a secondary topic 337
Macroeconomy & Finance 53
0-3 years 42
- SignalAbout half of Singapore's FDI inflows come from the US and Europe while its outflows go to Asia
- SignalBRICS payment initiatives, the mBridge CBDC project and the US GENIUS Act reshape cross-border money
- SignalCambodia's bank-related inflows turned negative in 2024 after driving growth to 2021
- TrendCapital leaving China is redistributed among developing regions without being replaced3 signals
- IssueChina may use yuan depreciation and inducements to split the US alliance network2 trends · 0 signals
- SignalChina sharply cut its US Treasury holdings while diversifying reserves
- SignalChina's total-economy wealth nearly equals that of the US once all sectors are counted
- TrendDeveloping regions diverge in capital mix while Southeast Asia's six concentrate on FDI4 signals
- IssueEntrenchment of structurally low global growth0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalExport licences and tariff relief converted into revenue and price concessions
- IssueFDI dominance coexists with sharply volatile portfolio and bank-related flows2 trends · 5 signals
- SignalFDI rose to 72.5% of inflows to the six as portfolio share fell from 21.5% to 8.5%
- SignalFDI to the six rose from $50.0bn in 2015 to $74.7bn in 2024, averaging 67.6% of inflows
- IssueFinancial security strategy against the renminbi balloon effect2 trends · 1 signals
- SignalFrance and Germany lost wealth in 2025 once exchange rate effects are removed
- SignalGOI 2026 coverage excludes China, Germany, Japan, and India for want of Business Ready data
- TrendGlobal growth diverging according to countries' participation in AI supply chains0 signals
- SignalInflows to China fell $295.2 billion, a 64.1% decline between the two four-year periods
- SignalKazakhstan and Uzbekistan multiplied their output between 1991 and 2023
- SignalLao PDR's FDI share rose as its absolute value slipped and bank flows went negative for three years
- SignalLatin America takes 22.5% of developing-economy inflows while the six take 8.8%
- TrendMajor economies enter 2026 on divergent balance sheet pathways5 signals
- SignalMalaysia and the Philippines saw FDI shares fall while their absolute FDI rose
- SignalMalaysia had the decade's most frequent reversals in capital inflows
- SignalMore than a third of US equity liabilities are owed abroad
- SignalPortfolio and bank-related flows, not FDI, drove the decade's variation in inflows
- SignalPortfolio flows were 36.9% of China's inflows before the contraction
- TrendRenminbi and Chinese capital gain weight in Korea through a balloon effect1 signals
- SignalRenminbi payment network and trade-finance share expand
- IssueRisks to Korea's growth path from swings in AI investment, Middle East tensions and US trade pressure1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueSustaining a fragile 2025 recovery amid tariffs, household debt and regional housing risks0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSwing factors for Korea's 2026 outlook: war, energy inflation, the AI cycle and trade uncertainty1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalThe EU remains the world's second-largest economy and its largest trader in goods and services
- SignalThe GOI is said to explain 66.2% of cross-country variation in FDI per capita
- SignalThe Philippines pairs 6th in Economic Performance with 56th in Business Perception
- SignalUK and Canadian wealth growth slipped in local currency while Canadian equity lifted paper wealth
- IssueUpside scenario: trade de-escalation, faster AI productivity gains and structural reform0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueUpside scenarios: early Middle East calm, AI productivity gains and faster trade de-escalation0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalVietnam ranks 39th overall on the strength of Economic Fundamentals
- SignalVietnam's FDI held at or above 53.0% of inflows while other components swung
- TrendWorld economy stays on a sub-par growth path under overlapping shocks0 signals
- SignalYuan settlement and Chinese capital rise in Korea's trade and capital markets
4-10 years 9
- IssueA cross-sectional correlation is turned into a policy lever1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalChina and India put at 35% of world population and 25% of world GDP
- IssueChina's debt-financed growth model runs into limits that only consumption can relieve1 trends · 2 signals
- TrendDoubts over dollar hegemony and a gradually rising global role for the renminbi3 signals
- IssueExtending the Korea-Japan currency swap and deepening regional financial cooperation0 trends · 0 signals
- TrendKorea risks sliding back to middle-income status as low growth meets demographic and trade headwinds1 signals
- SignalPwC cited: China already largest in PPP terms and largest at market rates before 2030
- IssueRegional finance runs through Singapore, which blurs where capital originates1 trends · 3 signals
- TrendUS equity grows into nearly half of the sampled world's corporate equity4 signals
11-30 years 2
- TrendKorea's income catch-up with the United States stalls0 signals
- IssueProductivity scenarios decide whether Korea avoids outright contraction2 trends · 0 signals
Industry & Supply Chains 61
0-3 years 32
- Signal90 percent plan to expand and strengthen their technology partnership ecosystem
- SignalAir freight rates spike as maritime routes are disrupted
- TrendAutomotive: EV adoption rises while margins lag on battery cost and Chinese competition2 signals
- SignalChina holds about 75% of battery output and 90% of neodymium magnets
- TrendChina's weak domestic demand and strong supply capacity push low-price exports0 signals
- TrendChinese capacity expansion and low-price offensives intensify global price competition0 signals
- IssueChinese competition threatens Korean market share in autos, petrochemicals and chips2 trends · 0 signals
- SignalCross-border deals are 49.2% of value but 40.3% of transactions in the six
- SignalEU Competitiveness Compass and a June 2026 technology sovereignty package target dependence
- SignalEarly warning 5: Strategic-technology market share
- SignalExport shares rose in 6 of 14 Chinese manufacturing sectors, led by cars and electrical machinery
- TrendGlobal demand for Korea's key industries is capped by war, tariffs and high oil despite AI and emerging markets0 signals
- IssueGovernment role in helping firms turn the 2026 triple inflection into opportunity2 trends · 0 signals
- SignalIndia, Vietnam, Thailand and Mexico are named as beneficiaries of reduced dependence on China
- SignalKorea and US tech giants commit to a $950 billion AI and chip alliance
- SignalKorea's leading exports stay locked in semiconductors and autos from 2000 to 2024
- TrendKorean manufacturers are expanding overseas production and localisation0 signals
- SignalOne $10.6bn Thai acquisition of Tesco Malaysia makes Thailand the top origin by value
- SignalPharma Tariffs 2026: Supply Chain & Manufacturing Impacts
- SignalReshoring and AI Power 2026 US Supply Chains — but reshoring strains persist
- SignalSemiconductor Supply Chain Fragmentation: TSMC, Nexperia Split, Tungsten Bottleneck
- SignalSemiconductors, biotech, clean energy and pharmaceuticals are named as strategic manufacturing
- SignalSupply Chain Concerns Doubled Amid Regulatory Complexity, Thomson Reuters and Xeneta Find
- SignalTSMC posts record Q1 2026; Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens chip supply chain
- SignalTariff Volatility Pushes Global Supply Chains into Regional Reset in 2026
- SignalThe 2022 US CHIPS and Science Act, the European Chips Act and Indian and Japanese investment are named
- SignalThe AI chip market is projected to quadruple to $500bn by 2029 while sovereign cloud triples
- TrendThree overlapping inflection points redefine corporate competitiveness in 20262 signals
- SignalUS Section 301 action and maritime executive order target Chinese shipbuilding
- SignalUS, German and Chinese players take distinct routes to factory physical AI
- SignalWEF Global Value Chains Outlook 2026 — Resilience Over Efficiency
- Signaltonies opened a Vietnam plant one day before US tariffs on Chinese goods
4-10 years 26
- SignalAI data centres revive hard disk drive demand, with world shipments up 28.1 percent in 2025
- IssueBalancing domestic and overseas investment to prevent hollowing out of strategic industries1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueBuilding a Caucasus cooperation strategy around logistics, renewables, agri-food and tourism0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueCapturing semiconductor value without owning a foundry1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueChina's self-reliance squeezes Korean exports while new Chinese bottlenecks open niches2 trends · 2 signals
- TrendChinese overcapacity pressure concentrates on strategic EU manufacturing sectors3 signals
- TrendCompetition and complementarity coexist between Korean and EU strategic industries1 signals
- TrendEU industrial policy moves to direct support for strategic production and supply-chain resilience2 signals
- TrendEroding global OLED share limits Korean display export growth1 signals
- TrendGlobal supply chains strained and trade relations fragmenting5 signals
- IssueHardware costs of generative AI phones slow diffusion in price-sensitive markets1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendICT exports carry Korean growth while external uncertainty and AI reshape the sector0 signals
- SignalIndia approves 12 semiconductor manufacturing projects worth ~$17.2B; IndiaAI Mission builds 45,000+ GPU compute centers
- SignalKorean firms see US and Chinese rivals pulling ahead in main industries by 2030
- TrendMature smartphone market and relocated production restrain Korean communication equipment exports1 signals
- SignalMore than 400 billion dollars of pharma commitments to US facilities create a new AI testbed
- IssueMounting an all-out response to China's rapid technological rise and securing defence-linked manufacturing0 trends · 3 signals
- TrendOffshoring of device and component production caps domestic ICT output growth1 signals
- TrendRevival of industrial policy fragments global supply chains8 signals
- TrendStory 4: efficiency is redefined around reliability and political alignment7 signals
- IssueStrategy 3: pool national capacity from technology to industry for technology-led growth3 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTechnology sovereignty, Chinese catch-up and changing cycles as limits on Korean chip growth1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendUS reliance on China falls while China's global supplier role holds3 signals
- TrendUS-China maritime rivalry spreads from navigation rights to shipbuilding and logistics2 signals
- TrendUS-centred restructuring of supply and value chains accelerates amid slowing globalization11 signals
- IssueWatch point: technology improves chains enough that dramatic reorganization becomes unnecessary1 trends · 0 signals
11-30 years 2
- TrendHome and distributed 3D printing decentralising manufacturing1 signals
- IssueInstitutionalizing Korea-Japan supply chain and economic security cooperation1 trends · 0 signals
Other 1
- IssueGoing All-Digital1 trends · 0 signals
Labor & Future of Work 2
- IssueThe Real Work-From-Anywhere Revolution1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalWhen AI Enters the Workplace, Who Faces Greater Risks? A Gendered Analysis
Climate Change & Adaptation 6
- TrendAccelerating climate change makes disasters real and tightens global climate regulation5 signals
- SignalArctic warming four times faster; shipping mileage up 108% in a decade
- SignalCarbon pricing spreads to 73 countries and the EU carbon border mechanism takes effect
- TrendClimate change turns into a core economic variable as carbon regulation tightens2 signals
- SignalEU CBAM enters definitive implementation phase on 1 January 2026
- TrendTrade-linked carbon regulation makes climate capacity a core of industrial competitiveness4 signals
Resources, Food & Water 21
0-3 years 10
- SignalA $666 billion circumpolar economy with 13% of undiscovered oil
- IssueAccelerating weaponisation of environmental resources under climate change1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalChina supplies all of the EU's imported heavy rare earth elements
- SignalChina's expanding critical mineral export controls culminate in a Chinese FDPR
- SignalFive named mineral holders have explored OPEC style supply management
- SignalGuardian/EIA Investigation Finds UK Plastic Waste Contaminating Turkish Farmland
- SignalIndia's Cabinet Approves Rs 84,084 Crore 'Samudra Manthan' National Offshore Exploration Scheme
- IssueKorean vulnerability: Critical-mineral dependence0 trends · 1 signals
- SignalMarcos signs Executive Order 122 establishing a unified critical minerals policy framework
- SignalUK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre established
4-10 years 8
- IssueAgenda 4: Strengthening full-cycle R&D innovation to secure rare minerals2 trends · 1 signals
- TrendBiomining: using microorganisms to recover critical minerals2 signals
- TrendClimate and trade intensifying plant pest outbreaks9 signals
- SignalCritical Metals Corp Advances to Final Round of Kenya Government Tender for the Mrima Hill Rare Earth and Niobium Project
- TrendFossil-free ammonia and fertilisers through electrolysis, new catalysis and biological fixation0 signals
- TrendRace for scarce resources0 signals
- TrendRising, geographically concentrated demand for critical minerals4 signals
- IssueThe Netherlands' large resource footprint in the Global South1 trends · 1 signals
11-30 years 2
Other 1
- IssueScarce battery metals fuelling conflict and corruption in producer countries1 trends · 0 signals
Ecosystems & Biodiversity 1
Geopolitics & Security 101
0-3 years 49
- Signal72% of leaders say geopolitical uncertainty is affecting their organizations
- SignalAmong the less affected, a third credit a diversified footprint
- SignalAtlantic Council: Eight ways AI will shape geopolitics in 2026; US AI Action Plan
- SignalBRICS Summit 2026: 18th Summit Adopts New Delhi Declaration
- SignalC5+1 dialogues with Central Asia multiply and move to summit level, while Korea's summit slips
- SignalCanada's Carney pursues 'unique alliance' with EU amid US trade war
- SignalChina has launched three global initiatives since 2021 to court the Global South
- SignalChina's 2025 white papers draw red lines and frame the conflict as a set of wars
- SignalEU sanctions seven persons, three entities over Southeast Asia scam centre human rights abuses
- SignalGeopolitics Reshaping Semiconductor Supply Chain Risk in 2026 / US-China Chip War
- SignalIAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over safeguards breach
- SignalIndividuals linked to Putin seen as highest sanctions evasion risk
- IssueInfrastructure is positioned as the backbone of both innovation and national sovereignty1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalJapan, the EU and Taiwan adopt distinct strategies toward the US-China rivalry
- IssueKorea as a stable anchor linking fragmented blocs through pragmatic idealism2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKorea must secure chokepoint technologies by riding the hegemon's security strategy1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueManaging Korea-Russia ties under sanctions through dialogue channels, safety nets and sanctions-aware planning1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalNew administrations in the US and Korea reshape the 2025 policy environment
- SignalOil Rallies as Iran Adopts Offensive Stance Over Hormuz
- SignalReport states 36 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS
- TrendShift 4: geopolitical fragmentation reshapes value chains and organizational design17 signals
- SignalSoutheast Asia records over 230 tons of methamphetamine seized in 2024
- SignalSurvey of 264 Korean experts expects a prolonged rivalry and less dependence on both powers
- SignalTSMC Semiconductor Supply Chain Under Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk
- SignalTaiwan Investigates 17 Chinese Tech Companies Over Illegal Recruitment of High-Tech Talent
- SignalThe EU raises private space investment to reduce reliance on US capability
- SignalThe European Chips Act is cited as the EU's parallel industrial policy instrument
- SignalThe Shanghai Cooperation Organisation grows from the Shanghai Five to ten full members
- SignalThe US CHIPS and Science Act is cited at roughly $52.7bn for manufacturing and research
- SignalThe leading AI chip vendor reports over 20 billion dollars of sovereign AI revenue in 2025
- SignalThe report is the stated follow-up to the May 2023 Geotechnomics foresight brief
- SignalThirty-five years of Northern Policy lifted Korea's standing and opened northern markets
- SignalTrump presses allies on defense costs and NATO, courts Russia's G7 return and sidelines the WTO
- SignalTurkey and South Africa are named as rising while Australia and New Zealand are said to be losing ground
- SignalU.S. to Tell Allies They Must Pick Sides in AI Race With China: Reuters
- SignalUAE Halts All Trade and Financial Transactions with Iran Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions
- SignalUK announces new Russia sanctions package targeting military supply chain
- SignalUS 2025 security moves: AI Action Plan, Department of War rename and FY2027 R&D priorities
- SignalUS Presses NATO Allies on Ideological Loyalty Ahead of Troop Cuts
- SignalUS Senate Passes Sweeping Russia Sanctions Bill Named for Late Sen. Lindsey Graham
- SignalUS Treasury Launches 'Operation Economic Outcast' Sanctions Campaign Against Iran
- SignalUS blocks Iran's nuclear chief from IAEA General Conference in Vienna
- SignalUS legislation and arms ties bolster Taiwan's standing amid Chinese protests
- SignalUS strategy documents designate China a strategic adversary and geopolitical rival
- SignalUS widens Iran sanctions; Iran vows retaliation as diplomacy stalls
- SignalUS–Iran conflict escalates: naval blockade reinstated, new sanctions, ICC targeted
- SignalUkraine's Zelenskyy Signs Decree Sanctioning 23 Companies, 20 Individuals Supporting Russia's Defense Industry
- SignalWhite House Declares National Emergency to Secure US Bulk-Power System, Addresses Drone Threats
- SignalXinhua: APEC Meetings in Chengdu Promoted AI Development and Cooperation
4-10 years 40
- Signal"Pax Silica" Framework: Nine Nations Formalize AI Infrastructure as Geopolitical Alliance Asset
- IssueArctic governance fractures as competition replaces cooperation1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendChina pursues a China-oriented international order through BRICS ties and non-binding partnerships1 signals
- TrendChina-Russia partnership deepens toward an entente that knits Eurasia together2 signals
- TrendCompeting alliance networks in the Indo-Pacific as US coordination loosens0 signals
- TrendCompound economic and new security threats weaken multilateralism and global governance3 signals
- IssueCompute-restriction tactics have stopped working and the report warns of technological brinkmanship1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendErosion of the external pillars behind Europe's post-Cold War growth3 signals
- TrendEurasian regionalism underpinned post-Soviet stability and growth2 signals
- IssueEurasian states face a new integration dilemma that forces them to choose sides3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueExpanding the Northern Policy into a broader New Eurasia Strategy1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueExport-led US allies such as Korea, Japan and Germany lose strategic autonomy3 trends · 1 signals
- TrendFour pillars of the liberal international order come under simultaneous pressure3 signals
- TrendFrom liberalisation to scarcity, rivalry and defending own values0 signals
- IssueGeopolitical distance becomes an input to organizational design1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendGeopolitical instability raising the threat of violence0 signals
- TrendGeotechnomics: geopolitics, technology and economics converge into one change dynamic4 signals
- TrendGlobal South moving to flexible multipolar partnerships3 signals
- TrendGlobal science and technology governance fragments into a regime complex of rival technology blocs3 signals
- TrendGreat-power rivalry and protectionism push the world toward a multipolar, bloc-based order16 signals
- IssueIntegration dilemmas born of power asymmetry among Russia, China, the EU and smaller Eurasian states2 trends · 2 signals
- IssueKey point: research and technology already inside the geostrategic contest1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKorea-Japan relations enter a new era amid US pressure and deep economic interdependence1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendKorea-Russia relations stall under prolonged sanctions and structural change0 signals
- IssueModernising the ROK-US alliance and pragmatic diplomacy toward the US, China and Japan1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendMore and longer armed conflicts driven by economic interests1 signals
- IssueMultilateralism off the rails1 trends · 6 signals
- TrendSecuritisation of science and technology slows international research collaboration2 signals
- IssueSouth China Sea disputes and Chinese structures in the Yellow Sea1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendStory 3: smaller states holding strategic resources gain outsized influence7 signals
- TrendStructural reordering of the international order and the return of great-power politics3 signals
- TrendThe post-Cold War order enters a structural transition with 2025 as the turning point0 signals
- TrendThe rules-based international order is eroding1 signals
- TrendUS and European influence in Eurasia recedes behind that of Russia and China4 signals
- TrendUS national security strategy fuses tariffs, export controls, R&D and AI around advanced technology6 signals
- TrendUS-China rivalry hardens into a prolonged structural clash of national strategies4 signals
- SignalUS-Japan $1 Billion Tech Alliance: AI, Quantum, Fusion, Biotechnology
- TrendWashington pursues a composite strategy of burden sharing and restored great-power politics5 signals
- IssueWatch point: small and middle powers with room to manoeuvre form more flexible alignments1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWhether Washington can contain China when Soviet-style containment and full decoupling are impractical3 trends · 0 signals
11-30 years 10
- IssueA more competitive geopolitical environment framed around the China challenge1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalG7 economic and political influence projected to shift to E7 by 2050
- TrendGeopolitics driver: three variant paths from a second globalisation to a wild era0 signals
- TrendMegatrend 5: Uncertainty of the global order0 signals
- TrendMegatrend 7: shift of power towards the East and the South8 signals
- IssueMulti-layered and fluid global governance0 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePermanent split of the world order toward 20401 trends · 0 signals
- TrendTrend N: Fracturing of global governance into rival blocs1 signals
- TrendTrend O: Complex geopolitics of technology, economy and security6 signals
- TrendUS-China strategic rivalry broadens from tariffs toward military competition4 signals
Other 2
- IssueScenario: mandatory domestic supply chains force clouds to split AI workloads by bloc1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueScenarios for the complex geopolitical order of technology, economy and security0 trends · 0 signals
Democracy & Governance 6
- Signal38 Global Civil Society Organizations file joint brief in US lawsuit challenging legality of Trump's ICC sanctions
- TrendAmerica First retreat lets China fill multilateral gaps in a post-American world2 signals
- IssueDecentralised science as cross-border research infrastructure1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueDivergent member-state interests over China complicate a unified EU response1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGlobal middle-power coordination with like-positioned countries1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueThe EU lags global leaders and is itself split between northern and southern member states1 trends · 0 signals
Tech·Digital Policy 35
0-3 years 23
- Signal2026 AI Policy and Semiconductor Outlook: Federal Preemption, State AI Laws, and Chip Export Controls
- Signal93% say AI sovereignty must enter 2026 strategy
- IssueAI sovereignty defined as continuous control over systems, data and infrastructure1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalAudit found 45% of a Google training dataset restricted by site terms of service
- SignalChina Issues First Systematic Revision of IC Layout-Design Protection Regulation Since 2001
- SignalData residency rules can strand models trained on foreign infrastructure
- IssueDeregulation of public-sector cloud opens Korea's market to global and Chinese providers1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalEU 2026, NSA January 2027 and Google 2029 set the migration deadlines
- SignalEU AI Act defines prohibited uses and assigns responsibility to developers and deployers
- TrendGlobal AI resilience will require a local safety net7 signals
- SignalIndonesia seeks AI sovereignty through local models, digital talent
- TrendInsight 18: jurisdictions diverge on what AI regulation is even for10 signals
- TrendInsight 19: scarcity of quality data turns acquisition into a contest over rules5 signals
- SignalNear-universal data protection law paired with regulatory divergence
- SignalNon-US model developers market data residency and regulatory compliance as the product
- TrendProtectionism fracturing technology ecosystems and interoperability0 signals
- IssueTech dominance and critical minerals need targeted mitigation2 trends · 0 signals
- SignalTechnology supply chain choke points already caused disruption in 2025
- SignalThe EU AI Act phases in general-purpose AI obligations with a voluntary code
- SignalThe chip vendor's non-US investments concentrate where regulation and data residency create local advantage
- SignalUS Foreign Direct Product Rule widens to AI models and HBM, constraining Korean fabs in China
- SignalUS links AI-driven science with reshoring, export controls and tax credits for chips
- SignalUS, China and EU policy stances for 2026 converge on technology leadership and economic independence
4-10 years 11
- IssueAutomated compliance routing for cross-border data1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueBalancing the EU's global regulatory reach with business competitiveness1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueCumulative EU compliance costs for Korean firms and their suppliers1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalDigital Sovereignty: The Global South's Predicament and How to Measure It
- SignalEU, Japan, South Korea and several African states move on polymers and single-use plastics
- TrendEurope is repositioning toward regulatory guardrails and digital sovereignty5 signals
- IssueInternational standards for stablecoins issued outside bank supervision1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendMajor powers treat science and technology as strategic assets for sovereignty and innovation ecosystems7 signals
- IssueRefining ecosystems, sorbent validation and mineral regulation are missing where the new hubs would sit1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendScience and technology policy is being securitized amid geopolitical conflict and technology rivalry4 signals
- IssueTreating cyberspace as a commons rather than as territory1 trends · 0 signals
Other 1
- IssueFragmented approval rules and unsettled strain ownership sit under the transition1 trends · 0 signals
Demographics & Migration 1
Cities & Housing 1
- IssueInfrastructure: national strategies lock in access for decades1 trends · 0 signals
Welfare & Health 6
- Signal241 Salmonella cases in travellers returning from Türkiye in 2023
- IssueAI widens gaps between large and small firms and between rich and poor countries, including inside the EU1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendEmergence and recurrence of animal diseases rising7 signals
- TrendNew trade partners raising risk of imported resistant foodborne strains0 signals
- IssueRising meat demand and livestock trade raising pandemic risk1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendTrade shifts exposing the UK to new animal diseases0 signals
Education & Generations 3
- SignalKorea's IMD ranking for attracting highly skilled talent improved from 49th to 38th but remains mid-to-low
- IssuePublic Publications1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe plan seeks an integrated national talent system to enter the IMD brain-drain top 20 and recruit 2,000 top researchers1 trends · 5 signals
AI & Computing 18
0-3 years 8
- TrendAI data-centre investment is structurally shifting memory demand and supply toward high-value chips2 signals
- TrendAI infrastructure becomes the new battleground for technological hegemony10 signals
- SignalChina files more than twice as many patent applications as the US
- SignalChina's Dongfang Suanxin unveils first 3D near-memory computing AI chip
- SignalDeepSeek Launches V4-Pro and Raises API Prices by as Much as 1,100%
- SignalKorea's AI technology and ecosystem gap with the United States and China is widening
- SignalNVIDIA holds over 80 percent of the global GPU market as custom AI chips emerge
- SignalUS institutions produced 61 notable AI models in 2023 against the EU's 21 and China's 15
4-10 years 9
- SignalAI semiconductor market projected to grow from about 94.5 billion to 931.3 billion dollars by 2034
- SignalChina and India cast as engines of innovation, investment and wealth creation
- IssueClimate, sustainability and social good are under-researched, and poorer countries are outside the network1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGeoeconomic limits on Korea-China cooperation in NEXT strategic technologies2 trends · 1 signals
- TrendGlobal AI competition shifts to how fast technology, markets and society form a virtuous cycle2 signals
- TrendTechnology convergence, intensifying global competition and the push for technological sovereignty0 signals
- IssueTechnology: frontier constraints become technology constraints1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTechnology: sovereign requirements turn multinationals into targets1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalUK Bets £4.5 Billion on Quantum and Fusion Independence
Other 1
- IssueTelepossible1 trends · 0 signals
Energy & Climate Tech 16
0-3 years 8
- SignalCarbon border rules, RE100 demands and cluster power needs expose Korea's energy transition gap
- SignalChina produced 65 per cent of the world's new solar and wind power in 2024
- SignalCritica Cuts Jupiter Acid Consumption by Around 30% in Hydrometallurgical Breakthrough
- SignalMiddle East war removed about 17 percent of global LNG supply and damaged Qatari liquefaction capacity in 2026
- TrendOverpowered: China masters the electric stack while the US cedes it5 signals
- SignalRenewables supply most new capacity and overtake coal globally, while Korea's share was 10.6 percent in 2024
- SignalRussian gas fell from about 45 to 12 percent of EU gas imports between 2021 and 2025
- SignalUS oil output at 13.5 million barrels a day, largest producer since 2018
4-10 years 6
- TrendChina is driving the rise of the electrostate4 signals
- TrendChinese dominance in clean-energy manufacturing and finance1 signals
- TrendDefensive industrial policy against China's green-industry dominance feeds protectionism1 signals
- TrendNew LNG supply, led by the United States, pushing global gas prices down toward oversupply by 20290 signals
- IssueSecuring and substituting critical materials as an energy-security technology task2 trends · 1 signals
- TrendTechnology 2: lithium moves from evaporation ponds to engineered direct extraction2 signals
11-30 years 2
- IssueExpanding decarbonisation of energy-demand sectors0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueLow-carbon transition of energy supply0 trends · 1 signals
Space & Mobility 1
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 3
- IssueGlobal technology gaps and digital inequality0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueThe Network of Networks1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: infrastructure owners withhold essential services as bargaining leverage1 trends · 0 signals