E4 Trade & Economic Security
by main topic: 47
Issues 10
- IssueA new phase of globalisation that also produces unexpected instability1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueAutomotive resilience is framed as diversified suppliers, codesigned chips and localized manufacturing1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueBeyond Classifications1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGlobal supply models are declared unable to guarantee resilience, cost stability or competitiveness1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueNew free trade zones and rising protectionism at the same time1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePolicy area 3: states balance strategic interest, core values and competitiveness at once3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueRerouting through third countries may raise indirect imports from China rather than cut them1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueSilicon sovereignty is broken into six levers including critical minerals and energy1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: reconfiguration slides into protectionism that buys resilience with inflation1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: trade shifts stabilize or destabilize geopolitics depending on connectedness1 trends · 0 signals
Trends 5
- TrendBorderless World - Fluid Economies3 signals
- TrendCross-border M&A binds the six to Asia's advanced economies and the United States4 signals
- TrendCross-border positions widen and face political limits2 signals
- TrendMacrotrend 5: semiconductors become a strategic asset and nations build end-to-end ecosystems5 signals
- TrendRecord trade surplus without corresponding corporate earnings0 signals
Signals 32
- Signal75% of chip buyers call narrow semiconductor vendor dependence a major challenge
- Signal82% of U.S. Manufacturers Reshoring; 25% of Global Trade to Relocate by 2026
- SignalA $550 billion Japanese fund directed by the White House outside appropriations
- SignalAround seven in ten expect tariff effects on shelf prices to be disclosed
- SignalChina Launches First National Security Investigation in Foreign Trade, Targeting Imported Office Equipment
- SignalChina's surplus exceeds Japan's 1987 peak relative to world GDP
- SignalChinese goods exports up 40% since the housing crash while imports flatline
- SignalChinese renewable technology exports overtake US fossil fuel exports
- SignalEU Gives Final Approval to Implement U.S. Trade Agreement / EU Industrial Accelerator Act
- SignalEU agrees 21st Russia sanctions package; OFAC issues Russia, Cuba and counter-narcotics designations
- SignalEuropean Commission Proposes Plan to Reduce Dependence on Foreign Technology / Military AI governance under strain: the US-China dialogue
- SignalFrontier model export control suspension and reinstatement (Fable 5 / Mythos 5)
- SignalHalf worry about regional compute dependence, and they see less opportunity in volatility
- SignalJapan and Germany reached net lending near 90% of GDP, the US net borrowing near 90%
- SignalKorea and Chile agree to modernize FTA, restart joint trade committee after decade
- SignalMcKinsey Global Institute: US-China Decoupling Cut 2025 Global Trade Growth by 10%
- SignalNew Section 301 tariffs on forced-labor goods take effect; Section 122 global tariff lapses
- SignalS&P Global: ports reinvent themselves as 'circular economy hubs'
- SignalSingapore 18.9%, Japan 15.3%, the US 9.8%, South Korea 7.5% lead cross-border deal counts
- SignalSouth Korea, Argentina Sign Critical Minerals MOU Covering Full Lithium Value Chain
- SignalSovereignty gaps are dated to become visible between 2025 and 2027
- SignalThailand Implements New Business Registration Checks to Curb Nominee Arrangements
- SignalThe IMF and the G7 have put global imbalances back on their agenda
- SignalThomson Reuters Institute 2026 Global Trade Report: 72% of Trade Professionals Name US Tariffs Top Risk
- SignalTrade and policy uncertainty indices at post-2020 highs
- SignalTrump directs USTR Section 301 tariff action against Brazil over trade practices and deforestation
- SignalU.S. Trade Representative Proposes Sweeping Section 301 Tariffs to Combat Global Trade of Forced Labor Goods
- SignalU.S.-ASEAN Trade & Tariff Developments
- SignalUS Commerce Dept lifts export controls, Claude Fable 5 fully restored after 19-day shutdown
- SignalUS Treasury sanctions multinational network supporting Iran's Mahan Air and IRGC
- SignalUSTR Proposes New Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs Covering Most Major U.S. Trading Partners
- SignalUSTR imposes new Section 301 forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies after IEEPA tariffs lapse
Objects with this as a secondary topic 151
- Signal"Pax Silica" Framework: Nine Nations Formalize AI Infrastructure as Geopolitical Alliance Asset
- Signal2026 AI Policy and Semiconductor Outlook: Federal Preemption, State AI Laws, and Chip Export Controls
- Signal72% of leaders say geopolitical uncertainty is affecting their organizations
- Signal90 percent plan to expand and strengthen their technology partnership ecosystem
- Signal93% say AI sovereignty must enter 2026 strategy
- SignalA $666 billion circumpolar economy with 13% of undiscovered oil
- IssueA cross-sectional correlation is turned into a policy lever1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueA more competitive geopolitical environment framed around the China challenge1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueAI sovereignty defined as continuous control over systems, data and infrastructure1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueAI widens gaps between large and small firms and between rich and poor countries, including inside the EU1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalAbout half of Singapore's FDI inflows come from the US and Europe while its outflows go to Asia
- SignalAir freight rates spike as maritime routes are disrupted
- SignalAmong the less affected, a third credit a diversified footprint
- IssueArctic governance fractures as competition replaces cooperation1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalArctic warming four times faster; shipping mileage up 108% in a decade
- SignalAtlantic Council: Eight ways AI will shape geopolitics in 2026; US AI Action Plan
- SignalAudit found 45% of a Google training dataset restricted by site terms of service
- IssueAutomated compliance routing for cross-border data1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendAutomotive: EV adoption rises while margins lag on battery cost and Chinese competition2 signals
- SignalCambodia's bank-related inflows turned negative in 2024 after driving growth to 2021
- TrendCapital leaving China is redistributed among developing regions without being replaced3 signals
- IssueCapturing semiconductor value without owning a foundry1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalChina Issues First Systematic Revision of IC Layout-Design Protection Regulation Since 2001
- SignalChina and India cast as engines of innovation, investment and wealth creation
- SignalChina and India put at 35% of world population and 25% of world GDP
- SignalChina holds about 75% of battery output and 90% of neodymium magnets
- TrendChina is driving the rise of the electrostate2 signals
- SignalChina produced 65 per cent of the world's new solar and wind power in 2024
- SignalChina's Dongfang Suanxin unveils first 3D near-memory computing AI chip
- IssueChina's debt-financed growth model runs into limits that only consumption can relieve1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalChina's total-economy wealth nearly equals that of the US once all sectors are counted
- IssueClimate, sustainability and social good are under-researched, and poorer countries are outside the network1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueCompute-restriction tactics have stopped working and the report warns of technological brinkmanship1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalCritica Cuts Jupiter Acid Consumption by Around 30% in Hydrometallurgical Breakthrough
- SignalCritical Metals Corp Advances to Final Round of Kenya Government Tender for the Mrima Hill Rare Earth and Niobium Project
- SignalCross-border deals are 49.2% of value but 40.3% of transactions in the six
- SignalData residency rules can strand models trained on foreign infrastructure
- IssueDecentralised science as cross-border research infrastructure1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendDeveloping regions diverge in capital mix while Southeast Asia's six concentrate on FDI4 signals
- SignalDigital Sovereignty: The Global South's Predicament and How to Measure It
- SignalEU 2026, NSA January 2027 and Google 2029 set the migration deadlines
- SignalEU AI Act defines prohibited uses and assigns responsibility to developers and deployers
- SignalEU CBAM Enters Definitive Stage January 2026: First Operational Border Carbon Tax
- SignalEU CBAM enters definitive implementation phase on 1 January 2026
- SignalEU sanctions seven persons, three entities over Southeast Asia scam centre human rights abuses
- SignalEU, Japan, South Korea and several African states move on polymers and single-use plastics
- TrendEurope is repositioning toward regulatory guardrails and digital sovereignty0 signals
- SignalExport licences and tariff relief converted into revenue and price concessions
- IssueFDI dominance coexists with sharply volatile portfolio and bank-related flows2 trends · 5 signals
- SignalFDI rose to 72.5% of inflows to the six as portfolio share fell from 21.5% to 8.5%
- SignalFDI to the six rose from $50.0bn in 2015 to $74.7bn in 2024, averaging 67.6% of inflows
- SignalFive named mineral holders have explored OPEC style supply management
- IssueFragmented approval rules and unsettled strain ownership sit under the transition1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalFrance and Germany lost wealth in 2025 once exchange rate effects are removed
- SignalG7 economic and political influence projected to shift to E7 by 2050
- SignalGOI 2026 coverage excludes China, Germany, Japan, and India for want of Business Ready data
- IssueGeopolitical distance becomes an input to organizational design1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalGeopolitics Reshaping Semiconductor Supply Chain Risk in 2026 / US-China Chip War
- TrendGeotechnomics: geopolitics, technology and economics converge into one change dynamic4 signals
- TrendGlobal AI resilience will require a local safety net5 signals
- IssueGoing All-Digital1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalGuardian/EIA Investigation Finds UK Plastic Waste Contaminating Turkish Farmland
- SignalIndia approves 12 semiconductor manufacturing projects worth ~$17.2B; IndiaAI Mission builds 45,000+ GPU compute centers
- SignalIndia to fit homegrown chips into space rockets, minister says
- SignalIndia's Cabinet Approves Rs 84,084 Crore 'Samudra Manthan' National Offshore Exploration Scheme
- SignalIndia, Vietnam, Thailand and Mexico are named as beneficiaries of reduced dependence on China
- SignalIndonesia seeks AI sovereignty through local models, digital talent
- SignalInflows to China fell $295.2 billion, a 64.1% decline between the two four-year periods
- IssueInfrastructure is positioned as the backbone of both innovation and national sovereignty1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueInfrastructure: national strategies lock in access for decades1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendInsight 18: jurisdictions diverge on what AI regulation is even for2 signals
- TrendInsight 19: scarcity of quality data turns acquisition into a contest over rules2 signals
- IssueInternational standards for stablecoins issued outside bank supervision1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKey point: research and technology already inside the geostrategic contest1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalKorea and US tech giants commit to a $950 billion AI and chip alliance
- SignalLao PDR's FDI share rose as its absolute value slipped and bank flows went negative for three years
- SignalLatin America takes 22.5% of developing-economy inflows while the six take 8.8%
- TrendMajor economies enter 2026 on divergent balance sheet pathways5 signals
- SignalMalaysia and the Philippines saw FDI shares fall while their absolute FDI rose
- SignalMalaysia had the decade's most frequent reversals in capital inflows
- TrendMegatrend 7: shift of power towards the East and the South8 signals
- SignalMore than 400 billion dollars of pharma commitments to US facilities create a new AI testbed
- SignalMore than a third of US equity liabilities are owed abroad
- IssueMultilateralism off the rails1 trends · 6 signals
- SignalNear-universal data protection law paired with regulatory divergence
- SignalNon-US model developers market data residency and regulatory compliance as the product
- SignalOne $10.6bn Thai acquisition of Tesco Malaysia makes Thailand the top origin by value
- TrendOverpowered: China masters the electric stack while the US cedes it5 signals
- SignalPharma Tariffs 2026: Supply Chain & Manufacturing Impacts
- SignalPopulations diverging: Egypt adding 21 million while more than 50 countries shrink
- SignalPortfolio and bank-related flows, not FDI, drove the decade's variation in inflows
- SignalPortfolio flows were 36.9% of China's inflows before the contraction
- IssuePublic Publications1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalPwC cited: China already largest in PPP terms and largest at market rates before 2030
- TrendRace for scarce resources0 signals
- IssueRefining ecosystems, sorbent validation and mineral regulation are missing where the new hubs would sit1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueRegional finance runs through Singapore, which blurs where capital originates1 trends · 3 signals
- SignalReport states 36 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS
- SignalReshoring and AI Power 2026 US Supply Chains — but reshoring strains persist
- IssueScenario: mandatory domestic supply chains force clouds to split AI workloads by bloc1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalSemiconductor Supply Chain Fragmentation: TSMC, Nexperia Split, Tungsten Bottleneck
- SignalSemiconductors, biotech, clean energy and pharmaceuticals are named as strategic manufacturing
- TrendShift 4: geopolitical fragmentation reshapes value chains and organizational design12 signals
- SignalSoutheast Asia records over 230 tons of methamphetamine seized in 2024
- TrendStory 3: smaller states holding strategic resources gain outsized influence6 signals
- TrendStory 4: efficiency is redefined around reliability and political alignment4 signals
- SignalStrategic Non-Alignment Rising: Africa, Middle East, Latin America Avoid Binary Choices
- SignalSupply Chain Concerns Doubled Amid Regulatory Complexity, Thomson Reuters and Xeneta Find
- SignalTSMC Q1 2026 Record Revenue Amid Semiconductor Supply Chain Risk
- SignalTSMC Semiconductor Supply Chain Under Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk
- SignalTSMC posts record Q1 2026; Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens chip supply chain
- SignalTaiwan Investigates 17 Chinese Tech Companies Over Illegal Recruitment of High-Tech Talent
- SignalTariff Volatility Pushes Global Supply Chains into Regional Reset in 2026
- TrendTechnology 2: lithium moves from evaporation ponds to engineered direct extraction2 signals
- SignalTechnology supply chain choke points already caused disruption in 2025
- IssueTechnology: frontier constraints become technology constraints1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTechnology: sovereign requirements turn multinationals into targets1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTelepossible1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalThe 2022 US CHIPS and Science Act, the European Chips Act and Indian and Japanese investment are named
- SignalThe AI chip market is projected to quadruple to $500bn by 2029 while sovereign cloud triples
- SignalThe EU AI Act phases in general-purpose AI obligations with a voluntary code
- IssueThe EU lags global leaders and is itself split between northern and southern member states1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalThe EU raises private space investment to reduce reliance on US capability
- SignalThe European Chips Act is cited as the EU's parallel industrial policy instrument
- SignalThe GOI is said to explain 66.2% of cross-country variation in FDI per capita
- IssueThe Network of Networks1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalThe Philippines pairs 6th in Economic Performance with 56th in Business Perception
- IssueThe Real Work-From-Anywhere Revolution1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalThe US CHIPS and Science Act is cited at roughly $52.7bn for manufacturing and research
- SignalThe chip vendor's non-US investments concentrate where regulation and data residency create local advantage
- SignalThe leading AI chip vendor reports over 20 billion dollars of sovereign AI revenue in 2025
- SignalThe report is the stated follow-up to the May 2023 Geotechnomics foresight brief
- TrendThe rules-based international order is eroding0 signals
- IssueTreating cyberspace as a commons rather than as territory1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalTurkey and South Africa are named as rising while Australia and New Zealand are said to be losing ground
- SignalUK Bets £4.5 Billion on Quantum and Fusion Independence
- SignalUK and Canadian wealth growth slipped in local currency while Canadian equity lifted paper wealth
- TrendUS equity grows into nearly half of the sampled world's corporate equity4 signals
- SignalUS institutions produced 61 notable AI models in 2023 against the EU's 21 and China's 15
- SignalUS oil output at 13.5 million barrels a day, largest producer since 2018
- SignalUS-Japan $1 Billion Tech Alliance: AI, Quantum, Fusion, Biotechnology
- SignalUS–Iran conflict escalates: naval blockade reinstated, new sanctions, ICC targeted
- SignalUkraine's Zelenskyy Signs Decree Sanctioning 23 Companies, 20 Individuals Supporting Russia's Defense Industry
- SignalVietnam ranks 39th overall on the strength of Economic Fundamentals
- SignalVietnam's FDI held at or above 53.0% of inflows while other components swung
- SignalWEF Global Value Chains Outlook 2026 — Resilience Over Efficiency
- IssueWatch point: infrastructure owners withhold essential services as bargaining leverage1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: small and middle powers with room to manoeuvre form more flexible alignments1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: technology improves chains enough that dramatic reorganization becomes unnecessary1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalXinhua: APEC Meetings in Chengdu Promoted AI Development and Cooperation
- Signaltonies opened a Vietnam plant one day before US tariffs on Chinese goods