Signal KEEI projects Korea's total energy demand to stagnate at 0.1 percent annual growth, reaching 308.2 Mtoe in 2030

Summary

The Korea Energy Economics Institute projects total primary energy demand to grow only 0.1 percent a year from 2025 to 2030, reaching about 308.2 million tonnes of oil equivalent. Demand is estimated to have fallen 1.5 percent in 2025 as steel and petrochemicals stayed weak, and it is expected to decline further in 2026 and 2027 before rising gently. Although the economy is assumed to recover from its 2025 trough and grow in the high 1 percent range from 2026 to 2029, weak energy use in steel and petrochemicals keeps energy growth below economic growth. Base effects and a gradual global recovery bring a rebound after 2026, but the institute expects it to be small. Per capita energy use nonetheless edges up 0.3 percent a year, from 5.9 toe in 2025 to 6.0 toe in 2030, despite the shrinking population.