E1 Macroeconomy & Finance
by main topic: 408
Issues 93
Industry & Supply Chains 27
0-3 years 11
- IssueAdaptability depends on being able to shift the investment balance quickly2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueConsumer AI is adopted widely and paid for narrowly1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueCorporate adoption is justified by payment cost, not by the technology1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueNo consensus on priorities: everything, everywhere, all at once1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueOrganizations lose clarity about what their core actually is as they grow1 trends · 1 signals
- IssuePeanut buttering: spreading capital and talent evenly dilutes impact1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSwing factors, not daily indicators, mark the shift between pathways1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe 2026 strategy organises policy into four areas and fifteen tasks from AI transition to a sovereign wealth fund2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe CFO's remit widens while the growth environment stays complex1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueThe experience economy splits between premium spenders and low-cost emotional substitutes1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueWindows of opportunity open and close faster than finance's planning cycle1 trends · 0 signals
4-10 years 10
- IssueAgenda 5: A full-cycle finance system for deep-tech innovation and growth1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueDraghi's warning of an existential competitiveness challenge and three priority tasks3 trends · 3 signals
- IssueFinancing an additional 750 to 800 billion euros of investment a year1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueLimited common EU funding and uneven national fiscal capacity constrain industrial policy1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRising asset values pull capital toward repurchases rather than productive investment1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueShifting to productive finance and an industrial finance coordination system1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe plan attributes Korea's weakening economic vitality to lagging innovation, demographic crisis, unfair markets and misallocated capital0 trends · 4 signals
- IssueThe plan targets a rebound to 3 percent potential growth through a '3+1' strategy of technology-led, shared and fair growth0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueTransition finance for low-carbon conversion of hard-to-abate industries1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueWealth and asset management: concentration rises as margins thin1 trends · 0 signals
Other 6
- IssueAccounting for Innovation1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueAn elevated balance sheet unwinds through productivity, inflation, a reset, or not at all3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueHousehold deleveraging does not remove the risk if debt moves to other sectors1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueProlonged valuation gaps distort capital allocation and feed inequality before correcting1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueTobin's Q should converge to one, which the US ratio contradicts1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueTwo of the four scenarios imply structurally higher interest rates1 trends · 0 signals
Labor & Future of Work 9
- IssueFinancial health remains a peripheral benefits task despite documented performance costs1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueInsurance: judgment survives where risk is complex1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueLow growth and reliance on productivity to sustain the welfare state2 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePrivate equity: patient governance suits a rebalanced system1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueProductivity restated as accuracy times relevance times impact over cognitive input1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueStructural reform to lift total factor productivity2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueSustaining growth under labour supply constraints in Korea1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueThe Ideas Economy1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueUneven pathways to prosperity1 trends · 5 signals
Trade & Economic Security 14
- IssueA cross-sectional correlation is turned into a policy lever1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueChina may use yuan depreciation and inducements to split the US alliance network2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueChina's debt-financed growth model runs into limits that only consumption can relieve1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueEntrenchment of structurally low global growth0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueExtending the Korea-Japan currency swap and deepening regional financial cooperation0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueFDI dominance coexists with sharply volatile portfolio and bank-related flows2 trends · 5 signals
- IssueFinancial security strategy against the renminbi balloon effect2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueProductivity scenarios decide whether Korea avoids outright contraction2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRegional finance runs through Singapore, which blurs where capital originates1 trends · 3 signals
- IssueRisks to Korea's growth path from swings in AI investment, Middle East tensions and US trade pressure1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueSustaining a fragile 2025 recovery amid tariffs, household debt and regional housing risks0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSwing factors for Korea's 2026 outlook: war, energy inflation, the AI cycle and trade uncertainty1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueUpside scenario: trade de-escalation, faster AI productivity gains and structural reform0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueUpside scenarios: early Middle East calm, AI productivity gains and faster trade de-escalation0 trends · 0 signals
Climate Change & Adaptation 1
- IssueA Catalyst for Common Good1 trends · 0 signals
Resources, Food & Water 2
- IssueRisk: a prolonged Middle East conflict locks in high energy prices and inflation0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueToward a 'scarcity economy' by 20504 trends · 0 signals
Ecosystems & Biodiversity 1
- IssueUnderinvestment where value is long-term, diffuse or hard to monetise1 trends · 0 signals
Geopolitics & Security 3
- IssueA US equity reset could be triggered by AI disappointment or geopolitical disruption1 trends · 4 signals
- IssueRisks to Korea's inflation path from oil prices, exchange rates and demand-side pressure1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRisks to world growth from Middle East talks, AI profitability concerns and rising bond yields1 trends · 0 signals
Democracy & Governance 20
0-3 years 6
- IssueA fixed frame with a shifting indicator base does not make editions comparable1 trends · 5 signals
- IssueAI is where measuring and predicting technology returns breaks down2 trends · 5 signals
- IssueEconomic vulnerability centred on a global financial crisis1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueOrganizations hesitate to divest even when they are no longer the best owner1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePreventing demand-driven core inflation from becoming broad-based and entrenched in Korea2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRisk: eroding fiscal space and government bond market instability1 trends · 0 signals
4-10 years 8
- IssueAs value creation moves before the IPO, evaluation shifts to proprietary predictive scores1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueOverhauling economies to fit within planetary boundaries1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSafeguarding fiscal sustainability as potential growth declines2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueTax cuts and inflexible spending are said to threaten fiscal sustainability2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueThe 2026 strategy seeks a simultaneous rebound in potential growth and an end to polarisation2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueThe government calls for rebuilding the national system for a frontier-led economy in the AI era3 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe plan aims to turn the 'Korea discount' into a 'Korea premium' and reach a KOSPI 5,000 era0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueThe plan judges past policy discourses inadequate and sets growth plus reduced inequality as Korea's twin tasks1 trends · 0 signals
11-30 years 1
- IssueShrinking tax base and the restructuring of public finances0 trends · 1 signals
Other 5
- IssueBalanced Books1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueHousehold wealth is partly a claim of citizens on themselves as taxpayers and customers1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueNo agreed threshold marks the point where government debt becomes unsustainable1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueRising cross-border online fraud with fewer convictions eroding trust1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueUniversal cryptocurrencies limiting monetary policy1 trends · 0 signals
Tech·Digital Policy 3
- IssueA cashless UK: harder concealment versus new untraceable channels1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueFairness becomes a design constraint on pricing algorithms, not an afterthought1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueShrinkflation trades short-term margin for credibility and regulatory exposure1 trends · 3 signals
Demographics & Migration 1
- IssueRestructuring and rising volatility of capital and financial markets0 trends · 1 signals
Cities & Housing 1
- IssueManaging currency, housing, household debt and credit union risks during the 2026 upturn0 trends · 0 signals
Education & Generations 1
- IssueThe Good Economy1 trends · 0 signals
AI & Computing 6
- IssueContinuously running agents make cost control a design requirement, not an afterthought1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueInsurance: personalisation raises the trust threshold1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueMigrating banks off AI-incompatible legacy systems1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRisk of an AI investment bubble bursting1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueRisk: an AI investment correction could combine with bond market stress1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSticky inflation, stretched AI equity valuations and public debt as macro-financial downside risks0 trends · 0 signals
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 1
- IssueBanking: settlement compresses from days to minutes, but data fragments1 trends · 0 signals
Media & Information Ecosystem 1
- IssueA measurement problem inherited from the industrial era1 trends · 0 signals
Other 2
- IssueFalling neutral rates raise the risk of hitting the zero lower bound1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKorea: fiscal strain and bond market turmoil abroad may transmit through rates, the won and capital flows1 trends · 0 signals
Trends 58
Industry & Supply Chains 22
0-3 years 15
- TrendChina's deflation trap4 signals
- TrendDemand-side inflation pressure building in Korea as the chip export boom spreads to domestic demand1 signals
- TrendDeveloping regions diverge in capital mix while Southeast Asia's six concentrate on FDI4 signals
- TrendEconomic risks expected to materialize sooner1 signals
- TrendFinance-led cost management becomes a continuous discipline built on ownership and tooling8 signals
- TrendForce 2: value priority spreads across income segments and categories0 signals
- TrendKorea combines solid macro aggregates with widening sectoral asymmetry0 signals
- TrendKorea's IT-led expansion broadening into other sectors of the economy0 signals
- TrendReal estate and private debt recalibrate toward 25-year GDP ratios, helped by inflation5 signals
- TrendReturns on technology investment follow zones rather than a single optimum4 signals
- TrendShift 6: concentration on the core displaces breadth as the growth strategy9 signals
- TrendSpeed becomes the priority: finance strengthens scenario planning and agile governance6 signals
- TrendState capitalism with American characteristics5 signals
- TrendTrend 4: stablecoins move from crypto trading rails to corporate finance7 signals
- TrendWealth growth shifts from real investment to paper gains6 signals
4-10 years 5
- TrendFinancial size and depth expand across the six growth markets3 signals
- TrendK-shaped growth: output and income increasingly polarise between large IT firms and the rest4 signals
- TrendRelative decline of the EU economy and a widening productivity gap with the United States3 signals
- TrendThe balance sheet detaches further from the real economy, driven by the US and China4 signals
- TrendTrend 3: the next generation of large companies grows up outside public markets6 signals
11-30 years 2
Labor & Future of Work 4
- TrendFinancial health is proposed as strategic infrastructure, not a peripheral benefit2 signals
- TrendKorea's potential growth is sliding on a shrinking workforce, weak investment and stalled productivity2 signals
- TrendThe productivity reset5 signals
- TrendTrend G: Post-population-growth economy1 signals
Trade & Economic Security 9
- TrendCapital leaving China is redistributed among developing regions without being replaced3 signals
- TrendDoubts over dollar hegemony and a gradually rising global role for the renminbi3 signals
- TrendGlobal growth diverging according to countries' participation in AI supply chains0 signals
- TrendKorea risks sliding back to middle-income status as low growth meets demographic and trade headwinds1 signals
- TrendKorea's income catch-up with the United States stalls0 signals
- TrendMajor economies enter 2026 on divergent balance sheet pathways5 signals
- TrendRenminbi and Chinese capital gain weight in Korea through a balloon effect1 signals
- TrendUS equity grows into nearly half of the sampled world's corporate equity4 signals
- TrendWorld economy stays on a sub-par growth path under overlapping shocks0 signals
Climate Change & Adaptation 1
- TrendCapitalism rebalanced9 signals
Ecosystems & Biodiversity 1
Geopolitics & Security 4
- TrendFraud and illicit finance threat growing with AI-enabled scams5 signals
- TrendGovernment debt keeps expanding as interest rates approach or exceed growth rates4 signals
- TrendGrowth paths split among advanced and emerging economies0 signals
- TrendTen global shifts since the 2008 financial crisis reshaping economy, technology, geopolitics and society0 signals
Democracy & Governance 2
- TrendFinance leaders move from stewardship to leading enterprise strategy5 signals
- TrendGrowing inequalities fueling discontent0 signals
Tech·Digital Policy 4
- TrendCryptoassets and DeFi threatening financial stability without regulation0 signals
- TrendDLT and smart contracts improving financial efficiency under governance1 signals
- TrendEmerging financial systems harder to track, regulate and secure9 signals
- TrendRedefining Finance and Monetary Systems10 signals
Demographics & Migration 3
Cities & Housing 1
Welfare & Health 3
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 1
Values & Lifestyles 2
Other 1
Signals 257
Industry & Supply Chains 69
0-3 years 63
- Signal$7 trillion of investment pledges face their first real test
- Signal43% of executives say they divested too late or failed to divest
- Signal74% would switch for a lower regular price and 71% for an unannounced downsizing
- SignalA billion-dollar acquisition is framed as access to a 120 trillion dollar treasury market
- SignalABB's FP&A-embedded team built a gross-profit-per-headcount metric to steer cost behavior
- SignalAll six beat peers on Financial Size and Condition but three fall below on Financial Access
- SignalCapital availability is the least-cited barrier to fixing productivity stagnation
- SignalChina Development Bank disburses first tranche of 2026 policy-based financing tool
- SignalChina recorded the largest fall in wealth growth as investment, inflation, and property all slowed
- SignalChina works through a partial balance sheet reset with debt at all-time highs
- SignalChina would need domestic demand to rise more than six points of GDP
- SignalChinese corporate debt is double the global average and 80% of corporate real assets
- SignalCorporate debt sits at or below 25-year averages in much of the world; Ireland cut 21 points
- SignalDemand-side weakness: falling consumption propensity, export dependence on chips and record-low spending growth
- SignalEarly adopters report 2.2x ROI against 1.4x for late adopters
- SignalEquity deals to robot foundation model developers rose through 2025
- SignalEquity to GDP climbed most in South Korea, the US, Canada, and Japan
- SignalExperiences grew 2.6% from 2023 to 2025 against 0.8% for nonessential goods
- SignalFigure 3 gives each of the six a global rank in all five GOI categories
- SignalFigure 6 gives standardized peer-comparison scores for the six across all fourteen subcategories
- SignalHigh performers report 4.5x ROI at lower relative investment
- SignalHouseholds hold 95% of all wealth, split about evenly between real and financial assets
- SignalIKEA visitor rates rose 4.5% in store and 21% online after publicized price cuts
- SignalIndonesia ranks 46th overall and 38th in Financial Services, compared with 78th in 2022
- SignalInstacart says price-parity retailers grew over 10 points faster on its platform
- SignalIntangibles outgrow physical investment while going uncommercialised
- SignalIntel Announces Upsize and Pricing of $20 Billion Common Stock Offering
- SignalJapan, the UK, China, and France hold currency and deposits above twice GDP
- SignalKorea climbs to 14th in GDP and 6th in exports while growth outlooks improve
- SignalKorea plans 20-trillion-won sovereign wealth fund to invest directly in AI and semiconductors
- SignalKorean chip stocks plunge amid global AI investment doubts
- SignalKroger reports low- and middle-income households cutting trip size and dining out
- SignalLao PDR is last of the six with 75th in Economic Fundamentals and 79th in Institutional Framework
- SignalLarge banks and brokerages acquire pre-IPO trading and cap table infrastructure
- SignalLithium has lost over 80% of its value since 2022, making integrated hubs a necessity
- SignalLuxury hotels grew nearly 6% from 2023 to 2025 against about 3.5% for hotels overall
- SignalMalaysia leads the six at 23rd overall, 17th in Financial Services and 18th in Business Perception
- SignalMore than 1,300 unicorns exist worldwide and twelve exceed the median S&P 500 company
- SignalMore than a quarter of listed Chinese firms unprofitable, a 25-year high
- SignalMore than three-quarters of consumers still trade down, differently by category
- SignalNickel price jump of 270% led the LME to suspend trading
- SignalOne in three leaders name short-termism as a barrier to fixing productivity stagnation
- SignalOnly 20% of 2025 wealth growth was real capital formation; drivers split by country
- SignalPFAS waste incineration costs $1,000-5,000 per tonne against about $50 for ordinary waste
- SignalPrivate companies now buy at public-company scale while staying private longer
- SignalScale-up and venture capital gaps push European start-ups abroad
- SignalSeven stated priorities cluster within 18 points, with the top five separated by 4
- SignalSmaller organizations report 3.6x ROI, those with fewer cost pressures 2.6x
- SignalStablecoin infrastructure M&A rose roughly fourfold year over year in 2025
- SignalSupply-side erosion: a shrinking workforce, net capital outflow and falling world market shares
- SignalTech budgets split 35 percent maintenance, 36 percent growth, 29 percent transformation
- SignalThe 2025 global picture was driven by the United States and China
- SignalThe US corporate profit share of GDP doubled against its pre-2000 average
- SignalThe eurozone returns to secular stagnation with flat productivity and high saving
- SignalThe six span GDP ranks 17th to 137th while Thailand, Myanmar, Brunei, and Timor-Leste are excluded
- SignalThree-quarters say their organization needs more resources to capture investment opportunities
- SignalTop 20 asset managers reach 47% of global assets under management
- SignalTravel experiences grew 4.4% from 2023 to 2025 while restaurants slowed to 1.2%
- SignalUOB's 2022-2023 acquisitions are said to have doubled its retail base in four markets
- SignalUS Eases Funding Rules for Data Centers, Exempts AI-Backed Securities
- SignalUS equity, government debt, and deposits push wealth on paper to a multi-decade high
- SignalUS government takes equity in Intel and MP Materials with guaranteed prices
- SignalWalmart moved from monthly scenario runs to near-daily modeling
4-10 years 5
- SignalAbout 80% of a typical company's growth comes from its core industry
- SignalCertain strategic moves raise the odds of reaching the top performance quintile sixfold
- SignalOnly one in six companies with a lagging core outgrew peers overall
- SignalOnly one in ten large businesses grew revenue in seven of the past ten years
- SignalWorld Bank forecasts cited as offsetting the slowdown in developed markets
11-30 years 1
Labor & Future of Work 12
- Signal45% of cost owners run a dedicated expense management team
- Signal64% plan to raise AI investment and AI's share of tech budgets should move from 8% to 13%
- Signal74% would not move more than a tenth of their workforce; only 30% reallocate enterprise-wide
- SignalEU labour productivity has slipped from about 90 to about 75 percent of the US level
- SignalFast reallocators were 2.2 times more likely to outperform on shareholder returns
- SignalGrowth Without Us: Machine Consumers, Corporate Circularity, and the Decoupling of GDP from Humanity after AGI
- SignalMore confident organizations reallocate budget and talent enterprise-wide more often
- SignalPwC 2023 finds 60% of employees financially stressed, including 47% of high earners
- SignalSelf-employed closures topped one million in 2024 as small businesses struggle
- SignalSlower total factor productivity explains two-thirds of Korea's post-2010 growth decline
- SignalStrategy-influencing leaders carry about 20% more responsibilities across nine categories
- SignalSurvey: public points to demographic change, experts to new growth engines as Korea's main 2026 challenge
Trade & Economic Security 29
0-3 years 27
- SignalAbout half of Singapore's FDI inflows come from the US and Europe while its outflows go to Asia
- SignalBRICS payment initiatives, the mBridge CBDC project and the US GENIUS Act reshape cross-border money
- SignalCambodia's bank-related inflows turned negative in 2024 after driving growth to 2021
- SignalChina sharply cut its US Treasury holdings while diversifying reserves
- SignalChina's total-economy wealth nearly equals that of the US once all sectors are counted
- SignalExport licences and tariff relief converted into revenue and price concessions
- SignalFDI rose to 72.5% of inflows to the six as portfolio share fell from 21.5% to 8.5%
- SignalFDI to the six rose from $50.0bn in 2015 to $74.7bn in 2024, averaging 67.6% of inflows
- SignalFrance and Germany lost wealth in 2025 once exchange rate effects are removed
- SignalGOI 2026 coverage excludes China, Germany, Japan, and India for want of Business Ready data
- SignalInflows to China fell $295.2 billion, a 64.1% decline between the two four-year periods
- SignalKazakhstan and Uzbekistan multiplied their output between 1991 and 2023
- SignalLao PDR's FDI share rose as its absolute value slipped and bank flows went negative for three years
- SignalLatin America takes 22.5% of developing-economy inflows while the six take 8.8%
- SignalMalaysia and the Philippines saw FDI shares fall while their absolute FDI rose
- SignalMalaysia had the decade's most frequent reversals in capital inflows
- SignalMore than a third of US equity liabilities are owed abroad
- SignalPortfolio and bank-related flows, not FDI, drove the decade's variation in inflows
- SignalPortfolio flows were 36.9% of China's inflows before the contraction
- SignalRenminbi payment network and trade-finance share expand
- SignalThe EU remains the world's second-largest economy and its largest trader in goods and services
- SignalThe GOI is said to explain 66.2% of cross-country variation in FDI per capita
- SignalThe Philippines pairs 6th in Economic Performance with 56th in Business Perception
- SignalUK and Canadian wealth growth slipped in local currency while Canadian equity lifted paper wealth
- SignalVietnam ranks 39th overall on the strength of Economic Fundamentals
- SignalVietnam's FDI held at or above 53.0% of inflows while other components swung
- SignalYuan settlement and Chinese capital rise in Korea's trade and capital markets
Climate Change & Adaptation 2
Resources, Food & Water 2
Ecosystems & Biodiversity 2
Geopolitics & Security 12
- SignalDraghi frames European productivity as a forced choice between three goals
- SignalFraud is the most common UK crime at 3.9 million offences
- SignalGulf sovereign wealth funds are cited with Abu Dhabi's Falcon 40B as the named case
- SignalHundreds of billions of pounds likely laundered through the UK yearly
- SignalKEEI outlook assumes Korean GDP growth of 2.1 percent a year and oil near 80 dollars in 2026 falling to the low 60s
- SignalMGI argues rates are structurally higher, pushing debt ratios up absent policy change
- SignalPerceived risks spread from economic uncertainty at 26% to geopolitics and supply chains at 21%
- SignalSerious and organised crime estimated to cost the UK 47 billion pounds a year
- SignalThe gap between growth and interest rates approached zero and may have flipped in the US in 2025
- SignalUS national debt reaches about 122 percent of GDP with steeper projections ahead
- SignalUS officials question the dollar's reserve role and float a Mar-a-Lago accord
- SignalViolence costs $20 trillion a year with high claimed returns to prevention
Democracy & Governance 29
0-3 years 29
- Signal13 percent of high performers lack business sponsorship against 60 percent of the rest
- Signal36% of finance leaders own cost management and hit savings goals more often (47% versus 39%)
- Signal57% say they play a leading role in shaping enterprise strategy
- Signal58 percent acknowledge that traditional ROI measures do not fit AI projects
- SignalAustralia Unveils Ban on Unlicensed Superannuation Telemarketing After Fund Collapses
- SignalAverage reported tech ROI is 200 percent, with returns shaped by execution rather than spend
- SignalBRICS and SCO build alternative payment and development-finance channels
- SignalCurrency and deposits fell from pandemic peaks but remain above pre-crisis levels
- SignalDomestic resource mobilisation and tax reform prioritised at Sevilla
- SignalEU disburses €1.5 billion to Egypt under Macro-Financial Assistance programme
- SignalFive of six beat peers on Business Constraints while the same five lag on Recovery and Resolution
- SignalGOI 2026 organizes its indicators into five categories and fourteen subcategories
- SignalGOI indicators are drawn from the World Bank, the IMF, and Transparency International
- SignalGovernment debt exceeded 100% of GDP in eight advanced economies in 2025
- SignalIMF put Chinese public debt at 124% of GDP in 2024 once off-book items are added
- SignalInequality ranked the most interconnected global risk of the decade
- SignalKorea's 2025 Commercial Act amendment extends directors' duty of loyalty to all shareholders
- SignalKorea's managed fiscal deficit stays near 4 percent of GDP after the pandemic
- SignalKorean court dismisses activist fund's $49 million suit against former KT&G directors
- SignalKorean equities remain undervalued despite successive capital market reforms
- SignalMandatory spending absorbs most budget growth while the tax burden ratio has fallen
- SignalPeer comparison uses a z-score with 1.96 treated as a significance threshold
- SignalPublic sector fraud and error cost at least 33 billion pounds a year
- SignalScenario planning (30%) and agile governance (28%) lead the actions for managing uncertainty
- SignalThe US shows a structural uptick in productivity and rates alongside inflation above target
- SignalUS government debt near 120% of GDP would need three points of GDP in extra fiscal saving
- SignalUS philanthropy and the AMA move capital and professional backing behind men's health
- SignalUS regulators move to let private assets into retirement plans
- SignalWeak shareholder protection and a real-estate-heavy household balance sheet underpin the Korea discount
Tech·Digital Policy 13
- Signal100 jurisdictions exploring central bank digital currencies
- Signal80% call volume discounts fair while shrinkflation is rated unfair by 64%
- SignalCBDC Banned in United States Through 2030
- SignalCBDC Expansion — 146 Countries Exploring, China's e-CNY Reclassified as Deposit Liability
- SignalCertified B Corporations up 131% since 2007
- SignalJackson Hole 2026: New Fed Chair Warsh delivers first keynote under 'Financial Innovation' theme
- SignalLeading technology firms worth almost seven trillion dollars
- SignalNew US Housing Law Bars Fed CBDC Through 2030 as Regulators Draft Stablecoin Rules
- SignalPlastic-linked health costs projected above $250 billion a year by 2030
- SignalSouth Korea to test tokenized government bonds with CBDC in 2027
- SignalStablecoin capitalisation doubles under two-issuer concentration
- SignalThe digital euro gets ready for beta testing
- SignalU.S.–UK Transatlantic Taskforce for the Markets of the Future — joint stablecoin recommendations
Demographics & Migration 7
- SignalAgeing alone will cut per-capita GDP growth, most sharply in Korea
- SignalIf current trends persist Korea's potential growth falls to around one percent in the 2030s
- SignalKDI projections cited in the plan show Korea's potential growth rate sliding toward zero within a decade
- SignalKDI projects Korea's potential growth falling from about three percent to the zero percent range by the 2040s
- SignalKorea's working-age population projected to fall from 37.5 million in 2020 to about 25 million by 2040 as national debt climbs
- SignalOECD estimates Korea's potential growth falling from 3.08 percent in 2015 to 1.52 percent in 2027
- SignalProspective ageing measure halves the OECD growth drag from a shrinking working-age population
Cities & Housing 9
- SignalChinese home prices falling for four and a half years and still accelerating
- SignalEquity produced 57% of new household wealth in 2025 against 15% from real estate
- SignalEquity was the largest source of wealth creation in nearly every major economy in 2025
- SignalHousehold debt is back to early-2000s levels in the US and Europe
- SignalHousehold wealth growth accelerated to 7.3% in 2025 from a 5.9% long-run average
- SignalJapan posted the largest wealth upswing, driven mostly by valuation gains after decades of near-zero inflation
- SignalPer capita household wealth grew in most countries but lagged GDP
- SignalRedirecting 1% of GDP to infrastructure or education raises output 1.5-6%
- SignalRichest 10% hold the bulk of Dutch wealth
Welfare & Health 18
0-3 years 15
- Signal83% of countries have high income inequality
- SignalEnergy price cap rose from 1,216 to 4,059 pounds; EPG limited bills to 2,500
- SignalFoodborne disease costs UK society 9.1 billion pounds a year
- SignalFoodborne illness cost businesses 157.5 million and the NHS 60.5 million pounds
- SignalGlobal wellness economy at US$6.8 trillion in 2024, projected at $9.8 trillion by 2029
- SignalGrowth below 3% in 2026-27 makes the 2020s the slowest decade since the 1960s
- SignalNorovirus the costliest foodborne pathogen at 1.7 billion pounds
- SignalOfficial development assistance falls to $212.1bn with a further drop projected
- SignalPakistan launches nationwide fuel relief subsidy scheme
- SignalThe lowest income quintile spends 123 percent of disposable income while the top spends 55 percent
- SignalTop 10% of British households held 43% of wealth, bottom half 9%
- SignalUK income inequality 7th highest in the OECD in 2021
- SignalUS equities at 3.7 times GDP make up nearly 40% of household wealth
- SignalUnchecked AMR could cost 100 trillion dollars by 2050
- SignalUnwanted loneliness estimated to cost Spain about 4 percent of GDP
4-10 years 1
Education & Generations 1
AI & Computing 23
0-3 years 21
- Signal17 percent of high performers struggle to communicate AI value against 57 percent of the rest
- Signal30% of early-stage adopters struggle to justify AI ROI against 21% of AI leaders
- Signal55 percent struggle to demonstrate the value of AI to stakeholders and shareholders
- Signal87 percent of high performers say they should take more technology risk, against 78 percent
- SignalA 60% to 70% cloud-to-hardware cost ratio is named as the repatriation tipping point
- SignalAI sector capital expenditure nearly doubled since early 2025
- SignalAnthropic Files Confidential IPO Paperwork, Valuation Reaches $965 Billion
- SignalCumulative AI investment projected above $3 trillion by 2030
- SignalInference cost fell 280-fold in two years while total AI spending rose faster still
- SignalJust over half of S&P 500 market-cap growth from 2021 to 2025 came from seven firms
- SignalKorea lifts government R&D to a record 35.3 trillion won in 2026 while national debt climbs
- SignalLeading AI startups reach 100 million dollars of recurring revenue faster than predecessors
- SignalMGI rebuts the argument that the high US Tobin's Q reflects mismeasured intellectual property
- SignalOnly 19% will pay for shopping automation outright, 22% only if bundled
- SignalThe quantum drug discovery market is said to have roughly doubled in five years
- SignalTop 0.001% hold triple the wealth of the bottom half; seven firms are a third of the S&P 500
- SignalTraining GPT-4 and Gemini Ultra cost a reported $78 million and $191 million
- SignalUS equity stands at 2.4 times corporate net assets against about 1.0 elsewhere
- SignalUS potential growth rebounded during past technology transitions, the strategy observes
- SignalUS, Canada, Japan, and South Korea hit all-time equity highs, the US at double its average
- SignalWhy Better Models Can Create Riskier Systems: Evidence from LLM Agents in Financial Markets
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 5
- SignalAfrica Tokenization for SME Finance; Brookings Foresight Africa 2026
- SignalNational Payments Vision published in November 2024
- SignalNearly half of stablecoin companies funded in 2025 were already deploying or scaling
- SignalTokenised real-world assets projected at $30 trillion by 2034
- SignalUK internet banking fraud cases fell from 43,000 to 8,800
Values & Lifestyles 8
- Signal49% buy smaller quantities and 48% substitute cheaper alternatives
- Signal62% still hunt online for deals and 62% cut non-essentials as inflation eases
- SignalA stronger loyalty programme (65%) and a better promotion (62%) rank next as switching triggers
- SignalBrookings tipping point: half the world middle class in 2018, 5.3 billion projected for 2030
- SignalChina and India projected at 66% of the world middle class by 2030
- SignalHigh-income consumers adopt make-do habits by choice, and luxury resale goes mainstream
- SignalMiddle class put at about 5 billion by 2030 with two thirds in Asia Pacific
- SignalMoney-off (75%) leads a promotion hierarchy that rewards immediacy
Media & Information Ecosystem 1
Other 15
- SignalA one-point wider output gap raises Korean core inflation by about 0.1 to 0.4 points, Bank of Korea estimates
- SignalAt least 500 million crypto asset users worldwide
- SignalCentral Bank of Egypt Launches Pan-African Financial Stability Committee Portal
- SignalCryptoasset market capitalisation about 3.1 trillion dollars in May 2025
- SignalDeFi dated by the report to July 2020
- SignalDeFi market capitalisation said to peak at 170 million dollars in 2021
- SignalIMF reaches staff-level agreement with Bolivia on $1.9 billion economic reform package
- SignalKorea recorded four straight quarters of near-zero growth before a mid-2025 rebound
- SignalKorean growth averaged 1.7 percent in 2023-24 amid fears of entrenched low growth
- SignalMonetary policy assessment of 24 September 2026
- SignalOECD estimates show Korea's potential growth falling from 5.4 percent in 1998 to 2002 to 2.3 percent in 2022 to 2025
- SignalPrice co-movement across Korean core items strengthens once core inflation exceeds about 2.5 percent
- SignalSilvana Tenreyro Assumes Role as IMF Chief Economist
- SignalUS Senate passes Common Cents Act for cash-rounding framework
- SignalUS Treasury Doubles Bond Buyback Size as 30-Year Yields Hit Post-2007 Highs
Objects with this as a secondary topic 404
Industry & Supply Chains 60
0-3 years 44
- Signal43% rank productivity their top priority and two-thirds call their organization overly complex
- SignalA generative AI copilot cut FP&A transactional activity 30% and opex 15% in one company
- IssueA handful of outsized deals dominate value in a market that is 1.2% of global transactions1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalAldi and Lidl force UK incumbents to rework pricing, quality, assortment, and cost base
- SignalAmazon Grocery consolidates private label with 1,000+ items under $5
- SignalB2B leads cross-border deal count while B2C leads value on the strength of one transaction
- SignalBilling infrastructure for AI agents emerges while pricing models remain unsettled
- SignalConsumers tell McKinsey private label is equal or better quality, undercutting the trade-down label
- SignalCross-border deals are 49.2% of value but 40.3% of transactions in the six
- SignalEU industrial output and investment weakened during the energy price shock
- SignalEarly warning 6: Deep-tech ecosystem vitality
- SignalEfficiency metrics dominate AI agent measurement while revenue impact stays unquantified
- SignalEurope's corporate investment gap with the US is $700 billion, about three points of GDP
- SignalExecutives split evenly on whether opportunity windows are shortening
- SignalFinancial services leads all industries in AI agent partnerships in 2025
- SignalFriction costed at $8.8 trillion in disengagement and 20-30% of revenue in silos
- SignalGWI values wellness real estate at $548 billion and projects over $1 trillion by 2029
- SignalIntegrating end-to-end processes raised speed to market 1.5-fold at one CPG company
- IssueKorea: the energy shock as sectoral asymmetry rather than an aggregate terms-of-trade loss1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalKorean industries split between a technology-led boom and a deep slump in heavy sectors
- SignalLeaders at the largest organizations feel very high productivity pressure at twice the rate
- SignalMalaysia has 49.2% of deals and Indonesia 47.3% of deal value among the six
- SignalNorth America became tonies' largest market at about half of revenue in 2025
- SignalOne $10.6bn Thai acquisition of Tesco Malaysia makes Thailand the top origin by value
- SignalOnly one of Korea's ten largest listed companies was founded after 1990
- SignalOver half of global business services scopes cover finance, HR, IT, and procurement; savings exceed 20%
- SignalPrivate-label preference fell 21 points from 65% to 44% in one year
- SignalSK Square set to turn SK Hynix windfall into firepower for AI, chip deals
- SignalSector composition of cross-border deals is broadly similar across the four larger markets
- IssueSemiconductor scenarios: faster or slower chip export growth and their effects on Korean growth and inflation1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalSemiconductors moved from laggard to leader by combining portfolio and performance moves
- SignalSephora paid for rides to stores after a Q1 2025 US sales dip
- SignalState of Tech in Africa H1 2026 recap: Is consolidation the new growth story?
- TrendStructural expansion of the global semiconductor cycle driven by AI infrastructure investment2 signals
- SignalTSMC, Rapidus and Airbus as models of state-led or public-private strategic firms
- SignalTarget froze 2024 prices on 1,000+ school items after a 4.8% traffic decline
- SignalTechCabal — ForgeTech Summit 2026 and Tier 2 African markets (Ghana, Rwanda, Tunisia) gaining investor interest
- IssueThe adoption curve splits between overbuilding on hype and waiting for perfect technology1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalUnilever expanded its CFO's remit to supply chain, procurement, digital, and business services
- IssueValue-first management moves procurement, product development, and supply chain to the centre1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalVenture investment and new unicorns have shrunk since the 2021 peak
- SignalWalmart is said to have gained 15% in repeat purchases from voice ordering
- TrendWar-driven costs and AI demand push product prices up, tempered by Chinese oversupply0 signals
- SignalZara runs continuous competitor-tracking dynamic pricing
4-10 years 11
- IssueAI embedding strengthens marketplaces and deepens the brands' scale-versus-data tension1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueBalancing domestic and overseas investment to prevent hollowing out of strategic industries1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueBrand equity, scale, and distribution no longer guarantee competitive advantage1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendChina prepares for a protracted contest through self-reliance and domestic strength5 signals
- IssueDelivering value becomes a recurring obligation rather than a one-time repositioning1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalHumanoid material costs are projected to fall from US$35,000 to US$13,000-17,000 within a decade
- TrendKorea's catch-up growth model has reached its limits3 signals
- IssueMining: prices mask declining labour and capital productivity1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe eurozone's swing factor is an uptick in productive investment1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueThe government's 'real growth' paradigm targets world-leading products through concentrated national support4 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWhere advantage sits when information and AI are universally accessible1 trends · 0 signals
11-30 years 3
Labor & Future of Work 26
0-3 years 16
- Signal63% of Schneider Electric employees hold shares in the company
- Signal66% now treat the technology organization as a revenue generator rather than a service centre
- Signal67% expect advantage from speed and nimbleness against 28% from scale
- SignalA 136-study review ties financial stress to lower performance and lost work hours
- SignalCFO job postings asked for 19% more skills over five years and doubled the risk-management ask
- SignalFirms with comprehensive training report 218% higher income per employee
- SignalHPE built a four-agent system for internal operational performance reviews
- SignalIMF Staff Discussion Note: New Jobs Creation in the AI Age (SDN/2026/001)
- SignalLeaders in interaction design report better financial results at about 2.5 times the rate
- SignalOf the third who cut workers because of AI, 57% now question that decision
- SignalOnly 30% of leaders see freed-up time going to higher-value work
- SignalRelocated agencies raised local hiring and contributed to regional growth
- TrendShift 7: the focus moves from retention to performance as the Great Attrition ends13 signals
- SignalUS public companies cut white-collar workforces by 3.5% over three years
- SignalUS workers shift from job hopping to job hugging as quits and hiring both fall
- TrendWorkplace wellbeing moves from standalone programs to enterprise architecture3 signals
4-10 years 9
- SignalAgents are being named individually and floated as future taxable workers
- SignalAnalysts forecast up to 200,000 Wall Street job losses by 2028 to 2030
- IssueCapability managed as a portfolio with depreciation curves1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalKorea's employment rate falls to 61.7 percent and unemployment to 2.5 percent by 2033
- SignalPeople-and-performance organizations show 5% lower attrition and higher earnings mobility
- SignalPeople-and-performance organizations sustain top-tier financial performance at 4.3 times the rate
- IssueTalent Debt compounds like financial debt1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe recommendations assume AI will not create jobs fast enough to offset the ones it removes1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTipping point 2: from cost efficiency to value creation2 trends · 1 signals
Other 1
- IssueAI automation eroding employment and the income tax base1 trends · 0 signals
Trade & Economic Security 21
0-3 years 13
- SignalA $550 billion Japanese fund directed by the White House outside appropriations
- SignalAFTP report finds China missed Phase One commitments as the bilateral deficit widened
- SignalAround seven in ten expect tariff effects on shelf prices to be disclosed
- SignalChina's surplus exceeds Japan's 1987 peak relative to world GDP
- SignalExports equal about 40 percent of Korean GDP
- SignalJapan and Germany reached net lending near 90% of GDP, the US net borrowing near 90%
- IssueKorean vulnerability: External economic dependence0 trends · 1 signals
- SignalMcKinsey Global Institute: US-China Decoupling Cut 2025 Global Trade Growth by 10%
- SignalModel results: US-China conflict and Russia sanctions are the main short-term drag on northern cooperation gains
- TrendRecord trade surplus without corresponding corporate earnings0 signals
- IssueTrade policy uncertainty and protectionism as the dominant downside risk to global growth0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalU.S. Treasury Designates Russia-Linked Payment Network A7 a Transnational Criminal Organization
- SignalUS bilateral trade deals carry investment pledges exceeding 5 trillion dollars
4-10 years 6
- IssueA new phase of globalisation that also produces unexpected instability1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendCross-border positions widen and face political limits2 signals
- SignalGeoeconomic fragmentation is weakening cross-bloc flows
- IssuePolicy area 3: states balance strategic interest, core values and competitiveness at once3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueRerouting through third countries may raise indirect imports from China rather than cut them1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueWatch point: reconfiguration slides into protectionism that buys resilience with inflation1 trends · 0 signals
11-30 years 1
- IssueTransformation of the international economic and monetary system0 trends · 1 signals
Other 1
- IssueBeyond Classifications1 trends · 0 signals
Climate Change & Adaptation 24
0-3 years 11
- Signal44% accept a 2% sustainable packaging surcharge if it is disclosed
- SignalClimate Bonds Initiative proposes 'RX' resilience-transformation agenda for Japan
- SignalClimate policy. Is the era of unlimited emissions offsets ending?
- SignalEmissions under carbon pricing up roughly fivefold since 2005
- SignalGlobal disaster losses reached about 242 billion dollars in 2024, 15 percent above the 20-year average
- SignalHong Kong Tables Adaptation Framework Under New Taxonomy Phase
- SignalKorea's emissions trading scheme enters its fourth phase in 2026 with carbon prices too low to drive abatement
- SignalMIT Study Finds Carbon Credit Prices Reflect Buyers' Preferences Far More Than Climate Impact
- SignalMethane cuts seen as climate finance's fastest, cheapest opportunity
- SignalRadiative cooling paint costs around $6 per square metre with reported 15-20% energy savings
- SignalUS Appeals Court Rules EPA Cannot Block Billions in Climate Grants
4-10 years 9
- TrendClimate change turns into a core economic variable as carbon regulation tightens2 signals
- SignalDutch court grants standing in climate lawsuit against ING bank
- IssueKey point: climate losses land on public and private budgets and create debt1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendMacrotrend 6: efficiency gives way to sufficiency as the organizing goal6 signals
- IssueRecalibrating carbon pricing to reconcile climate action with industrial competitiveness1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueRising climate damage costs, subsidence and uninsurability2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueSufficiency thresholds sit unreconciled beside the report's own compute expansion forecasts2 trends · 2 signals
- SignalVerified reductions are dated to become standard metrics by 2030 and sufficiency structural after that
- SignalWEF ranks extreme weather as the top ten-year global risk and UNDRR projects 40 percent more extreme events by 2030
11-30 years 2
- SignalClimate models may understate Korea's nonlinear losses
- IssueRising disasters from extreme weather events0 trends · 1 signals
Other 2
- IssueScenario: enterprises cap compute per model, per team or per customer1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe Ultimate Climate Calculator1 trends · 0 signals
Resources, Food & Water 7
- SignalConsumption shift said to raise food, water and energy demand by 35%, 40% and 50% by 2030
- TrendDecarbonisation raising prices of clean energy minerals0 signals
- IssueFood and water security under consumption and climate pressure3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueRisk: slow repair of Gulf energy facilities keeps oil supply tight through 20270 trends · 0 signals
- TrendTellurium and rare earths harder to source, worsening price volatility0 signals
- SignalUp to 40% of food crops lost to pests; diseases cost 220 billion dollars
- IssueWatch point: swings in resource value, including from manipulation, move power unpredictably1 trends · 0 signals
Ecosystems & Biodiversity 5
- SignalBelize reef restoration after Hurricane Lisa and 81,580 hectares of insured reef in Hawaii
- SignalBiodiversity economy policies drafted far more often than implemented
- IssueEcological decline as a systemic risk to health, economy and resilience3 trends · 0 signals
- SignalMesoamerican Reef insured in 2019; 850,000 dollars paid after Hurricane Delta
- TrendParametric insurance for ecosystems to finance nature restoration2 signals
Geopolitics & Security 35
0-3 years 18
- Signal17% have no method to assess geopolitical impact and only 26% plan scenarios quarterly
- Signal23 NATO allies expected to meet 2% of GDP on defence in 2024
- Signal81% report geopolitical and economic threats to 2025 technology investment
- SignalIndividuals linked to Putin seen as highest sanctions evasion risk
- SignalIran sells oil at 20% premium as US ends blockade threat on Strait of Hormuz
- IssueMiddle East scenarios: early de-escalation or a prolonged stalemate and their effects on Korean growth and inflation0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalMilitary spending up 9.4% in a year, 2.5% of global GDP
- SignalNATO members agree to lift defence spending toward five percent of GDP by 2035
- SignalOECD average defence R&D budgets rose 16.1 percent in 2023 as dual-use collaboration grows
- SignalOil Rallies as Iran Adopts Offensive Stance Over Hormuz
- SignalOnly three European allies already meet NATO's 3.5 percent core defence benchmark
- SignalReArm Europe tools: a defence escape clause and 150 billion euros of SAFE loans
- IssueRegional conflicts, a Chinese slowdown and climate shocks as further downside risks0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalReport states 36 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS
- IssueState threats the most connected risk, with 11 links to acute risks1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalUK defence spending to reach 2.5% of GDP from April 2027
- SignalUS pressure for 5 percent defence spending and doubts over its commitment to Europe
- SignalUkraine Strikes Grain Terminals at Russia's Novorossiysk Port, Killing Three
4-10 years 9
- TrendEurope takes on greater defence responsibility within NATO5 signals
- TrendFour pillars of the liberal international order come under simultaneous pressure3 signals
- SignalGovernments commit multibillion-dollar national AI programmes in 2024 and 2025
- TrendGrowing influence of the Gulf states0 signals
- SignalJapan and South Korea commit national semiconductor and AI budgets including funds for local models
- IssueKorea needs a new composite grand strategy as the framework behind its rise weakens1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueMeeting NATO's 5 percent Hague pledge and its fiscal and growth trade-offs1 trends · 2 signals
- TrendSerious and organised crime growing and exploiting technology7 signals
- IssueSovereignty becomes a selling point and capital is expected to follow national champions1 trends · 1 signals
11-30 years 7
- IssueCoordinated Korea-Japan engagement in a future North Korean opening0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueExpansion of transnational crime0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalG7 economic and political influence projected to shift to E7 by 2050
- TrendMegatrend 7: shift of power towards the East and the South8 signals
- IssueRisk chaining: cascading compound risks0 trends · 1 signals
- TrendTrend N: Fracturing of global governance into rival blocs1 signals
- TrendUS security strategy shifts from unipolar hegemony toward selective engagement4 signals
Other 1
- IssueUnregulated cryptoassets fuelling organised crime and straining services1 trends · 0 signals
Democracy & Governance 46
0-3 years 25
- Signal85% of leaders regret past decisions and 72% report data-driven decision paralysis
- Signal86% judge funding for risk reduction inadequate
- Signal91 percent of high performers centralize technology investment prioritization
- SignalCambodia has the group's weakest Business Perception and falls well below peers on Public Governance
- SignalCanadian data claims arts prescribing cuts primary care visits 42% and returns $4.43 per dollar
- SignalChina expands its footprint in multilateral institutions and development finance
- SignalClarity on must-win battles falls from 56% of executives to 27% of middle managers
- SignalCongressional Bill H.R. 6500 Signed into Law
- IssueDesigning a full-cycle management system for large R&D after the feasibility review is abolished0 trends · 2 signals
- SignalEngland publishes a first Men's Health Strategy with GBP 3.6 million for male suicide prevention
- IssueFunding for risk reduction judged inadequate1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalGuyana Elections Commission Hasn't Met in a Year, Still Doesn't Reflect Election Outcome
- SignalInvestors' Rights spread runs from 1.7 SD above peers in Malaysia to 2.0 SD below in Lao PDR
- SignalJohnson & Johnson assigns a data steward to each stage of the financial process during its ERP rollout
- SignalKKR to Pay Record $250M Penalty Over Repeated Merger-Filing Violations
- SignalKorea exempts R&D programmes from preliminary feasibility review and adds pre-planning checks
- SignalKorea's new planning and budget ministry plans a Future Vision 2045
- IssueKorean strength: Compressed development experience0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalManagerial protectionism (41%) is the top barrier to reallocating budget and talent
- SignalPrioritizing and planning technology investment is the most centralized activity at 78 percent
- SignalProcurement Act 2023 in force from February 2025
- SignalSenate Leaders Reach Deal to Avert Government Shutdown Before 2026 Midterms
- IssueStructural redesign without workflow redesign produces a cost rebound1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe US fiscal tightrope: too little tightening risks crisis, too much risks stagnation1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalUS Firms' Q2 Lobbying Revenue Reportedly Hits Record High
4-10 years 12
- IssueConverting capital momentum into sustained growth turns on workforce talent and public governance1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueCritiques of the Draghi diagnosis: overstated gains and neglected regional divergence1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendFinancial, regulatory and public institutions are failing to support innovation4 signals
- IssueFour state-level constraints on the AI productivity lever1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGap between future visions and executable strategies1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueGrowth-oriented decentralisation with super-regional planning, budgets and regional finance0 trends · 1 signals
- SignalHong Kong unveils its first Five-Year Plan alongside Policy Address
- IssueInstitutional framework is the systematic weak point of the six growth markets1 trends · 7 signals
- IssueInstitutional trust is falling and historically hard to rebuild1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendKorea's rapid rise coexists with a deepening sense of national crisis0 signals
- IssueLack of focus, dispersed spending and weak coordination as root causes of EU underperformance1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueThe plan calls for a 'new recovery' through inclusive growth and 'democratic innovation' as the spirit of the age3 trends · 0 signals
11-30 years 7
- TrendA 'great regression' of the world order: wavering globalisation, populism and depleted civic solidarity0 signals
- IssueClaim that a stronger middle class produces trust and virtuous governance1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueScenario: Agile Pioneer0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueScenario: Gilded Cage0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueScenario: Isolated Innovator0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueScenario: Worn Anchor0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWeakening functions of local administration0 trends · 1 signals
Other 2
- IssueBiodiversity litigation against corporations and governments1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueEarly-warning system and present path0 trends · 6 signals
Tech·Digital Policy 13
- Signal2018 Code on Genetic Testing and Insurance limits genomic data in insurance
- SignalCryptoassets brought into UK financial promotions regime in October 2023
- SignalDesigning Inclusive Crypto-Asset Dispute Resolution: A Hybrid AI and Smart Contract Online Dispute Resolution Framework for Vulnerable Users
- IssueDominant firms threatening relocation to extract lower taxes and regulation1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalFrance requires two-month shelf notices on downsized products
- IssueGenetic discrimination from routine use of biological data1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalISO 45003 and the EU CSRD pull workforce wellbeing into board-level accountability
- IssueInternational standards for stablecoins issued outside bank supervision1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePlan vision: new growth shared by all through science innovation and the AI transition0 trends · 0 signals
- TrendStronger regulation making the UK a less attractive fraud target0 signals
- SignalThe US Inflation Reduction Act and health technology assessment regimes are named as pricing pressure
- SignalTreasury proceeding with a cryptoasset regulatory regime from November 2024
- SignalUS stablecoin legislation in July 2025 pulls banks into the sector for the first time since 2022
Demographics & Migration 13
- SignalCapital-region share of Korea's population hit a record 51.7 percent in 2023
- SignalGWI cites 2030 boomer threshold and 70 percent long-term support estimate
- SignalGreek old age ratio put at 37.8% in 2020 and 79.7% in 2060
- SignalJapan's population has been shrinking since 2010 and both countries face deep decline by 2050
- SignalKorea entered a super-aged phase while dependency pressure accelerates
- IssueKorean vulnerability: Demographic compression0 trends · 2 signals
- TrendLow fertility and ageing are bringing a demographic onus to the Korean economy1 signals
- TrendMegatrend 3: Demographic change and transition to a shrinking society1 signals
- SignalOECD old age ratio from 20% to 31% over forty years, and 58% projected for 2060
- SignalOld-age dependency ratios in Korea and Japan are projected to approach 80 by 2050
- TrendOver-65 share projected to rise from 19% to 22% by 20320 signals
- TrendRapid population ageing weighs on both labour input and productivity2 signals
- SignalThe EU workforce is projected to shrink by about two million people a year toward 2040
Cities & Housing 7
- SignalAustralia was the exception as real estate corrected nearly everywhere in 2025
- TrendCapital-region concentration is spreading production and income gaps into asset polarisation1 signals
- SignalCapital-region concentration widens output, investment and population gaps
- TrendHigh mortgage rates and rents widening intergenerational wealth gaps0 signals
- SignalNon-capital regions' share of Korea's GRDP fell from 51.3% in 2013 to 47.7% in 2023
- SignalThe capital region now holds over half of output and population and a rising share of university places
- IssueWithout escaping the center-basic, region-industrial yoke, Korea risks reverse growth1 trends · 1 signals
Welfare & Health 31
0-3 years 12
- Signal14.3 million people in relative poverty after housing costs
- SignalA $200 million public-private partnership was announced in March 2026 to fund further trials
- SignalA cited 30% premium for healthier food sits against the report's own 3-12% premiums
- TrendEconomic pressure pushing consumers towards food fraud exposure0 signals
- SignalHealth insurers describe the arrangement as a growth channel on 2025 earnings calls
- SignalIncome and wealth gaps widened and vulnerable households came under more strain
- SignalKorea's income inequality stays above the OECD while wealth concentration hit a record in March 2025
- SignalNon-communicable diseases account for 78.1 percent of deaths and 84.5 percent of medical spending in Korea
- SignalPoverty falling in 80% of countries while sub-Saharan extreme poverty stays at 46%
- SignalSmall employers lead adoption while large-employer uptake grows faster
- SignalThree common conditions each cost US employers over USD 300 per employee annually
- TrendTrend 8: US employers break the bundled group health plan into a fixed budget3 signals
4-10 years 9
- IssueAn enhancement divide layered on the digital divide1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueEasing out-of-pocket medical costs as new medically vulnerable groups emerge1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendInequality in the Netherlands driven by social class rather than place1 signals
- IssuePension, health and long term care systems under ageing pressure1 trends · 1 signals
- IssuePer-patient cost above $100,000 could confine the therapy to well-resourced health systems1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePolarisation is judged to be damaging growth through human capital, fertility and demand3 trends · 2 signals
- IssuePsychedelic access stays limited until treatments are insured and system-integrated2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRebuilding the measurement of human need around decent living standards1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendRisks falling disproportionately on vulnerable groups with compounding disadvantage7 signals
11-30 years 7
- SignalKorea's national pension faces deficit in 2041 and depletion in 2055 under current rules
- IssueMounting fiscal burden of welfare and pensions0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueObesity consolidating as a structural public health challenge tied to income1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalPublic pensions carry most of the senior gap as support ratios shrink
- IssueRising welfare costs and pension sustainability under population ageing1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueVulnerable groups and the adequacy of the social safety net0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWelfare systems need redesign as the senior gap widens1 trends · 2 signals
Other 3
- IssueClimate change hitting lower-income households via food and insurance1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueHealthy life expectancy stalling without prevention and early detection1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalInvesting in employee health could add USD 3.7 to 11.7 trillion in economic value
Education & Generations 2
AI & Computing 39
0-3 years 31
- Signal63% of finance leaders have fully deployed and actively use AI in the function
- Signal68 percent expect to reach the highest level of AI adoption by end 2026
- Signal70% of organizations struggling with gen AI ROI need at least a year to resolve it
- Signal74 percent see business value from AI but only 24 percent achieve ROI across use cases
- Signal88% deploy AI while just as many report no bottom-line impact
- SignalA vendor reports agent deployment in six weeks raising team throughput five to sixfold
- TrendAI investment acts as the main growth engine but faces cost and cycle limits1 signals
- TrendAI raising scam volume and credibility while aiding detection0 signals
- SignalAI ranks second to cloud for cost savings; 49% of owners use it to find cost reductions against 40%
- SignalAI-related investment added more to US growth in 2025 than during the dot-com boom
- SignalAgentic opportunity concentrates in FP&A, sales and profitability (48%), working capital (46%), and expense management (44%)
- SignalAlgar Telecom's AI agent reviewed 25% of first invoices and captured USD 1.5 million in nine months
- SignalAllianz runs a generative AI platform with more than 60,000 active users
- SignalAmazon reports 250M Rufus users, +140% monthly users, and 60% higher conversion
- SignalEarly warning 4: Qualitative R&D productivity
- SignalEast and South-East Asia puts financial crisis and AI in its top ten
- TrendFinance AI adoption is broad while measurable value and agent integration lag behind9 signals
- SignalGraybar reports working-capital benefits from a technology-enabled transformation
- SignalHPE calls its 18-month finance AI journey transformative
- SignalHPE has opened agentic AI solutions to its whole finance organization
- TrendInnovation compounds: technology gains multiply rather than add0 signals
- SignalInterviewees use AI to scan receivables and flag accounts likely to go delinquent
- IssueKorea: AI investment is both the engine of resilience and a source of structural vulnerability2 trends · 0 signals
- SignalLinux Foundation Launches Tokenomics Foundation With 29 Members Including JPMorgan and IBM
- SignalOnly 21% see clear measurable value from AI and only 14% have fully integrated agents
- SignalStrategy-leading finance leaders outpace supporting peers on cloud, AI value, and agent integration
- SignalTax leaders apply AI to transfer-pricing documentation and corporate income tax filings
- IssueThe binding constraint is moving from pilots to AI embedded in everyday finance operations1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalTogether AI raises $800M at $8.3B valuation for open-source AI infrastructure
- TrendTrend 1: measuring the return on AI agents becomes a moving target4 signals
- IssueWhether a single year of ambition can be executed is the report's central open question2 trends · 0 signals
4-10 years 6
- SignalAI productivity gains presented as fiscal relief for ageing states
- TrendAI reclassified from frontier technology to systemic force0 signals
- IssueAdvantage moves from model access to imagination and deployment governance1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendEU lag in digital technology and a static industrial structure2 signals
- TrendKPMG macro scan: digital sovereignty, AI-linked finance, agentic work and a computing arms race0 signals
- IssueWorld models enter commercialisation while most laboratories remain in research1 trends · 1 signals
11-30 years 2
- TrendAI-driven technological acceleration and the platform economy produce 'growth amid confusion'0 signals
- IssueAdaptation itself distributes benefits unequally1 trends · 0 signals
Bio & Health Tech 8
- SignalAbout nine in 10 clinical drug candidates fail, which the chapter partly attributes to computing error
- SignalAn estimated $79.4 billion of public investment built the mRNA infrastructure now reused
- SignalBrazil's GLP-1 patents expired in March 2026 and price is the stated barrier for 35% of interested consumers
- IssueFully autonomous laboratories draw capital but remain outside mainstream practice1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalGene-editing cargo crossed the blood-brain barrier in 2025 and a $1.5 billion pact followed
- TrendInsurer and provider incentives driving wearable data collection0 signals
- SignalProjections put 25 million Americans on GLP-1 treatment by 2030
- SignalVoice AI platforms hit record deal activity in 2025 with most rated as deploying or scaling
Energy & Climate Tech 11
- IssueAsymmetric social costs of electricity demand forecast errors0 trends · 2 signals
- SignalEuropean industrial electricity prices remain far above US and Asian levels
- SignalFusion Energy Startup Funding Surge — Focused Energy $240M Series A, CFS $3B Total
- IssueGrowth scenarios for Korean energy demand: primary demand ranges from 0.4 percent annual growth to a 0.2 percent decline2 trends · 1 signals
- SignalIEA 2026 World Energy Investment: record $3.4tn investment, but coal spending hits highest level since 2012
- SignalJuly 4 tax-credit deadline pressures US solar/wind project pipeline; $17B federal loan for 10 nuclear reactors
- SignalKEEI projects Korea's total energy demand to stagnate at 0.1 percent annual growth, reaching 308.2 Mtoe in 2030
- SignalKorea's total energy consumption grew only 1.0 percent a year in 2020 to 2025
- IssuePossible tariff increases and weather volatility as constraints on Korean building energy demand1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalSalton Sea geothermal lithium project received a stated $1.4 billion federal loan in February 2026
- IssueWeak incentives and the cost of AI downtime have kept data centres inflexible1 trends · 1 signals
Space & Mobility 3
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 24
0-3 years 19
- Signal41% of early-stage teams cite legacy technology as an AI barrier against 31% of AI leaders
- Signal51 percent say legacy processes are what depress returns on technology spending
- Signal51% of cost owners deploy cloud to optimize costs against 36% of supporters
- Signal63 percent say the cost of fixing tech debt is holding back new initiatives
- Signal71% are modernizing core infrastructure and 23% spend 6% to 10% of revenue doing it
- Signal8 percent of high performers are blocked by tech debt against 45 percent of the rest
- SignalA Brazilian bank deploys red agents alongside human experts for adversarial testing
- SignalA deepfake CFO on a video call induced a $25 million payout
- SignalCompanies stand up FinOps teams that fuse finance and DevOps to govern cloud spend
- TrendCompute strategy shifts from cloud-first to workload-matched hybrid placement9 signals
- SignalCyberwarfare and ransomware increasingly target data infrastructure
- SignalData breach cost of $4.44 million is cited as the driver of quantum-safe redesign
- SignalData centre build-out financed through securitisation while capacity localises
- IssueData privacy becomes the gating condition for expanding AI across finance1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalDeepfake executive impersonation moves from attempt to realised loss
- SignalDeloitte's 2025 MarginPlus survey names digital infrastructure (49%) and asset inflexibility (45%) as top internal barriers
- SignalFewer firms paying ransoms but average ransom more than doubled
- IssueOrganizations most constrained by tech debt forecast the largest maturity leaps1 trends · 4 signals
- IssueThe cost-saving instrument itself becomes a cost risk when cloud use goes unmonitored1 trends · 1 signals
4-10 years 5
- IssueAI factories turn spare compute into a saleable service alongside internal workloads1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueERP modernization is a multiyear precondition sitting under the finance AI agenda1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendQuantum computing and cyber-physical attacks threaten critical infrastructure5 signals
- IssueRace to upgrade encryption before quantum computers make it obsolete1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalReport forecasts half of security software spending going to preemptive solutions by 2030
Values & Lifestyles 26
0-3 years 17
- Signal59% notice silent downsizing and 66% would rather take an open price rise
- Signal60-62% will pay more for quality and 52-56% for a trusted brand
- Signal65% say loyalty programmes influence their switching decisions
- Signal71% say small treats help them handle financial stress
- SignalAsked what they would do with an extra $200, consumers most often said save it for a vacation
- IssueBrand loyalty becomes conditional on perceived fairness rather than familiarity1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueCognitive friction, not discount depth, decides which promotions work1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalCompanies lose 30% of value in a trust breach; trust outranks price for consumers
- SignalHealth and wellness is a top splurge category for only about 8% of consumers
- SignalIndia's experience economy accelerates on rising incomes and a young urban base
- TrendIndulgence shifts from luxury to emotional offset within disciplined budgets2 signals
- SignalReported impulse restraint fell from 71% to 54% in a single year
- SignalSecondhand buying is motivated by access to premium goods and the hunt, not only by price
- TrendSmart downshifting: consumers trade down and trade up within the same basket7 signals
- SignalSurvey: both the public and experts most want science to build a more prosperous nation
- TrendTrend 3: spending on meaningful experiences holds up against the instinct to cut back8 signals
- SignalUS per capita wealth is $17.5 million in the top 1% against $9,600 in the bottom half
4-10 years 9
- IssueData, attention and now trust as successive intangible resources1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendFairness in pricing and policy converges with product quality as the value test12 signals
- IssueHolding the cultural status quo is itself a choice with cost1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendLoyalty shifts from points accumulation to a two-way relationship4 signals
- IssuePaper wealth widens wealth inequality and raises the entry barrier to asset markets1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendThe currency of trust5 signals
- IssueThe value-now consumer applies scrutiny selectively rather than pulling back uniformly1 trends · 2 signals
- TrendTrend 4: budget coping hardens into a durable repertoire of resourceful consumption3 signals
- TrendValue expands beyond price into fairness, trust, and emotion2 signals