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2026-10-08
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The Futures

Issue European fertiliser dependence on imported natural gas weakens strategic autonomy

Summary

The report points out that in conventional ammonia production both stages, hydrogen generation and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen, depend on natural gas. This not only enlarges the sector's ecological footprint but also leaves Europe heavily reliant on imported resources, weakening its strategic autonomy. Because ammonia-based fertilisers support around 90 percent of European farm output, this dependence becomes a vulnerability for the food system as a whole. The report offers alternatives such as producing hydrogen by renewable-powered electrolysis, modernising the Haber-Bosch process and decentralising production near renewable energy. Biological approaches using modified bacteria and enzymes to supply nitrogen close to crops could also greatly cut reliance on synthetic fertilisers. The report views decarbonising fertiliser production as a strategic bet for transforming agriculture and securing food supplies.

Classification

Region menusGlobal Europe
Impactscope:transnational · geo_region:europe · strategic_group:EU
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026
Last updated2026-09-30 11:23 KST

Evidence 1

Constituent trends 1

Directly linked signals 1

Relation types: constitutes · direct_urgent

Public id: fm-16662188e3ab