Signal Chinese goods exports up 40% since the housing crash while imports flatline
Summary
Eurasia Group reports that China's goods exports have grown by 40% since its housing crash began, while the volume of its imports has barely changed. Last year the Chinese trade surplus rose above one trillion dollars. The report calls Xi Jinping's industrial policy beggar-thy-neighbour, aimed at making other countries dependent on Chinese supply chains while China becomes self-sufficient. For most partners, it argues, trade with China now brings deindustrialisation and slower growth. Some partners, the European Union among them, will react with tariffs and subsidies, but few alternative supply chains exist.
Classification
Main topicTrade & Economic Security
Secondary topicsIndustry & Supply Chains
Region menusGlobal
Occurrencescope:country · geo_region:east_asia · country:CN
Impactscope:global
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-07-25)
Published2026-01
Last updated2026-09-30 12:56 KST
Evidence 1
- Top Risks 2026 Eurasia Group page=29;section=Top Risk #7: China's deflation trap 2026-01 accessed 2026-07-25
Part of trends 1
- TrendChina's deflation trap4 signals
Directly linked issues 0
No objects.
Relation types: supports
Public id: fm-22e347cf73da
