Signal EU import surveillance widens from trade diversion to structural overcapacity

Summary

In April 2025 the Commission set up an import surveillance task force to watch for trade diversion caused by tariff increases in major markets, using customs surveillance data to monitor surges into the EU. Separately, from March 2025 it began monitoring imports of certain ethylene and ammonia-related chemicals through customs clearance data. For those chemicals the Commission explicitly attributed the sharp rise in import market share to Chinese overproduction and to the spread of trade remedies in other countries. In July 2026 the tool was reorganised into an import barometer, shifting its focus from short-term surges caused by diversion to long-lasting import growth driven by overcapacity fostered by state-led policies and support. The purpose is to identify early the products where import surges, falling prices and injury to EU industry are actually occurring.