Signal Korea's 11th Basic Plan counts semiconductor clusters as separate additional demand

Summary

The eleventh Basic Plan judged that large new investments in advanced industries, above all semiconductor clusters, cannot be captured by growth-rate models alone. After reviewing all six designated advanced industries, it chose to include only semiconductors in the additional-demand scope. The demand is computed by multiplying the future contracted capacity of fabrication plants by an assumed utilisation rate, drawing on firms' expansion plans including the Yongin cluster. The resulting increment above trend in 2038 is 1.1TWh of consumption and 1.4GW of peak load. The author later cautions that such figures rest on company investment intentions and could shift with market conditions in the chip industry.