Signal Korea's 11th Basic Plan adds 63TWh of electrification demand above trend by 2038

Summary

For electrification the tenth Basic Plan relied on the GCAM model developed with KAIST. The eleventh plan pointed to that model's weak explanatory power by sector and switched to the Korea Energy Economics Institute's EGMS model. It also limits the estimate to measures backed by concrete policy targets and plans scheduled for introduction by 2038, while acknowledging that the methodology needs refinement. Under this approach the increment above trend in 2038 is 63.0TWh of consumption and 11.0GW of peak load. That is larger than the data centre and advanced industry increments put together.