Trend Overpowered: China masters the electric stack while the US cedes it
Summary
Eurasia Group names as its second top risk for 2026 the widening gap between China and the United States in the electric stack, the set of batteries, motors, power electronics plus onboard computing that underlies EVs, drones, robots, smart grids and AI. China now controls most battery and magnet production and added 429 GW of power capacity in 2024 against 51 GW for the US. Washington, meanwhile, is promoting oil, gas and coal and cutting support for solar and batteries. Emerging markets are expected to shift from damage control to long-term planning that increasingly favours cheap Chinese equipment. The cumulative result, the report argues, is a geopolitical turning point in which more of the world's energy and industry rests on Chinese foundations.
Classification
Evidence 2
- Top Risks 2026 Eurasia Group page=9;section=Top Risk #2: Overpowered 2026-01 accessed 2026-07-25
- Top Risks 2026 Eurasia Group page=10;section=Top Risk #2: Overpowered 2026-01 accessed 2026-07-25
Futures articles 1
Observed signals 5
- SignalChina holds about 75% of battery output and 90% of neodymium magnets
- SignalChinese renewable technology exports overtake US fossil fuel exports
- SignalThe electric stack is 99% cheaper than in 1990, and the next Five-Year Plan doubles down
- SignalUS oil output at 13.5 million barrels a day, largest producer since 2018
- SignalUS power demand rising ~6% a year against eight-year interconnection queues
Part of issues 0
No objects.
Relation types: supports
Public id: fm-4e5f63efef01