Issue Permacrisis and a creeping technocratic shift toward 2040

Summary

The report finds that the accumulation of crises, including climate, security and migration, creates a risk that the state of exception becomes the norm, a situation it calls a permacrisis. Towards 2040, calls for decisiveness and speed could drive a creeping shift from liberal democracy to a technocratic governing culture in which decisions rest on emergency decrees and the insights of artificial intelligence rather than parliamentary debate. There is no acute democratic crisis in the Netherlands, but institutions, democratic norms and countervailing powers appear to be weakening gradually. Without strong independent advice and scrutiny, policy proposals are less well founded and long-term effects receive less weight, while institutional erosion opens space for disinformation and emotional politics. The report adds that the growing influence of technology companies is also a significant factor in the design of public systems and in policy room for manoeuvre, though it is not always recognised.