Signal A 50% probability of longevity escape velocity by the mid-to-late 2030s

Summary

This signal is a forecast about when medicine might outpace aging itself. Leading longevity researchers, among them the biogerontologist Aubrey de Grey of the LEV Foundation, estimate a 50% chance of reaching longevity escape velocity by the mid-to-late 2030s. The term describes the point at which medical progress adds to life expectancy faster than people age. EY places this prediction within a wave of longevity research sped up by AI-driven drug discovery. It argues that much longer careers would change how organizations build capabilities over a working life. It also warns of complex questions about pension systems, healthcare costs and fairness across generations.