Signal Scientists Detect Sharp Acceleration in Global Warming Since Around 2015

Summary

Researchers G. Foster and S. Rahmstorf published a study in Geophysical Research Letters, reported by ScienceDaily on August 1, 2026, finding the first statistically significant evidence that Earth's long-term warming rate has accelerated since around 2015. After removing the effects of natural variability such as El Nino and volcanic eruptions, the team found global temperatures have risen at an estimated pace of about 0.35 degrees Celsius per decade over the past ten years, compared with an average rate of just under 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade from 1970 to 2015. The acceleration was confirmed with over 98% statistical certainty across five major datasets, marking the fastest warming pace since instrumental temperature records began in 1880. The study addresses a methodological gap, since raw temperature data without removing natural variability had made it difficult to statistically confirm whether an acceleration was occurring. Whether the accelerated pace continues will depend heavily on future carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas, the researchers noted.