Signal Southern European populations could fall around 10 percent by 2050, mainly through low fertility

Summary

Citing a recent Joint Research Centre study, the report expects Europe's demographic change to unfold unevenly across regions. Central and eastern Europe face a rapid fall in population to 2050 as low birth rates, unfavourable migration flows and an age structure marked by decades of decline combine. In southern Europe, projected losses are driven almost wholly by fertility, and Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Malta could each shrink by close to 10 percent. France, Germany and the Netherlands, by contrast, may see gentler declines thanks to higher immigration and birth rates holding steady above southern levels. The report expects these shifts to shape the labour force and labour market dynamics. This is the starting point for its argument that Europe's workforce will depend more on mobilising talent than on headcount.