Issue Scenario branching and robust strategy

Summary

KDI's scenario chapter warns that the most dangerous trap in strategy is betting everything on the single future that looks most plausible. Drawing on scenario planning developed at Shell in the 1970s, it asks two questions instead: which early signals indicate a shift toward each path, and which strategies work across several paths at once. The report maps four scenarios on two axes, internal social-political capacity and external technological autonomy, and treats them as a strategic map rather than a prophecy. It recommends no-regret investments valid in every scenario, such as stronger social safety nets, long-term basic research and talent, and diversified supply chains for minerals and energy. The value of the exercise lies in detecting branch signals early and tracking them with indicators.