Trend New LNG supply, led by the United States, pushing global gas prices down toward oversupply by 2029

Summary

As LNG volumes that reached final investment decisions, largely in the United States, begin production, large amounts of new supply are set to reach the global market and push international gas prices down. Spot LNG prices are forecast at 17.7 dollars per million British thermal units from summer 2026 to winter 2027 and to enter a falling phase once new supply arrives during 2027. Long-term contract volumes in Asia, which are heavily linked to oil prices, are expected to fall more slowly than spot prices because oil prices are unlikely to stabilise quickly. From 2028 rising output from existing projects increases supply further, and from 2029 a large expansion of liquefaction capacity is expected to push the market into oversupply and drive prices down quickly. US liquefaction capacity is projected to rise from about 90 to more than 200 million tonnes a year around 2030, over 30 percent of global supply.