Signal Analysis: China's CO2 climbs 2% in early 2026 due to 'wasted' wind and solar

Summary

Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief, led by analyst Lauri Myllyvirta and published 4 June 2026, found China's CO2 emissions rose 2% in the first quarter of 2026 as the country burned more coal and gas than a year earlier despite record new wind and solar capacity. Wind capacity grew 23% year-on-year and solar 33%, but curtailment also rose sharply, hitting 9.2% for solar and 8.5% for wind. CREA's analysis found that clean power equivalent to more than France's entire quarterly electricity output was discarded instead of being fed into the grid. The root cause identified was inflexible management of coal power plants and grid/market rules rather than a lack of grid infrastructure, following a shift to market-based electricity pricing that reduced incentives for grid integration of renewables. The rebound follows China's first full calendar-year decline in emissions in 2025 and 21 consecutive months of flat-or-falling emissions, with the trajectory going forward depending on power-system reforms in the 15th five-year plan.