Signal Export shares rose in 6 of 14 Chinese manufacturing sectors, led by cars and electrical machinery

Summary

Mayr and co-authors (2026) examined 14 Chinese manufacturing sectors and found clear overcapacity on their dynamic criteria in 10, including chemical fibres, electronics, electrical machinery, ferrous metals and general machinery. In 11 of the 14 sectors, however, inventories were the main adjustment mechanism, and the export share rose markedly in only six: pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastics, general machinery, special machinery, cars and electrical machinery. Between 2020 and 2024 exports to the EU from these six sectors grew faster than China's total industrial exports to the EU, with cars and electrical machinery contributing disproportionately. Lithium-ion batteries and inverters stood out in electrical machinery and electric vehicles in cars. The authors state that their results do not support the claim that Chinese industrial policy deliberately built overcapacity to flood world markets, and that value changes alone cannot confirm higher export volumes.