Signal Spain's labour force could shrink by up to 3 million by 2050 at constant participation

Summary

The report estimates that if labour participation rates by age and sex remain at today's levels, Eurostat's baseline scenario implies Spain's active population could fall by as many as three million people by 2050. Projections from Spain's statistics institute, INE, which assume more positive net migration, show a much more limited drop. The baseline is built by applying average participation rates for 2020 to 2024 to the projected population structure for 2025 to 2050. The report stresses that this outcome is not inevitable. Raising employability among groups with still low participation, such as women over 55 or low-skilled young people, could greatly reduce the decline or even stabilise the workforce. It sets out desirable scenarios in which female participation reaches Swedish levels or participation among people over 55 rises.