Signal Nature Geoscience: 6.5 Billion People to Face Severe Water Scarcity by 2050 (Jan 2026)

Summary

Research published in Nature Geoscience, titled "Global water security threatened by rising inequality," used a machine learning forecasting model to project water scarcity under different socioeconomic development scenarios. It found that by 2050, 6.5 billion people — 65.5% of the projected global population — will face severe water scarcity under a high-inequality "fragmentation" scenario. Extending the projection to the end of the century, the same model finds 62% of the global population could still face severe water scarcity by 2100. The study emphasizes that the degree of inequality in water access and governance, not just physical supply, is the critical driver of these outcomes. It argues that more equitable, cooperative water management offers a path away from the worst-case trajectory.