Trend Population pyramids turn into obelisks as low fertility spreads from rich to emerging economies

Summary

Regional fertility trends from 1950 to 2023 show that falling fertility is not confined to any one region. The decline began in advanced economies, and the first wave of high-income countries in advanced Asia, Europe and North America fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman decades ago. The trend is now spreading quickly to later-wave emerging economies such as India, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa, which are expected to face similar change within one or two generations. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region still above replacement. As falling fertility and ageing proceed together, age structures in most regions are becoming narrow at both ends and bulging in the middle. In more developed economies they are approaching an obelisk, a column of nearly equal width, according to McKinsey projections to 2100.