Signal Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C; renewables surpass coal

Summary

Resources for the Future's 'Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C' harmonizes 15 scenarios from 8 organizations and concludes plainly that 'it has become clear' the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C stretch goal is 'no longer plausible' to achieve. Despite that, the report projects renewables leading world electricity generation, with wind and solar combined reaching 40-72% of global generation by 2050 depending on scenario, and total renewables (including hydro, biomass and geothermal) rising from 30% in 2024 to 52-70% by 2050 under reference and evolving-policy scenarios, exceeding 80% under ambitious climate scenarios. Coal power is projected to decline in every scenario, from a 21% fall under the IEA's current-policies scenario to a complete phase-out under Total's most aggressive scenario, with a median decline around 48%. The report notes solar generation growth has already outpaced expectations, rising more than 35% annually and 'far outpacing even the most ambitious projections,' building on 2024's 16% growth in global renewable capacity, of which wind and solar made up 95%. Nuclear power grows under every scenario as well, by at least 31% and more than doubling under ambitious scenarios, though not tripling as more than a dozen nations have pledged. The report also flags that recent US policy shifts — withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, cutting renewable energy support, and expanding fossil fuel backing — have further complicated the path to emissions reduction even as coal separately overtook renewables in relative terms in some regional data for the first half of 2025.