Trend UK population ageing despite migration

Summary

The report defines demographic change as the effect of births, deaths and migration on the size and structure of the population, focusing on the risks an ageing population poses to public finances, housing, infrastructure, the economy and health and welfare systems. The UK population reached an estimated 67 million by mid-2021, up 3.7 million or 5.9% on mid-2011. Yet in 2020 fertility dropped to 1.58 children per woman, a low not seen since record-keeping started in 1938, before edging up to 1.61 in 2021. Net migration averaged 200,000 a year over 2011～2021, but low fertility and longer life expectancy have still made the population older. The report holds that if age-related health and working patterns stay the same, the dependency ratio will rise. A higher ratio can reduce economic productivity and may require higher taxes or more public spending to sustain welfare programmes.