Signal IMF Staff Discussion Note: New Jobs Creation in the AI Age (SDN/2026/001)

Summary

The IMF note, formally titled "Bridging Skill Gaps for the Future: New Jobs Creation in the AI Age" (SDN/2026/001), was published on 14 January 2026 by authors including Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, David Koll and colleagues, running 49 pages. It finds about one in ten job vacancies in advanced economies demands at least one new skill, a share that is roughly half as large in emerging economies, with such demand appearing first in the United States. Vacancies requiring new skills, especially IT and AI competencies (which account for over half of such demand), carry a wage premium of 3-3.4% in advanced markets, rising further when multiple new skills are required. The note reports that new skills boost average wages and employment overall but deepen labor-market polarization, benefiting high-skilled workers and, through higher service consumption, low-skilled workers, while potentially shrinking the middle class. It introduces a Skill Imbalance Index showing wide cross-country differences, recommending that economies with strong skill demand prioritize education and reskilling while those with strong skill supply should foster absorption through innovation and credit access. The note builds on an earlier 2024 IMF paper (SDN/2024/001) that found roughly 40% of global employment exposed to AI integration, rising to about 60% in advanced economies.