Trend Falling pupil numbers making schools unviable

Summary

Looking at the short-term effects of demographic change on education, the report expects that falling pupil numbers in some areas could leave many schools financially unviable and force them to close. The demographic shifts covered in the same chapter include lower fertility as people have fewer children, with the total fertility rate hitting 1.58 in 2020, the lowest since 1938. The decline in pupils is described as concentrated in particular places rather than spread evenly across the country. The report explains that working-age people moving out and retirees moving in deepen ageing in rural and coastal areas, and that Scotland and Wales could lose population without net migration. In the report's judgement, these uneven local trends could strain school finances and the wider education sector.