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2026-10-08
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The Futures

Issue Taiwan Strait contingency questions and Korea's stance

Summary

Washington supports the One China principle and opposes Taiwanese independence, but it resists any forcible or unilateral change to the status quo and values Taiwan both as a guardian of the first island chain and as a core partner in US semiconductor supply chains. China regards any outside involvement in Taiwan as a violation of its core interests in territory, sovereignty and security and responds very forcefully. For Korea, the pressing questions include whether US forces in Korea would be asked to join a Taiwan Strait conflict, Taiwan's entry into international organisations and strategic semiconductor cooperation with Taiwan. The report recommends that Korea keep to the One China principle, back a peaceful resolution, maintain strategic ambiguity on other matters and avoid stating positions on hypothetical armed conflict. It also urges institutional safeguards in the alliance modernisation talks so that Korea is not drawn into a US-China military clash against its will.

Classification

Secondary topicsIndustry & Supply Chains
Impactscope:country · geo_region:east_asia · geo_region:north_america · country:CN · country:KR · country:TW · country:US
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026-02
Last updated2026-09-30 17:59 KST

Evidence 1

Futures articles 1

Constituent trends 1

Directly linked signals 1

Relation types: constitutes · direct_urgent

Public id: fm-d025bbcf5cd4