P1 Geopolitics & Security
by main topic: 104
Issues 19
- IssueA more competitive geopolitical environment framed around the China challenge1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueArctic governance fractures as competition replaces cooperation1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueAutonomous cyber warfare would remove humans from both attack and defence1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueCompute-restriction tactics have stopped working and the report warns of technological brinkmanship1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueConflict cascades1 trends · 6 signals
- IssueDefence AI companies are expected to move into space systems next1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGeopolitical distance becomes an input to organizational design1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGovernment: sequencing frontier access faster than frameworks adapt1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueInfrastructure is positioned as the backbone of both innovation and national sovereignty1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueKey point: new geostrategic policies and a multipolar world1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKey point: research and technology already inside the geostrategic contest1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueMultilateralism off the rails1 trends · 6 signals
- IssuePolicy area 1: international relations must absorb new actors, new arenas and new entities4 trends · 2 signals
- IssuePolicy area 2: security gains from connection are inseparable from new exposure2 trends · 2 signals
- IssueSatellites are treated as exploitable computers and quantum threatens current encryption1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueScenario: mandatory domestic supply chains force clouds to split AI workloads by bloc1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSovereignty becomes a selling point and capital is expected to follow national champions1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueWatch point: a firm or its owner takes unilateral diplomatic or military action1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: small and middle powers with room to manoeuvre form more flexible alignments1 trends · 0 signals
Trends 11
- TrendConflicts proliferating and intensifying0 signals
- TrendGeotechnomics: geopolitics, technology and economics converge into one change dynamic4 signals
- TrendMegatrend 7: shift of power towards the East and the South8 signals
- TrendShift 4: geopolitical fragmentation reshapes value chains and organizational design12 signals
- TrendStory 1: technology companies and their owners contest the primacy of states4 signals
- TrendStory 3: smaller states holding strategic resources gain outsized influence6 signals
- TrendThe Sahel's G-Zero: jihadist expansion into coastal West Africa2 signals
- TrendThe drone age: violence gets cheap enough for everyone3 signals
- TrendThe rules-based international order is eroding0 signals
- TrendTrend 10: national AI strategies fragment the global market into regional ecosystems6 signals
- TrendTrend 12: defence AI companies shift from research to mass production3 signals
Signals 74
- Signal"Europeanisation of NATO" (NATO 3.0) after Ankara Summit; US troop drawdown from Germany
- Signal"Pax Silica" Framework: Nine Nations Formalize AI Infrastructure as Geopolitical Alliance Asset
- Signal17% have no method to assess geopolitical impact and only 26% plan scenarios quarterly
- Signal2026 Iran War — US-Israel Strike Iranian Nuclear Facilities, Ceasefire Fragile
- Signal29 Global South nations sign founding agreement for World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO)
- Signal72% of leaders say geopolitical uncertainty is affecting their organizations
- Signal78 countries fight beyond their borders as peace agreements become rare
- Signal81% report geopolitical and economic threats to 2025 technology investment
- SignalAmong the less affected, a third credit a diversified footprint
- SignalAt least 20 countries hold military satellites with attribution difficult
- SignalAtlantic Council: Eight ways AI will shape geopolitics in 2026; US AI Action Plan
- SignalAustralia Launches 2026 Defence Innovation, Science and Technology Strategy
- SignalBenin attack fatalities up nearly 70% as JNIM reaches Nigeria
- SignalCSIS report examines organising and sustaining a dedicated US cyber force
- SignalCivilians the majority of deaths in 14 conflicts; one in six people exposed
- SignalCooperation continues overall but peace and security cooperation keeps falling
- SignalDARPA AI Forge — Accelerating AI Breakthroughs for National Security
- SignalDrone incidents rise from 6,000 to 51,000 between 2020 and 2024
- SignalEU forging "hedging alliance" with Indo-Pacific middle powers; Macron's April 2026 Tokyo-Seoul tour
- SignalEU sanctions seven persons, three entities over Southeast Asia scam centre human rights abuses
- SignalEvery hyperscale data centre in Denmark is foreign-owned, prompting a domestic build
- SignalFifty-nine active state-based conflicts, the most since 1945
- SignalFour declared nuclear states placed in Asia
- SignalG7 economic and political influence projected to shift to E7 by 2050
- SignalGeopolitics Reshaping Semiconductor Supply Chain Risk in 2026 / US-China Chip War
- SignalGovernments commit multibillion-dollar national AI programmes in 2024 and 2025
- SignalIran sells oil at 20% premium as US ends blockade threat on Strait of Hormuz
- SignalJapan and South Korea commit national semiconductor and AI budgets including funds for local models
- SignalJapan's 2026 Defense White Paper Warns of New Ways of Warfare Driven by Drones and AI
- SignalKuwait ratifies comprehensive defense cooperation agreement with Pakistan amid Gulf tensions
- SignalLeaders in Saudi Arabia and Japan report the least geopolitical impact
- SignalMilitary AI governance under strain: the US–China dialogue
- SignalMilitary spending up 9.4% in a year, 2.5% of global GDP
- SignalMyanmar re-emerges as arena of China-India geopolitical competition amid dueling state visits
- SignalNamed firms supported Ukraine after the 2022 invasion on their own initiative
- SignalNon-state drone use spreading across Latin America and Yemen
- SignalNon-state groups conducting drone attacks rise from 6 to 91
- SignalOrganizational rigidity (38%) is the top barrier to managing global fragility
- SignalOrganizations with wider geographic spread report higher geopolitical exposure
- SignalPentagon "AI-First" Military — $54.6B DAWG Request, Anthropic "Supply Chain Risk" Designation
- SignalPentagon Cyber Defense Command Drafting Plan to Defend Critical Infrastructure
- SignalPentagon requests $54.6B for Defense Autonomous Warfare Group; Joint Chiefs: autonomous weapons "key and essential"
- SignalPentagon's Defense Cyber Defense Command Drafting Critical Infrastructure Protection Framework
- SignalPrivate military actors taking strategic roles
- SignalReport states 36 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS
- SignalReport's military rankings for China, India and Pakistan
- SignalSolomon Islands Signs US Shiprider Security Deal, Reaffirms Neutrality Amid China Ties
- SignalSolomon Islands signs Shiprider Agreement with US for maritime law enforcement
- SignalSoutheast Asia records over 230 tons of methamphetamine seized in 2024
- SignalSovereignty rules are pushing compute repatriation, most visibly outside the United States
- SignalStrategic Non-Alignment Rising: Africa, Middle East, Latin America Avoid Binary Choices
- SignalSudan: RSF committed crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing in el-Fasher (Amnesty)
- SignalTSMC Semiconductor Supply Chain Under Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk
- SignalTaiwan Investigates 17 Chinese Tech Companies Over Illegal Recruitment of High-Tech Talent
- SignalThe EU raises private space investment to reduce reliance on US capability
- SignalThe European Chips Act is cited as the EU's parallel industrial policy instrument
- SignalThe US CHIPS and Science Act is cited at roughly $52.7bn for manufacturing and research
- SignalThe leading AI chip vendor reports over 20 billion dollars of sovereign AI revenue in 2025
- SignalThe report is the stated follow-up to the May 2023 Geotechnomics foresight brief
- SignalThirty-four countries exert substantial influence abroad, up from six
- SignalThree of the five fastest-hiring AI markets are unmanned defence categories
- SignalTurkey and South Africa are named as rising while Australia and New Zealand are said to be losing ground
- SignalUN Autonomous Weapons Treaty Deadline 2026 — 164 States Support, CCW GGE Mandate Concludes
- SignalUN records 350 male victims among 484 documented conflict-related sexual violence cases in Ukraine
- SignalUS and Iran Reach Tentative 60-Day Ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding
- SignalUS threatens Iranian infrastructure over Strait of Hormuz attacks; Ukraine to export drones to US
- SignalUS withdrew forces from Nigeria after joint operation killed ISIS global deputy leader
- SignalUS-Japan $1 Billion Tech Alliance: AI, Quantum, Fusion, Biotechnology
- SignalUS–Iran conflict escalates: naval blockade reinstated, new sanctions, ICC targeted
- SignalUkraine produces over 4.5 million drones in 2025 as UAVs drive most casualties
- SignalUkraine's Zelenskyy Signs Decree Sanctioning 23 Companies, 20 Individuals Supporting Russia's Defense Industry
- SignalUkraine-Russia: Russian missile/drone strikes kill 17 in Kyiv; possible first Ukrainian ballistic missile combat use
- SignalUkrainian Naval Drones Sink Rosatom-Owned Cargo Ship Yanina in Black Sea
- SignalXinhua: APEC Meetings in Chengdu Promoted AI Development and Cooperation
Objects with this as a secondary topic 132
- Signal"Permanent instability" becomes the founding premise of 2026 cybersecurity strategy
- Signal36 percent plan to strengthen data sovereignty audits across their partner ecosystems
- Signal74% expect volatility to create new business opportunities
- SignalA $137bn Chinese mega-dam met by a $77bn Indian counter-dam programme
- SignalA $666 billion circumpolar economy with 13% of undiscovered oil
- IssueA Catalyst for Common Good1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalA Moroccan dam due in 2026 would restrict water to Algerians
- IssueA US equity reset could be triggered by AI disappointment or geopolitical disruption1 trends · 4 signals
- SignalA clear majority of the world's population lives in countries that are not democracies
- IssueA new phase of globalisation that also produces unexpected instability1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendAI is simultaneously the source of new security risk and the means of defending against it3 signals
- TrendAI reclassified from frontier technology to systemic force0 signals
- IssueAI spreading into grids, water and transport turns cyber compromise into cascading physical failure2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueAutomotive resilience is framed as diversified suppliers, codesigned chips and localized manufacturing1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalCanada's skilled immigration policy is named beside Estonia, Singapore and other talent programmes
- SignalChina Launches First National Security Investigation in Foreign Trade, Targeting Imported Office Equipment
- SignalChina's total-economy wealth nearly equals that of the US once all sectors are counted
- IssueConnected robot fleets open attack surfaces where a breach becomes a physical hazard1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueCourts may be unable to constrain AI even where the public demands it1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendCross-border M&A binds the six to Asia's advanced economies and the United States4 signals
- TrendCross-border positions widen and face political limits2 signals
- SignalCultural resistance to geopolitical adaptation tracks organizational energy levels
- IssueData regulation and geopolitical risk now shape where shared services can operate1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendDemocracy weakens and authoritarianism gains ground2 signals
- SignalDraghi frames European productivity as a forced choice between three goals
- SignalDrone and robot hiveminds: patenting swarm intelligence at the EPO
- SignalEU agrees 21st Russia sanctions package; OFAC issues Russia, Cuba and counter-narcotics designations
- SignalEarly-stage deal share to Chinese and Indian space startups more than doubled in a year
- SignalEthiopia inaugurates the Grand Renaissance Dam without a Nile agreement
- SignalEuropean Commission Proposes Plan to Reduce Dependence on Foreign Technology / Military AI governance under strain: the US-China dialogue
- SignalExecutive Order 14409: Promoting Advanced Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Security
- IssueExponential threat growth is asserted without any quantity attached1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalFive named mineral holders have explored OPEC style supply management
- IssueFleet orchestration is expected to move from warehouses into factories and defence1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalForced displacement at 123 million, nearly double a decade ago
- SignalGartner projects one in four job seekers could be artificial by 2028
- SignalGlobal Food Crisis 2026: 318M in Hunger Crisis; USAID Shuttered
- IssueGlobal South male health crises are structurally absent from mainstream frameworks2 trends · 0 signals
- TrendGlobal resource rush8 signals
- IssueGlobal supply models are declared unable to guarantee resilience, cost stability or competitiveness1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalGoverning Luminaries: The Global Cyber War Hits Home
- TrendGovernment debt keeps expanding as interest rates approach or exceed growth rates3 signals
- SignalGulf sovereign wealth funds are cited with Abu Dhabi's Falcon 40B as the named case
- SignalHalf worry about regional compute dependence, and they see less opportunity in volatility
- SignalHigh performers both collaborate more and scrutinize partners more
- SignalHostile States Behind 75% of Cyber Attacks on UK Infrastructure - NCSC CEO
- IssueHow to hold technology firms accountable and fit them into global governance is unsettled1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalIPCC Chair Keynote at London Climate Week 2026 — U.S. Paris Withdrawal Takes Effect
- SignalIndia suspends the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty
- SignalInflows to China fell $295.2 billion, a 64.1% decline between the two four-year periods
- SignalInternational organizations invite firms to give policy advice and states appoint tech ambassadors
- SignalJapan and Germany reached net lending near 90% of GDP, the US net borrowing near 90%
- IssueKey point: security becomes a variable at every level of technology1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueKey point: space becomes the arena for defence and security technology1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalLatin American Crime Groups Adopt Drones, AI Scams, and Cyber Intrusions
- SignalMGI argues rates are structurally higher, pushing debt ratios up absent policy change
- TrendMacrotrend 5: semiconductors become a strategic asset and nations build end-to-end ecosystems5 signals
- TrendMajor economies enter 2026 on divergent balance sheet pathways5 signals
- TrendMale-predominant crises in the Global South do not fit Western men's health frameworks3 signals
- TrendMass incarceration becomes a primary engine of global health inequality for men2 signals
- IssueMaterial demand may feed local conflict where mining meets farming and cities1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalMcKinsey Global Institute: US-China Decoupling Cut 2025 Global Trade Growth by 10%
- IssueMega-prisons and detention expansion create an invisible male humanitarian crisis1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalMoody's warns AI-native malware to dominate 2026; Leonidas defeats fiber-optic drones
- SignalMore than a third of US equity liabilities are owed abroad
- SignalNamed defence AI firms grow field presence to compete for government contracts
- SignalNearly half of the chip vendor's partnerships are with companies outside the United States
- IssueNew free trade zones and rising protectionism at the same time1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalOne underwater data centre programme was shut down while another scaled commercially
- SignalOnly 25% of leaders prioritize digital security despite rising cyber-fragility
- IssueOrbital governance built for a world that no longer exists1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueOrganizational rigidity, not external shocks, limits geopolitical response speed1 trends · 4 signals
- SignalOver 80% of Pakistani agriculture depends on Indian-controlled headwaters
- SignalPerceived risks spread from economic uncertainty at 26% to geopolitics and supply chains at 21%
- SignalProcess redesign (34%) and talent strategy (32%) are the main geopolitical reorganization levers
- SignalProjected hiring at defence AI companies runs about twice the AI average
- SignalPwC cited: China already largest in PPP terms and largest at market rates before 2030
- SignalQuantum Systems raises $1.2B Series D for drone manufacturing (Germany)
- SignalQuantum decryption is already a stated concern of technology executives
- TrendRace for scarce resources0 signals
- SignalReflective leaders perceive more external pressure than their peers
- IssueRegional finance runs through Singapore, which blurs where capital originates1 trends · 3 signals
- SignalReport expects documented vulnerabilities to exceed one million a year by 2030
- SignalReport names Japan, South Korea and China as rapidly ageing while Africa's young cohort comes of age
- SignalReport states authoritarian regimes now outnumber democracies worldwide
- IssueResilience relocated from what you own to what you can decide independently1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalSahel displacement stays regional: Mali and Burkina Faso under 2% of EU asylum claims
- SignalSamsung lifted foundry sales after widening its supplier base beyond Asia
- IssueSeabed mining governance splits between pause and unilateral permitting1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalSeafloor cables carry over 95% of international internet traffic and are exposed to sabotage
- SignalSemiconductor Supply Chain Fragmentation: TSMC, Nexperia Split, Tungsten Bottleneck
- SignalSemiconductors, biotech, clean energy and pharmaceuticals are named as strategic manufacturing
- IssueSilicon sovereignty is broken into six levers including critical minerals and energy1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalSix Asian states listed as having put satellites in orbit
- SignalSovereign infrastructure ecosystems are dated to become foundational after 2030
- SignalSovereignty gaps are dated to become visible between 2025 and 2027
- TrendStory 4: efficiency is redefined around reliability and political alignment4 signals
- SignalStrategic Capital Signs $820M Loan for Drone Expansion
- SignalStudy estimates LLMs' geopolitical leanings from historical UN General Assembly voting patterns
- SignalSubmarine cables, cloud data centres and low orbit satellites are named as privately held
- SignalTSMC posts record Q1 2026; Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens chip supply chain
- TrendTechnological Vulnerabilities3 signals
- SignalThe 2025 global picture was driven by the United States and China
- SignalThe Escalating Cyber Risk Landscape / CISA at 40%
- SignalThe IMF and the G7 have put global imbalances back on their agenda
- SignalThe United States classified as a declining democracy
- SignalThe United States leads orbital launches in 2025, with Asia second
- TrendThe balance sheet detaches further from the real economy, driven by the US and China4 signals
- IssueThe binding constraint in defence AI moves from innovation to delivery1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalThe gap between growth and interest rates approached zero and may have flipped in the US in 2025
- IssueThe next generation of US space startups is concentrated in one company's alumni network1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendThe water weapon8 signals
- SignalThree fifths of 310 international river basins have no dispute framework
- SignalTrade and policy uncertainty indices at post-2020 highs
- IssueTreating cyberspace as a commons rather than as territory1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendTrend 11: falling launch costs and private scale reshape space markets4 signals
- TrendTrend 7: defence moves from detecting attacks to preventing them2 signals
- SignalTwo new coalitions form around global governance and Charter renewal
- SignalUN Climate Chief: "Faster energy transitions are core to national security"
- SignalUS Treasury sanctions multinational network supporting Iran's Mahan Air and IRGC
- SignalUS Water System Cyberattacks Spread to Georgia and Michigan, Now Affecting a Dozen States
- SignalUS institutions produced 61 notable AI models in 2023 against the EU's 21 and China's 15
- TrendUncertainty will be your greatest asset - if you embrace it9 signals
- SignalViolence costs $20 trillion a year with high claimed returns to prevention
- SignalWEF Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026: 91% of large enterprises revised cyber strategy on geopolitical volatility
- IssueWatch point: global governance must absorb networked states and states without territory1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: infrastructure owners withhold essential services as bargaining leverage1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: states investing in diversity and welfare cultivate talent and gain influence1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: swings in resource value, including from manipulation, move power unpredictably1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: trade shifts stabilize or destabilize geopolitics depending on connectedness1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalWater-Related Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa Surge 36% — 76 Cases in 2024
- Signaltonies opened a Vietnam plant one day before US tariffs on Chinese goods