P1 Geopolitics & Security
by main topic: 332
Issues 89
Macroeconomy & Finance 10
- IssueCoordinated Korea-Japan engagement in a future North Korean opening0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueExpansion of transnational crime0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKorea needs a new composite grand strategy as the framework behind its rise weakens1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueMeeting NATO's 5 percent Hague pledge and its fiscal and growth trade-offs1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueMiddle East scenarios: early de-escalation or a prolonged stalemate and their effects on Korean growth and inflation0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRegional conflicts, a Chinese slowdown and climate shocks as further downside risks0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRisk chaining: cascading compound risks0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueSovereignty becomes a selling point and capital is expected to follow national champions1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueState threats the most connected risk, with 11 links to acute risks1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueUnregulated cryptoassets fuelling organised crime and straining services1 trends · 0 signals
Industry & Supply Chains 5
- IssueBalancing an EU defence-industrial preference with NATO partnership and US role-sharing1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueDefence AI companies are expected to move into space systems next1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueDefence reform and game-changing future warfare capabilities for the Northeast Asian security environment1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueMiddle East war raises costs and squeezes margins across Korea's key industries in the second half1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTaiwan Strait contingency questions and Korea's stance1 trends · 1 signals
Trade & Economic Security 23
0-3 years 4
- IssueInfrastructure is positioned as the backbone of both innovation and national sovereignty1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueKorea as a stable anchor linking fragmented blocs through pragmatic idealism2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKorea must secure chokepoint technologies by riding the hegemon's security strategy1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueManaging Korea-Russia ties under sanctions through dialogue channels, safety nets and sanctions-aware planning1 trends · 1 signals
4-10 years 14
- IssueArctic governance fractures as competition replaces cooperation1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueCompute-restriction tactics have stopped working and the report warns of technological brinkmanship1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueEurasian states face a new integration dilemma that forces them to choose sides3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueExpanding the Northern Policy into a broader New Eurasia Strategy1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueExport-led US allies such as Korea, Japan and Germany lose strategic autonomy3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueGeopolitical distance becomes an input to organizational design1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueIntegration dilemmas born of power asymmetry among Russia, China, the EU and smaller Eurasian states2 trends · 2 signals
- IssueKey point: research and technology already inside the geostrategic contest1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKorea-Japan relations enter a new era amid US pressure and deep economic interdependence1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueModernising the ROK-US alliance and pragmatic diplomacy toward the US, China and Japan1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueMultilateralism off the rails1 trends · 6 signals
- IssueSouth China Sea disputes and Chinese structures in the Yellow Sea1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: small and middle powers with room to manoeuvre form more flexible alignments1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWhether Washington can contain China when Soviet-style containment and full decoupling are impractical3 trends · 0 signals
11-30 years 3
- IssueA more competitive geopolitical environment framed around the China challenge1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueMulti-layered and fluid global governance0 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePermanent split of the world order toward 20401 trends · 0 signals
Other 2
- IssueScenario: mandatory domestic supply chains force clouds to split AI workloads by bloc1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueScenarios for the complex geopolitical order of technology, economy and security0 trends · 0 signals
Climate Change & Adaptation 5
- IssueA new global security environment shaped by climate, demography, technology rivalry and nuclear risk1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGreen digital ODA and linking development cooperation with Korean culture for the Global South1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRisk of unilateral solar geoengineering in a governance vacuum1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueUsing Korea's national brand and leadership in technology, climate, culture and training to position itself in Eurasia1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWidening Korea's circle of friendly states beyond value-sharing partners0 trends · 0 signals
Resources, Food & Water 4
- IssueA leadership vacuum over global public goods0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueCritical minerals competition heightening geopolitical tension1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueDeciding the future of the Korea-Japan continental shelf joint development zone0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueFour drivers of geopolitical tension as policy levers0 trends · 1 signals
Ecosystems & Biodiversity 1
- IssueGovernment: sequencing frontier access faster than frameworks adapt1 trends · 0 signals
Democracy & Governance 16
0-3 years 5
- IssueGeopolitical tensions, rule of law collapse and war at the core of the risk network0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueLarge-scale war seen as imminent and least prepared for1 trends · 2 signals
- IssuePolitical risks as the strongest global vulnerability1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePursuing international science cooperation and security at the same time1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueTransactional US alliance demands and USFK strategic flexibility1 trends · 0 signals
4-10 years 6
- IssueBalancing the Korea-US alliance with Korean-style strategic autonomy1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueCountering the consolidation of an authoritarian North Korea-China-Russia bloc in Eurasia1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueDenuclearisation uncertainty and preventing a new Cold War bloc in Northeast Asia1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePolicy area 1: international relations must absorb new actors, new arenas and new entities4 trends · 2 signals
- IssueScenario: backcast from large-scale war in 20300 trends · 0 signals
- IssueThe plan shifts North Korea policy toward reconciliation and cooperation to build sustainable peaceful coexistence0 trends · 1 signals
11-30 years 4
- Issue2050 regional order scenario 3: A pluralistic regional order led by middle powers1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueAbsence of a strong multilateral security institution in East Asia2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueKey point: new geostrategic policies and a multipolar world1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKorea and Japan as co-responsible security partners in a regional multilateral order2 trends · 2 signals
Other 1
- IssueWatch point: a firm or its owner takes unilateral diplomatic or military action1 trends · 0 signals
Tech·Digital Policy 3
- IssueAI arms race obstructing global consensus on misuse1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueList-based US military-security restrictions on China remain a lasting issue1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueUnregulated online spaces widening access to radicalising material1 trends · 0 signals
Demographics & Migration 2
- IssueConflict cascades1 trends · 6 signals
- IssueShrinking military manpower and the restructuring of national defence0 trends · 1 signals
Welfare & Health 1
- IssueTerrorism, organised crime and vulnerable persons most exposed to other risks3 trends · 0 signals
AI & Computing 4
- IssueAI lowering barriers to more sophisticated terrorist methods1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueAutonomous cyber warfare would remove humans from both attack and defence1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRegional security tensions and military and hybrid conflict0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueState-linked actors using AI for surveillance and disinformation1 trends · 0 signals
Bio & Health Tech 1
- IssueBiological data arms races and state data hacks1 trends · 0 signals
Energy & Climate Tech 1
- IssueRe-establishing inter-Korean relations and institutionalising peaceful coexistence0 trends · 1 signals
Space & Mobility 1
- IssueSatellites are treated as exploitable computers and quantum threatens current encryption1 trends · 0 signals
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 2
- IssuePolicy area 2: security gains from connection are inseparable from new exposure2 trends · 2 signals
- IssueWidening gap between threat and resilience2 trends · 1 signals
Religion & Identity 1
- IssueUnresolved history disputes constrain a future-oriented Korea-Japan relationship0 trends · 0 signals
Other 9
- Issue2050 regional order scenario 1: Return to great-power politics1 trends · 0 signals
- Issue2050 regional order scenario 2: Confrontational coexistence between US and Chinese camps1 trends · 0 signals
- Issue2050 regional order scenario 5: A liberal international order renewed in modified form0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueA Yalta 2.0 bargain: US-Russia normalization and mutual recognition of spheres in Eurasia2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueA flexible two-track Eurasia strategy that separates China and Russia policy from regional cooperation0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueAn unpredictable United States as security guarantor1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueChinese A2/AD strategy and possible status quo changes across East Asian flashpoints1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueGreat-power nuclear competition as the defining security challenge for the next generation1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueThe plan pairs engagement with a strong security posture based on elite forces and alliance-based deterrence0 trends · 1 signals
Trends 59
Macroeconomy & Finance 7
- TrendEurope takes on greater defence responsibility within NATO5 signals
- TrendFour pillars of the liberal international order come under simultaneous pressure3 signals
- TrendGrowing influence of the Gulf states0 signals
- TrendMegatrend 7: shift of power towards the East and the South8 signals
- TrendSerious and organised crime growing and exploiting technology7 signals
- TrendTrend N: Fracturing of global governance into rival blocs1 signals
- TrendUS security strategy shifts from unipolar hegemony toward selective engagement4 signals
Industry & Supply Chains 5
- TrendGeopolitics driver: three variant paths from a second globalisation to a wild era0 signals
- TrendResource competition opening routes for organised crime0 signals
- TrendShift 4: geopolitical fragmentation reshapes value chains and organizational design17 signals
- TrendTrend 12: defence AI companies shift from research to mass production4 signals
- TrendTrend O: Complex geopolitics of technology, economy and security6 signals
Trade & Economic Security 25
4-10 years 23
- TrendChina pursues a China-oriented international order through BRICS ties and non-binding partnerships1 signals
- TrendChina-Russia partnership deepens toward an entente that knits Eurasia together2 signals
- TrendCompeting alliance networks in the Indo-Pacific as US coordination loosens0 signals
- TrendCompound economic and new security threats weaken multilateralism and global governance3 signals
- TrendErosion of the external pillars behind Europe's post-Cold War growth3 signals
- TrendEurasian regionalism underpinned post-Soviet stability and growth2 signals
- TrendFrom liberalisation to scarcity, rivalry and defending own values0 signals
- TrendGeopolitical instability raising the threat of violence0 signals
- TrendGeotechnomics: geopolitics, technology and economics converge into one change dynamic4 signals
- TrendGlobal South moving to flexible multipolar partnerships3 signals
- TrendGlobal science and technology governance fragments into a regime complex of rival technology blocs3 signals
- TrendGreat-power rivalry and protectionism push the world toward a multipolar, bloc-based order16 signals
- TrendKorea-Russia relations stall under prolonged sanctions and structural change0 signals
- TrendMore and longer armed conflicts driven by economic interests1 signals
- TrendSecuritisation of science and technology slows international research collaboration2 signals
- TrendStory 3: smaller states holding strategic resources gain outsized influence7 signals
- TrendStructural reordering of the international order and the return of great-power politics3 signals
- TrendThe post-Cold War order enters a structural transition with 2025 as the turning point0 signals
- TrendThe rules-based international order is eroding1 signals
- TrendUS and European influence in Eurasia recedes behind that of Russia and China4 signals
- TrendUS national security strategy fuses tariffs, export controls, R&D and AI around advanced technology6 signals
- TrendUS-China rivalry hardens into a prolonged structural clash of national strategies4 signals
- TrendWashington pursues a composite strategy of burden sharing and restored great-power politics5 signals
11-30 years 2
Climate Change & Adaptation 3
- TrendGovernments framing ecological breakdown as a security risk1 signals
- TrendSupply shocks pushing drug markets towards synthetics0 signals
- TrendTrend C: Risks becoming routine, diversified and global2 signals
Resources, Food & Water 1
Democracy & Governance 4
- TrendExtreme uncertainty becomes the everyday condition for national strategy0 signals
- TrendFrom cooperation to competition: a fragmenting world order1 signals
- TrendPolitical risks moving to the centre of global risk perceptions2 signals
- TrendStory 1: technology companies and their owners contest the primacy of states4 signals
Tech·Digital Policy 1
Demographics & Migration 1
- TrendConflicts proliferating and intensifying7 signals
Welfare & Health 1
- TrendGreat power tensions destabilising aid-dependent regions1 signals
Education & Generations 1
AI & Computing 4
- TrendEmerging technologies reshape the military balance and the character of warfare7 signals
- TrendMalicious actors combining AI and engineering biology for bioweapons0 signals
- TrendTerrorism threat to the UK evolving and exploiting technology4 signals
- TrendThe drone age: violence gets cheap enough for everyone7 signals
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 2
Media & Information Ecosystem 2
- TrendHybrid threats as a structural feature1 signals
- TrendShift towards self-initiated terrorists outside organised networks0 signals
Other 2
Signals 184
Macroeconomy & Finance 18
0-3 years 15
- Signal17% have no method to assess geopolitical impact and only 26% plan scenarios quarterly
- Signal23 NATO allies expected to meet 2% of GDP on defence in 2024
- Signal81% report geopolitical and economic threats to 2025 technology investment
- SignalIndividuals linked to Putin seen as highest sanctions evasion risk
- SignalIran sells oil at 20% premium as US ends blockade threat on Strait of Hormuz
- SignalMilitary spending up 9.4% in a year, 2.5% of global GDP
- SignalNATO members agree to lift defence spending toward five percent of GDP by 2035
- SignalOECD average defence R&D budgets rose 16.1 percent in 2023 as dual-use collaboration grows
- SignalOil Rallies as Iran Adopts Offensive Stance Over Hormuz
- SignalOnly three European allies already meet NATO's 3.5 percent core defence benchmark
- SignalReArm Europe tools: a defence escape clause and 150 billion euros of SAFE loans
- SignalReport states 36 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS
- SignalUK defence spending to reach 2.5% of GDP from April 2027
- SignalUS pressure for 5 percent defence spending and doubts over its commitment to Europe
- SignalUkraine Strikes Grain Terminals at Russia's Novorossiysk Port, Killing Three
4-10 years 2
11-30 years 1
Industry & Supply Chains 20
0-3 years 20
- Signal72% of leaders say geopolitical uncertainty is affecting their organizations
- SignalAmong the less affected, a third credit a diversified footprint
- SignalChina sustains a rapid military buildup aimed at great-power status by 2049
- SignalDARPA launches Next Generation Hypersonic Cruise Missile program with high-rate production requirements
- SignalEuropean Commission Approves €6.1 Billion Defense Package for Ukraine
- SignalEvery hyperscale data centre in Denmark is foreign-owned, prompting a domestic build
- SignalGeopolitics Reshaping Semiconductor Supply Chain Risk in 2026 / US-China Chip War
- SignalIsrael and Honduras deepen defense ties with new memorandum of understanding
- SignalLeaders in Saudi Arabia and Japan report the least geopolitical impact
- SignalOrganizational rigidity (38%) is the top barrier to managing global fragility
- SignalOrganizations with wider geographic spread report higher geopolitical exposure
- SignalPandemic, war and chip-shortage shocks cascaded across education, poverty, energy, food and industry
- SignalPentagon "AI-First" Military — $54.6B DAWG Request, Anthropic "Supply Chain Risk" Designation
- SignalPentagon's Strategic Capabilities Office discloses next-generation hypersonic weapons family
- SignalReArm Europe programme for an integrated European defence industry
- SignalTSMC Semiconductor Supply Chain Under Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk
- SignalThe US CHIPS and Science Act is cited at roughly $52.7bn for manufacturing and research
- SignalUkraine launches one of its largest drone attacks on Moscow Oblast, damaging Wildberries warehouse
- SignalUkraine produces over 4.5 million drones in 2025 as UAVs drive most casualties
- SignalUkrainian Drone Strikes Halt Over 90% of Russia's Black Sea Grain Export Capacity
Labor & Future of Work 1
Trade & Economic Security 38
0-3 years 36
- SignalAtlantic Council: Eight ways AI will shape geopolitics in 2026; US AI Action Plan
- SignalBRICS Summit 2026: 18th Summit Adopts New Delhi Declaration
- SignalC5+1 dialogues with Central Asia multiply and move to summit level, while Korea's summit slips
- SignalCanada's Carney pursues 'unique alliance' with EU amid US trade war
- SignalChina has launched three global initiatives since 2021 to court the Global South
- SignalChina's 2025 white papers draw red lines and frame the conflict as a set of wars
- SignalEU sanctions seven persons, three entities over Southeast Asia scam centre human rights abuses
- SignalIAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over safeguards breach
- SignalJapan, the EU and Taiwan adopt distinct strategies toward the US-China rivalry
- SignalNew administrations in the US and Korea reshape the 2025 policy environment
- SignalSoutheast Asia records over 230 tons of methamphetamine seized in 2024
- SignalSurvey of 264 Korean experts expects a prolonged rivalry and less dependence on both powers
- SignalTaiwan Investigates 17 Chinese Tech Companies Over Illegal Recruitment of High-Tech Talent
- SignalThe EU raises private space investment to reduce reliance on US capability
- SignalThe European Chips Act is cited as the EU's parallel industrial policy instrument
- SignalThe Shanghai Cooperation Organisation grows from the Shanghai Five to ten full members
- SignalThe leading AI chip vendor reports over 20 billion dollars of sovereign AI revenue in 2025
- SignalThe report is the stated follow-up to the May 2023 Geotechnomics foresight brief
- SignalThirty-five years of Northern Policy lifted Korea's standing and opened northern markets
- SignalTrump presses allies on defense costs and NATO, courts Russia's G7 return and sidelines the WTO
- SignalTurkey and South Africa are named as rising while Australia and New Zealand are said to be losing ground
- SignalU.S. to Tell Allies They Must Pick Sides in AI Race With China: Reuters
- SignalUAE Halts All Trade and Financial Transactions with Iran Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions
- SignalUK announces new Russia sanctions package targeting military supply chain
- SignalUS 2025 security moves: AI Action Plan, Department of War rename and FY2027 R&D priorities
- SignalUS Presses NATO Allies on Ideological Loyalty Ahead of Troop Cuts
- SignalUS Senate Passes Sweeping Russia Sanctions Bill Named for Late Sen. Lindsey Graham
- SignalUS Treasury Launches 'Operation Economic Outcast' Sanctions Campaign Against Iran
- SignalUS blocks Iran's nuclear chief from IAEA General Conference in Vienna
- SignalUS legislation and arms ties bolster Taiwan's standing amid Chinese protests
- SignalUS strategy documents designate China a strategic adversary and geopolitical rival
- SignalUS widens Iran sanctions; Iran vows retaliation as diplomacy stalls
- SignalUS–Iran conflict escalates: naval blockade reinstated, new sanctions, ICC targeted
- SignalUkraine's Zelenskyy Signs Decree Sanctioning 23 Companies, 20 Individuals Supporting Russia's Defense Industry
- SignalWhite House Declares National Emergency to Secure US Bulk-Power System, Addresses Drone Threats
- SignalXinhua: APEC Meetings in Chengdu Promoted AI Development and Cooperation
Climate Change & Adaptation 4
- Signal2023 sulphur dioxide release in Baja California by a US firm prompted a Mexican ban
- Signal2025 and 2026 government assessments treat nature loss as a security risk
- SignalTrump 2.0 techno-nationalist measures pull US support from global public-good science
- SignalUS exits from Paris (twice) and from the UNFCCC in early 2026
Resources, Food & Water 2
Ecosystems & Biodiversity 1
Democracy & Governance 10
- Signal78 countries fight beyond their borders as peace agreements become rare
- SignalConcern grows over a Belarus-Russia-Iran-North Korea-China alignment
- SignalCooperation continues overall but peace and security cooperation keeps falling
- SignalICC keeps Duterte detained ahead of November war-on-drugs trial
- SignalInter-Korean relations froze after the Audacious Initiative met provocations and cut channels
- SignalKorea joins Horizon Europe Pillar 2 and a 2025 bill proposes cooperation and research-security committees
- SignalKurdish-led SDF Dissolves After Merging With Syrian National Army
- SignalPrivate military actors taking strategic roles
- SignalRights groups sue Trump administration over sanctions targeting International Criminal Court
- SignalThirty-four countries exert substantial influence abroad, up from six
Tech·Digital Policy 6
- Signal29 Global South nations sign founding agreement for World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO)
- SignalMilitary AI governance under strain: the US–China dialogue
- SignalNational Security Act 2023 targets modern state threats
- SignalPentagon Confirms It Has Fully Stopped Using Anthropic's Claude
- SignalSovereignty rules are pushing compute repatriation, most visibly outside the United States
- SignalUN Autonomous Weapons Treaty Deadline 2026 — 164 States Support, CCW GGE Mandate Concludes
Demographics & Migration 3
Welfare & Health 4
- SignalCivilians the majority of deaths in 14 conflicts; one in six people exposed
- SignalModern slavery referrals reach 4,758 in Q3 2024
- SignalOver 1.5 billion pounds a year for UK biological security
- SignalUN records 350 male victims among 484 documented conflict-related sexual violence cases in Ukraine
Education & Generations 1
AI & Computing 9
- SignalAI-generated celebrity videos used to lure scam investors
- SignalAustralia Launches 2026 Defence Innovation, Science and Technology Strategy
- SignalDARPA AI Forge — Accelerating AI Breakthroughs for National Security
- SignalElbit Systems Unveils 'FUSE' AI-Based Autonomous Combat System
- SignalJapan's 2026 Defense White Paper Warns of New Ways of Warfare Driven by Drones and AI
- SignalNamed firms supported Ukraine after the 2022 invasion on their own initiative
- SignalPentagon requests $54.6B for Defense Autonomous Warfare Group; Joint Chiefs: autonomous weapons "key and essential"
- SignalScience-diplomacy frameworks were updated in 2025 to reflect research security
- SignalarXiv Preprint Examines AI Risk in Non-Great-Power Conflict
Space & Mobility 7
- SignalAt least 20 countries hold military satellites with attribution difficult
- SignalDARPA Seeks Next-Generation Hypersonic Cruise Missile for Affordable Mass Production
- SignalDrone incidents rise from 6,000 to 51,000 between 2020 and 2024
- SignalNon-state drone use spreading across Latin America and Yemen
- SignalNon-state groups conducting drone attacks rise from 6 to 91
- SignalTaiwan foreign ministry signs UAV cooperation MOU with European security center
- SignalUkrainian Naval Drones Sink Rosatom-Owned Cargo Ship Yanina in Black Sea
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 5
- SignalCSIS report examines organising and sustaining a dedicated US cyber force
- SignalPentagon Cyber Defense Command Drafting Plan to Defend Critical Infrastructure
- SignalPentagon's Defense Cyber Defense Command Drafting Critical Infrastructure Protection Framework
- SignalRussian sabotage actions nearly quadrupled between 2023 and 2024
- SignalUpdated SOC Strategy of December 2023 targets criminal use of technology
Religion & Identity 3
Other 52
0-3 years 50
- Signal"Europeanisation of NATO" (NATO 3.0) after Ankara Summit; US troop drawdown from Germany
- Signal13th Beijing Xiangshan Forum opens as China-US military dialogue continues to resume
- Signal2026 Iran War — US-Israel Strike Iranian Nuclear Facilities, Ceasefire Fragile
- Signal43 late-stage attack plots disrupted since March 2017
- Signal6,268 firearms offences in England and Wales, up 6%
- SignalAlbania becomes 73rd country to sign the Artemis Accords
- SignalAverage terrorism impact rose in three of nine world regions over a decade
- SignalBiden-era minilateral security networks face uncertainty under Trump's transactional approach
- SignalBladed or blunt weapons used in almost 80% of UK attacks since 2018
- SignalCentral Asian States Issue Joint Statement on 20th Anniversary of CANWFZ Treaty
- SignalCovenant Emerges from Stealth and Unveils Anthem, a Deep-Strike Precision Missile
- SignalDARPA Issues Request for Information for Next-Generation Hypersonic Cruise Missile
- SignalEU Statement on Agenda Item 6: Application of Safeguards in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea
- SignalExclusive-EU needs 'decisive change' in 'scale and pace' of defence investment, report says
- SignalFifty-nine active state-based conflicts, the most since 1945
- SignalFormer Canadian defence chief says international order is eroding and Canada's readiness is critically short
- SignalFour declared nuclear states placed in Asia
- SignalFrance Sending Forces To Help Defend Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Oil Facilities
- SignalInter-Korean relations cut off for three years amid North Korean nuclear advances and closer North Korea and Russia ties
- SignalIran says NPT withdrawal and nuclear doctrine revision 'easily achievable'
- SignalIran's FM Araghchi visits China, to meet Wang Yi ahead of Xi's US trip
- SignalKuwait ratifies comprehensive defense cooperation agreement with Pakistan amid Gulf tensions
- SignalMost Eurasian states abstained or stayed away from the March 2022 UN vote condemning Russia
- SignalMyanmar re-emerges as arena of China-India geopolitical competition amid dueling state visits
- SignalNATO jets shoot down Russian-origin drone over Lithuania, first such incident
- SignalNine UK terrorist attacks 2018-2023 killed six and injured 20
- SignalNo US president has visited any Central Asian state in 35 years
- SignalNorth Korea advances nuclear and missile capabilities and a preemptive-use doctrine
- SignalNorth Korea and Russia form an alliance as North Korean troops deploy to the Ukraine war
- SignalPentagon interim defense guidance reportedly concentrates on the China threat
- SignalROK-US global comprehensive strategic alliance and regularised trilateral security cooperation with Japan
- SignalReport's military rankings for China, India and Pakistan
- SignalRevised US guidance signals heavier regional burdens for Korea and Taiwan and a changing USFK role
- SignalSaudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan sign Mecca Joint Defence Agreement
- SignalSolomon Islands Signs US Shiprider Security Deal, Reaffirms Neutrality Amid China Ties
- SignalThink tank analyzes Iranian reactions to Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan 'Mecca Agreement'
- SignalTrump reduces military exercises with South Korea, citing good ties with Kim Jong Un
- SignalTrump signs security agreement with Greenland and Denmark
- SignalUS and Iran Reach Tentative 60-Day Ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding
- SignalUS pulls last aircraft carrier in Asia as Trump focuses on Iran and the Western Hemisphere
- SignalUS threatens Iranian infrastructure over Strait of Hormuz attacks; Ukraine to export drones to US
- SignalUS withdrew forces from Nigeria after joint operation killed ISIS global deputy leader
- SignalUS working on 'deconfliction mechanism' between Turkey, Syria and Israel, says Barrack
- SignalUkraine-Russia: Russian missile/drone strikes kill 17 in Kyiv; possible first Ukrainian ballistic missile combat use
- SignalWar and geopolitical tensions in the top five in six of seven regions
- SignalWar jumps sixteen places in imminence; 36% expect it within a year
- SignalWar the only risk in the top six on all four dimensions
- SignalWars in Georgia and Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea call Russia's security umbrella into question
- SignalWar–geopolitical tension the strongest of 705 risk links
- SignalWeapons of mass destruction enter three regional top-ten lists
Objects with this as a secondary topic 334
Macroeconomy & Finance 36
0-3 years 25
- IssueA US equity reset could be triggered by AI disappointment or geopolitical disruption1 trends · 4 signals
- IssueChina may use yuan depreciation and inducements to split the US alliance network2 trends · 0 signals
- SignalChina's total-economy wealth nearly equals that of the US once all sectors are counted
- SignalDraghi frames European productivity as a forced choice between three goals
- SignalFraud is the most common UK crime at 3.9 million offences
- TrendGovernment debt keeps expanding as interest rates approach or exceed growth rates4 signals
- TrendGrowth paths split among advanced and emerging economies0 signals
- SignalGulf sovereign wealth funds are cited with Abu Dhabi's Falcon 40B as the named case
- SignalHundreds of billions of pounds likely laundered through the UK yearly
- SignalInflows to China fell $295.2 billion, a 64.1% decline between the two four-year periods
- TrendMajor economies enter 2026 on divergent balance sheet pathways5 signals
- SignalMore than a third of US equity liabilities are owed abroad
- SignalNickel price jump of 270% led the LME to suspend trading
- SignalPerceived risks spread from economic uncertainty at 26% to geopolitics and supply chains at 21%
- IssueRisk: a prolonged Middle East conflict locks in high energy prices and inflation0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRisks to Korea's growth path from swings in AI investment, Middle East tensions and US trade pressure1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueRisks to Korea's inflation path from oil prices, exchange rates and demand-side pressure1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRisks to world growth from Middle East talks, AI profitability concerns and rising bond yields1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalSerious and organised crime estimated to cost the UK 47 billion pounds a year
- IssueSwing factors for Korea's 2026 outlook: war, energy inflation, the AI cycle and trade uncertainty1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalThe 2025 global picture was driven by the United States and China
- SignalThe gap between growth and interest rates approached zero and may have flipped in the US in 2025
- SignalUS officials question the dollar's reserve role and float a Mar-a-Lago accord
- SignalViolence costs $20 trillion a year with high claimed returns to prevention
- TrendWorld economy stays on a sub-par growth path under overlapping shocks0 signals
4-10 years 9
- TrendDoubts over dollar hegemony and a gradually rising global role for the renminbi3 signals
- IssueDraghi's warning of an existential competitiveness challenge and three priority tasks3 trends · 3 signals
- TrendFraud and illicit finance threat growing with AI-enabled scams5 signals
- SignalKEEI outlook assumes Korean GDP growth of 2.1 percent a year and oil near 80 dollars in 2026 falling to the low 60s
- SignalMGI argues rates are structurally higher, pushing debt ratios up absent policy change
- SignalPwC cited: China already largest in PPP terms and largest at market rates before 2030
- IssueRegional finance runs through Singapore, which blurs where capital originates1 trends · 3 signals
- TrendThe balance sheet detaches further from the real economy, driven by the US and China4 signals
- SignalUS national debt reaches about 122 percent of GDP with steeper projections ahead
11-30 years 1
Other 1
- IssueA Catalyst for Common Good1 trends · 0 signals
Industry & Supply Chains 29
0-3 years 20
- Signal74% expect volatility to create new business opportunities
- TrendGlobal demand for Korea's key industries is capped by war, tariffs and high oil despite AI and emerging markets0 signals
- SignalHigh performers both collaborate more and scrutinize partners more
- SignalHow Ukraine strikes on Russian warehouses became a problem in Kyrgyzstan
- IssueInnovation leaders frame science and technology as Korea's growth engine and survival strategy0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalNamed defence AI firms grow field presence to compete for government contracts
- SignalNearly half of the chip vendor's partnerships are with companies outside the United States
- IssueOpportunities and risks for Korean shipbuilding amid US-China maritime rivalry2 trends · 2 signals
- SignalProcess redesign (34%) and talent strategy (32%) are the main geopolitical reorganization levers
- SignalQuantum Systems raises $1.2B Series D for drone manufacturing (Germany)
- IssueResilience relocated from what you own to what you can decide independently1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalSamsung lifted foundry sales after widening its supplier base beyond Asia
- SignalSemiconductor Supply Chain Fragmentation: TSMC, Nexperia Split, Tungsten Bottleneck
- SignalSemiconductors, biotech, clean energy and pharmaceuticals are named as strategic manufacturing
- SignalStrategic Capital Signs $820M Loan for Drone Expansion
- SignalTSMC posts record Q1 2026; Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens chip supply chain
- SignalTSMC, Rapidus and Airbus as models of state-led or public-private strategic firms
- IssueThe binding constraint in defence AI moves from innovation to delivery1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendUncertainty will be your greatest asset - if you embrace it9 signals
- Signaltonies opened a Vietnam plant one day before US tariffs on Chinese goods
4-10 years 9
- IssueFleet orchestration is expected to move from warehouses into factories and defence1 trends · 2 signals
- TrendGlobal supply chains strained and trade relations fragmenting5 signals
- IssueMounting an all-out response to China's rapid technological rise and securing defence-linked manufacturing0 trends · 3 signals
- IssuePreparing Korea-Russia Arctic route cooperation in phases under sanctions1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueSector-specific Korea-EU cooperation in batteries, semiconductors, defence and critical minerals1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendStory 4: efficiency is redefined around reliability and political alignment7 signals
- IssueStrategy 3: pool national capacity from technology to industry for technology-led growth3 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTechnology sovereignty, Chinese catch-up and changing cycles as limits on Korean chip growth1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendUS-China maritime rivalry spreads from navigation rights to shipbuilding and logistics2 signals
Labor & Future of Work 2
Trade & Economic Security 82
0-3 years 49
- SignalAbout 40 percent of EU imports come from a few hard-to-replace suppliers
- SignalApril 2025 US tariffs: universal launch, 90-day pause for partners and over 104 percent on China
- TrendAsymmetric US, EU and China policies expose technology-intensive exporters to layered risks0 signals
- IssueAutomotive resilience is framed as diversified suppliers, codesigned chips and localized manufacturing1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalBank of Korea assumes US tariffs on Korean goods stay high, with new overcapacity and chip duties ahead
- SignalChina Launches First National Security Investigation in Foreign Trade, Targeting Imported Office Equipment
- SignalChina's gallium and germanium export controls and Indonesia's nickel ore export ban
- IssueDeepening geopolitical fragmentation and a new wave of protectionism1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalEU agrees 21st Russia sanctions package; OFAC issues Russia, Cuba and counter-narcotics designations
- SignalEU plans most far-reaching sanctions package against Russia in autumn, foreign chief says
- SignalEU renews Russia sanctions but removes Usmanov at France's request
- TrendEast Asian firms challenging incumbent technology leaders1 signals
- SignalEuropean Commission Proposes Plan to Reduce Dependence on Foreign Technology / Military AI governance under strain: the US-China dialogue
- SignalExport controls widen and critical minerals become strategic assets as supply chains fragment
- SignalFact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Bolsters National Security and Strengthens U.S. Supply Chains by Imposing Tariffs on Drones and Their Parts and Components
- IssueGlobal supply models are declared unable to guarantee resilience, cost stability or competitiveness1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalHalf worry about regional compute dependence, and they see less opportunity in volatility
- SignalIndia, ASEAN and Latin America hedge between the two powers
- SignalJapan and Germany reached net lending near 90% of GDP, the US net borrowing near 90%
- SignalKorea joined the US-led Minerals Security Partnership and IPEF to manage economic security risks
- TrendMacrotrend 5: semiconductors become a strategic asset and nations build end-to-end ecosystems9 signals
- IssueManaging reliance on the United States amid broad tariff uncertainty1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalMcKinsey Global Institute: US-China Decoupling Cut 2025 Global Trade Growth by 10%
- SignalMilestones in EU China policy: the 2019 Strategic Outlook, the frozen CAI and the 2023 Economic Security Strategy
- TrendMineral-rich and processing countries gaining geopolitical leverage1 signals
- SignalModel results: US-China conflict and Russia sanctions are the main short-term drag on northern cooperation gains
- SignalNational Security and Investment Act 2021 upgraded investment screening
- SignalOFAC Issues General License 104B Updating Russia Sanctions on Diamond Imports
- SignalOctober 2025 summit yields one-year mutual suspensions of US and Chinese measures
- TrendProduction bases are diversifying and supply chains are forming regional blocs6 signals
- IssueRisk: US trade policy uncertainty persists after the IEEPA tariff ruling1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalRussia and China link the Eurasian Economic Union with the Belt and Road through 2015 and 2018 accords
- IssueScenario: repeated small deals rather than a US-China grand bargain1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalSovereignty gaps are dated to become visible between 2025 and 2027
- SignalTaiwan indicts Nvidia manager over alleged AI chip smuggling to China
- IssueTariffs as the most negotiable issue in US-China bargaining1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalThe IMF and the G7 have put global imbalances back on their agenda
- SignalTrade and policy uncertainty indices at post-2020 highs
- IssueTrade policy uncertainty and protectionism as the dominant downside risk to global growth0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalTrump 50% tariffs implemented on Canadian goods after trade negotiations suspended
- SignalTrump signs proclamation imposing Section 232 tariffs and minimum import prices on polysilicon
- SignalTrump threatens 50% tariff on Canadian autos and steel; Ontario threatens to cut power, minerals
- SignalU.S. Treasury Designates Russia-Linked Payment Network A7 a Transnational Criminal Organization
- SignalUS Implements 50% Tariffs on Canada; Canada's Retaliatory Tariffs Take Effect September 8
- SignalUS Treasury sanctions Iranian crypto exchange BitBank over IRGC funding, Hormuz payments
- SignalUS Treasury sanctions multinational network supporting Iran's Mahan Air and IRGC
- SignalUS de-risking hardens into 'small yard, high fence' technology controls on China
- IssueUS trade policy, tariffs and the geopoliticisation of markets0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalWestern infrastructure initiatives for Eurasia, from BUILD to PGII, show no visible results
4-10 years 28
- TrendA Turnberry trade system beyond the WTO reshapes Northeast Asian production networks2 signals
- IssueA new phase of globalisation that also produces unexpected instability1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendAdvanced economies compete aggressively for global talent with national recruitment strategies0 signals
- IssueApproaching the EU as a long-term strategic partner rather than a substitute export market1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendChina's economic coercion toolkit matures and its retaliation becomes swifter5 signals
- TrendCompetitiveness shifts from cost efficiency to geopolitical and regulatory agility3 signals
- TrendCross-border M&A binds the six to Asia's advanced economies and the United States4 signals
- TrendCross-border positions widen and face political limits2 signals
- IssueDefending an open trading order through CPTPP and reglobalization1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendDeglobalization turns energy-transition materials into geopolitical bottlenecks2 signals
- TrendEU China policy shifts from engagement to de-risking3 signals
- TrendEconomic security drives reconfiguration of strategic supply chains, including clean energy11 signals
- IssueEconomic security through diversified cooperation, strategic resources and managed security items2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueFour 2030 competitiveness scenarios defined by regulation and geopolitical volatility1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueFrom security with the US and economy with China to security with the US and economy with the world1 trends · 1 signals
- SignalGeoeconomic fragmentation is weakening cross-bloc flows
- IssueKorea needs supply-chain and alliance diversification plus foresight capacity2 trends · 1 signals
- IssueLinking industrial policy with overseas investment and trade to rebuild secure supply chains1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueNew free trade zones and rising protectionism at the same time1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePolicy task 2: strengthen the upstream supply chain from an economic security perspective1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePolicy task 3: make the trade environment more predictable and build diplomatic buffers0 trends · 0 signals
- TrendRelative US decline and protectionism accelerate the retreat of globalization12 signals
- TrendResource nationalism rises while major economies race to stabilise critical mineral supply chains6 signals
- IssueSecurity-driven economics and the efficiency cost of strategic autonomy3 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSilicon sovereignty is broken into six levers including critical minerals and energy1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueStrengthening Korea's strategic flexibility and leverage with both powers1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTariffs, export controls and rules of origin become decisive for Korean ICT firms4 trends · 1 signals
- IssueWatch point: trade shifts stabilize or destabilize geopolitics depending on connectedness1 trends · 0 signals
11-30 years 4
- Issue2050 regional order scenario 4: Interpenetrating competition amid economic interdependence1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendMegatrend 3: Decline and reordering of the free-trade system7 signals
- IssueRestructuring of the international division of labour0 trends · 1 signals
- IssueTransformation of the international economic and monetary system0 trends · 1 signals
Other 1
- IssueArctic routes opening while other trade routes become less viable1 trends · 0 signals
Climate Change & Adaptation 10
- TrendClimate driver: three variant paths from halted warming to failed survival0 signals
- SignalEU launches Climate Insurance Alliance to close catastrophe protection gap
- IssueGlobal governance of the climate crisis under strain0 trends · 1 signals
- SignalIPCC Chair Keynote at London Climate Week 2026 — U.S. Paris Withdrawal Takes Effect
- IssueInternational climate governance falling short2 trends · 1 signals
- TrendShift of emphasis from mitigation toward adaptation7 signals
- TrendSolar radiation modification back on the agenda and the need for preventive atmospheric governance0 signals
- IssueThe Paris 1.5°C goal moving out of reach1 trends · 2 signals
- SignalUN Climate Chief: "Faster energy transitions are core to national security"
- SignalUS Climate Alliance and Climate Mayors Launch Joint Partnership at Climate Week NYC
Resources, Food & Water 22
0-3 years 15
- SignalA $137bn Chinese mega-dam met by a $77bn Indian counter-dam programme
- SignalA $666 billion circumpolar economy with 13% of undiscovered oil
- SignalA Moroccan dam due in 2026 would restrict water to Algerians
- SignalCanada, Vietnam elevate ties to strategic partnership in first-ever visit by party chief
- SignalChina supplies all of the EU's imported heavy rare earth elements
- SignalEthiopia inaugurates the Grand Renaissance Dam without a Nile agreement
- SignalFive named mineral holders have explored OPEC style supply management
- SignalGlobal Food Crisis 2026: 318M in Hunger Crisis; USAID Shuttered
- SignalIndia suspends the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty
- SignalIssue network analysis: food security and regional security are the most connected of 59 issues
- SignalOver 80% of Pakistani agriculture depends on Indian-controlled headwaters
- IssueRisk: slow repair of Gulf energy facilities keeps oil supply tight through 20270 trends · 0 signals
- TrendThe water weapon9 signals
- SignalThree fifths of 310 international river basins have no dispute framework
- SignalWater-Related Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa Surge 36% — 76 Cases in 2024
4-10 years 3
- TrendGlobal resource rush8 signals
- IssueMaterial demand may feed local conflict where mining meets farming and cities1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendRace for scarce resources0 signals
11-30 years 1
- IssueDeepening food security crisis under climate change0 trends · 0 signals
Other 3
- IssueMineral shortages stalling net zero and escalating tensions1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueScarce battery metals fuelling conflict and corruption in producer countries1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: swings in resource value, including from manipulation, move power unpredictably1 trends · 0 signals
Ecosystems & Biodiversity 2
Democracy & Governance 31
0-3 years 19
- SignalA clear majority of the world's population lives in countries that are not democracies
- IssueChallenges to international institutions the most outward-connected risk1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalColombia's De la Espriella Sworn In as President, Marking Sharp Rightward Political Shift
- SignalDamascus court sentences former President Assad to death in absentia
- SignalForeign actors almost certainly sought to interfere in the 2019 election
- SignalH.R. 4795: Protect Economic and Academic Freedom Act of 2026 -- House Vote #295 -- Sept. 3, 2026
- SignalInternational organizations invite firms to give policy advice and states appoint tech ambassadors
- SignalIranian parliament advances bill to curb foreign influence
- IssueJoint action between governments seen as the most effective response0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueMega-prisons and detention expansion create an invisible male humanitarian crisis1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalNicaragua Passes Reform Barring Opposition From Elections
- IssueOrganizational rigidity, not external shocks, limits geopolitical response speed1 trends · 4 signals
- SignalReport states authoritarian regimes now outnumber democracies worldwide
- SignalThe United States classified as a declining democracy
- SignalTurkish parliament approves PKK reintegration framework law
- SignalTurkish parliament closes term with 21 new laws, 15 international agreements
- SignalTwo new coalitions form around global governance and Charter renewal
- SignalUS withdraws from international organisations and cuts foreign aid
- SignalZambia Halts Nationwide Vote Counting Amid Security Concerns
4-10 years 10
- TrendAmerica First retreat lets China fill multilateral gaps in a post-American world2 signals
- TrendDemocracy weakens and authoritarianism gains ground3 signals
- IssueGlobal South male health crises are structurally absent from mainstream frameworks2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueHow to hold technology firms accountable and fit them into global governance is unsettled1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueInternational cooperation and a unified investigation body against borderless intelligent crime1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendInternational institutions constrained in promoting peace and cooperation10 signals
- TrendMass incarceration becomes a primary engine of global health inequality for men2 signals
- TrendPopulist nationalism and strongman leadership erode the post-Cold War structure0 signals
- IssueSecuritisation of social and economic policy3 trends · 0 signals
- TrendUncontrollable global shocks drive demand for strategic foresight in government1 signals
11-30 years 1
Other 1
- IssueWatch point: global governance must absorb networked states and states without territory1 trends · 0 signals
Tech·Digital Policy 16
0-3 years 5
- Signal36 percent plan to strengthen data sovereignty audits across their partner ecosystems
- IssueData regulation and geopolitical risk now shape where shared services can operate1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalExecutive Order 14409: Promoting Advanced Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Security
- IssueKorea's AI sovereignty strategy amid alliance bargaining and a contest over AI norms1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendSecuring national technology sovereignty becomes the key to winning the AI race5 signals
4-10 years 8
- IssueAI-based military technology outside democratic oversight0 trends · 0 signals
- TrendBig tech firms as a geopolitical power factor1 signals
- SignalCould Underwater Data Centers Pose a Risk to AI Treaty Verification?
- TrendMajor powers treat science and technology as strategic assets for sovereignty and innovation ecosystems7 signals
- IssueOrbital governance built for a world that no longer exists1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalReducing Catastrophic Risk from AI with Systematic Monitoring and Evaluation of Rogue AI Progression
- TrendScience and technology policy is being securitized amid geopolitical conflict and technology rivalry4 signals
- IssueTreating cyberspace as a commons rather than as territory1 trends · 0 signals
Other 3
- IssueCourts may be unable to constrain AI even where the public demands it1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueEnd-to-end encryption listed as a chronic risk but assessment withheld0 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSplinternets: the internet fragmenting into regional digital islands1 trends · 0 signals
Demographics & Migration 5
- SignalA quarter of humanity already lives in shrinking countries
- SignalForced displacement at 123 million, nearly double a decade ago
- SignalReport names Japan, South Korea and China as rapidly ageing while Africa's young cohort comes of age
- TrendRising forced displacement tied to conflict0 signals
- SignalSahel displacement stays regional: Mali and Burkina Faso under 2% of EU asylum claims
Welfare & Health 8
- SignalAMR named a high consequence risk in the 2023 Biological Security Strategy
- SignalDrug deaths at highest level since records began in 1993
- SignalDrug harms costing UK society over 20 billion pounds a year
- SignalDutch AMR approach: few resistant infections, low antibiotic use, international action plan
- TrendMale-predominant crises in the Global South do not fit Western men's health frameworks3 signals
- IssuePersistent threat of infectious disease0 trends · 1 signals
- TrendProgress toward equality stalling2 signals
- SignalWHO member states adopt a pandemic prevention agreement (2025)
Education & Generations 2
- IssueChildren's device use raising exposure to online groomers1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: states investing in diversity and welfare cultivate talent and gain influence1 trends · 0 signals
AI & Computing 18
0-3 years 9
- TrendAI infrastructure becomes the new battleground for technological hegemony10 signals
- SignalDARPA Awards IonQ Up to $58M to Manufacture Next-Generation GPS-Free Optical Atomic Clocks
- SignalHUMAIN Unveils humain-m3, a Frontier Arabic Language Model Developed by MiniMax, in Research Preview on HUMAIN Node
- IssueKorean strength: AI infrastructure linchpin0 trends · 0 signals
- TrendOpen models empowering less sophisticated malicious actors0 signals
- TrendQuantum technology leaps forward to solve hard problems of the AI era4 signals
- SignalStudy estimates LLMs' geopolitical leanings from historical UN General Assembly voting patterns
- SignalUS institutions produced 61 notable AI models in 2023 against the EU's 21 and China's 15
- SignalUS, China and the EU build AI supercomputing centres under national AI strategies
4-10 years 6
- TrendAI becomes a general-purpose technology and a national strategic asset amid global hegemony competition0 signals
- TrendAI hegemony race turns AI infrastructure and industrial ecosystems into interstate strategic competition5 signals
- TrendAI reclassified from frontier technology to systemic force0 signals
- TrendChina's rise as a high-tech economy9 signals
- SignalDrone and robot hiveminds: patenting swarm intelligence at the EPO
- TrendFrontier technologies accelerate innovation and become the core of national technology rivalry1 signals
11-30 years 3
- IssueScenario A 'Harmonious Prosperity': AI harmony, halted warming and a second globalisation by 20503 trends · 2 signals
- IssueScenario B 'Irrecoverable World': AI stagnation, failed climate survival and war by 20503 trends · 2 signals
- IssueScenario D 'Adaptive Prosperity': AI harmony with climate adaptation in a bloc-divided order3 trends · 2 signals
Bio & Health Tech 1
- TrendWider access to engineering biology raising misuse risk3 signals
Energy & Climate Tech 14
- TrendContinued fossil dependence and supply-security risk0 signals
- IssueCrude and naphtha supply risk around Hormuz hits refining, petrochemicals and textiles hardest1 trends · 0 signals
- TrendElectrification makes societies more dependent on a grid that transmits shocks quickly0 signals
- TrendEnergy security and industrial competitiveness merge into one policy agenda3 signals
- TrendEnergy security returns as a top priority alongside carbon neutrality1 signals
- TrendEnergy security shifts from securing fuel to system resilience2 signals
- IssueIntegrated strategy for energy security and carbon neutrality, including critical minerals2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKorea-Japan cooperation on LNG procurement and nuclear fuel supply security0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalMiddle East war removed about 17 percent of global LNG supply and damaged Qatari liquefaction capacity in 2026
- SignalPakistan and IAEA sign safeguards agreement for Chashma-5 nuclear power plant
- TrendRenewables become the core of the power portfolio as energy volatility grows6 signals
- SignalRussian gas fell from about 45 to 12 percent of EU gas imports between 2021 and 2025
- TrendUS climate retreat shifts clean-energy and climate-governance leadership toward China7 signals
- SignalUS, China and EU energy policies diverge as AI power demand grows
Space & Mobility 12
- IssueAgenda 2: Securing space sovereignty and building a space-technology convergence industry3 trends · 0 signals
- SignalChinese crewed lunar mission planned for 2030
- SignalEarly-stage deal share to Chinese and Indian space startups more than doubled in a year
- IssueExpanding the sphere of human activity in the space-economy era0 trends · 0 signals
- SignalFirefly Aerospace Signs Contract with SSC Space for Two Alpha Launches from Esrange Space Center
- IssueKey point: space becomes the arena for defence and security technology1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalSix Asian states listed as having put satellites in orbit
- TrendSpace rises in economic and security value while Korea's autonomous capability lags0 signals
- SignalThe United States leads orbital launches in 2025, with Asia second
- IssueThe next generation of US space startups is concentrated in one company's alumni network1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendTrend 11: falling launch costs and private scale reshape space markets11 signals
- SignalUK Unveils £7.8bn Space Strategy, with Satellite Connectivity Central to Reducing Reliance on Starlink
Digital Infrastructure & Cyber 37
0-3 years 23
- Signal"Permanent instability" becomes the founding premise of 2026 cybersecurity strategy
- TrendAI is simultaneously the source of new security risk and the means of defending against it11 signals
- IssueConnected robot fleets open attack surfaces where a breach becomes a physical hazard1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalCyberwarfare and ransomware increasingly target data infrastructure
- SignalDOJ, FBI Disable China-Linked QTFY Hacking Platforms Targeting U.S. Agencies
- TrendDigital identity theft and ransom growing with online personal data0 signals
- IssueExponential threat growth is asserted without any quantity attached1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalFirst AI-orchestrated cyber-espionage campaign disclosed in September 2025
- SignalGoverning Luminaries: The Global Cyber War Hits Home
- SignalHostile States Behind 75% of Cyber Attacks on UK Infrastructure - NCSC CEO
- SignalIran-Suspected Hacks of U.S. Water Systems Hit 12 States
- SignalLaboratory for AI Security Research announced in 2024
- SignalLatin American Crime Groups Adopt Drones, AI Scams, and Cyber Intrusions
- SignalMoody's warns AI-native malware to dominate 2026; Leonidas defeats fiber-optic drones
- SignalOne underwater data centre programme was shut down while another scaled commercially
- SignalOnly 25% of leaders prioritize digital security despite rising cyber-fragility
- SignalQuantum decryption is already a stated concern of technology executives
- SignalSeafloor cables carry over 95% of international internet traffic and are exposed to sabotage
- SignalSubmarine cables, cloud data centres and low orbit satellites are named as privately held
- SignalThe Escalating Cyber Risk Landscape / CISA at 40%
- TrendTrend 7: defence moves from detecting attacks to preventing them2 signals
- SignalUS Water System Cyberattacks Spread to Georgia and Michigan, Now Affecting a Dozen States
- SignalWEF Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026: 91% of large enterprises revised cyber strategy on geopolitical volatility
4-10 years 11
- IssueAI spreading into grids, water and transport turns cyber compromise into cascading physical failure2 trends · 0 signals
- TrendCyber attacks growing in complexity, severity and range of perpetrators7 signals
- TrendDigital and cyber threats as the largest structural threat0 signals
- SignalGartner predicts European and Middle Eastern firms will repatriate workloads to reduce geopolitical risk
- IssueKey point: security becomes a variable at every level of technology1 trends · 1 signals
- TrendQuantum computing and cyber-physical attacks threaten critical infrastructure5 signals
- IssueRace to upgrade encryption before quantum computers make it obsolete1 trends · 0 signals
- SignalReport expects documented vulnerabilities to exceed one million a year by 2030
- SignalSovereign infrastructure ecosystems are dated to become foundational after 2030
- TrendTechnological Vulnerabilities3 signals
- IssueWatch point: infrastructure owners withhold essential services as bargaining leverage1 trends · 0 signals
Other 3
- IssueCriminals gaining tools, data and anonymity to exploit weakly regulated sectors1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueOffenders hacking connected devices and GPS to track targets1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueOffensive cyber pre-positioning against UK critical sites1 trends · 0 signals
Values & Lifestyles 4
- SignalCultural resistance to geopolitical adaptation tracks organizational energy levels
- TrendFive defining features of society a decade ahead, from digital life to normalised risk1 signals
- SignalReflective leaders perceive more external pressure than their peers
- SignalSurvey: digital transition seen increasingly positively and US-China conflict less negatively for 2026