Signal Preprint proposes 'Effective Cognitive Population' unit for AI-era national planning

Summary

A preprint proposes a new concept called the Effective Cognitive Population. National planning has traditionally treated population, human capital and AI readiness as separate ledgers. The proposed measure is a decomposable unit that weights population both by capability and by the conditions under which that readiness actually converts into productive capacity. The paper argues that no existing metric captures this conversion condition. It represents an attempt to combine population, human capital and AI readiness, previously tracked in separate ledgers, into a single decomposable measure. As a result, the concept sits at the intersection of demographic and health policy on one hand and AI governance planning on the other.