Issue 2050 regional order scenario 1: Return to great-power politics

Summary

The first of five scenarios for the regional order around 2050, which the report says reflects a Japanese perspective, is a return to power politics among several great powers. After the Second World War the United States upheld a liberal international order through its strength, but as that strength weakens revisionist forces such as China and Russia are emerging. A more plural order could take shape, with US-China confrontation in East Asia and Russia exerting great-power influence in Europe. The rise of regional powers such as Iran could further reinforce the revisionist trend. If US engagement in each region weakens, the report judges that this multipolar system is likely to lead gradually to insecurity.