Issue Probabilistic risk scoring judged unfit for chronic risks

Summary

The report judges that chronic risks, being systemic and long-lasting, are poorly served by traditional probability-based impact assessments. The Government Office for Science and the Cabinet Office therefore built a new assessment method drawing on futures and systems thinking. The first stage, evidence gathering, used a wide body of research refined through challenge from cross-government and academic experts, and it mainly informs the sections describing each risk's current state. The forward-looking sections combined existing government scenarios with futures workshops to generate ideas. Finally, an impact mapping exercise identified which chronic and acute risks were most likely to interact, producing demanding scenarios against which policymakers can test their policy areas.