Issue Crude and naphtha supply risk around Hormuz hits refining, petrochemicals and textiles hardest

Summary

KIET's industry assessment shows refining, petrochemicals and textiles as the industries most exposed to the Middle East war. Refiners are expected to run plants conservatively because volatile crude supply and prices raise the risk of inventory valuation losses, even though global refining margins stay high on product supply disruption. Petrochemical makers face unstable naphtha procurement and higher feedstock costs linked to Hormuz risk, making it harder to keep NCC utilisation up and raising the chance of lower output and export volumes. Textile makers suffer sharply worse margins and delivery delays as synthetic fibre feedstock and logistics costs surge, while fabric exports to the Middle East fall. The same naphtha disruption could tighten polyethylene supply for battery separators and plastic parts for home appliances. Second-half production of refined oil products is projected to fall 21.1 percent.