Issue 2050 regional order scenario 5: A liberal international order renewed in modified form

Summary

The fifth scenario is one in which the past US-centered liberal order is not fully restored, but its elements are maintained and reinforced at a new level. The United States still holds overwhelming military and economic power compared with other states, and its global influence has also grown. Revisionist powers such as China and Russia are rising, but they face many problems of their own and would find it hard to become hegemons that surpass the United States. If Washington sustains high growth and leads in military innovation and advanced technology, it could preserve the liberal international order in a modified form. Challenges from revisionist states would continue, yet the liberal order would be restored and sustained in a new shape.