Trend Rising global tensions triggering more state activity and challenger actors

Summary

The report expects that heightened global tensions could lead to more state activity in the short term. The forms this might take include expanding alliances among adversaries, the use of criminal groups as proxies and changes in how adversaries weigh their intentions. Technological progress that lowers the barriers to entry is also named as a factor. Together these shifts could broaden the range of actors able to challenge the UK. The report already sees rapid geopolitical change making the world more volatile and contested, while state-aligned actors expand the cyber threat landscape. State threats could therefore grow in number and variety.