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2026-10-08
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2026-10-08 19:44 KST
The Futures

Trend Redefining old age by remaining life expectancy rather than a fixed 65 threshold

Summary

The report questions the long-standing practice of marking the start of old age at a fixed age, usually 65, as if physical and cognitive abilities changed abruptly at that point. While chronological age remains useful in many areas, it overlooks recent gains in life expectancy and quality of life, and the fact that different aspects of ageing matter unequally for different tasks. Academics are therefore proposing a more dynamic definition of old age that captures people's functional age. One proposal by Lutz and colleagues places the threshold where fewer than 15 years of life expectancy remain, which in Spain lifts it from 65 in 1970 to 76 in 2050. Adopting this prospective view considerably shrinks estimates of the damage ageing does to long-term economic growth. The report frames the shift under the idea that demography is not destiny.

Classification

Region menusEurope
Impactscope:country · geo_region:europe · country:ES
Time horizon11-30 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026
Last updated2026-09-30 11:23 KST

Evidence 1

Observed signals 2

Part of issues 0

No objects.

Relation types: supports

Public id: fm-f5faaa51f96d