Signal US reciprocal tariffs entrench protectionism as consumer-goods production shifts from China to India, Vietnam and Mexico

Summary

The division-of-labour overview reports that sporadic US tariff actions since 2017 have become a fixed feature of international trade under the second Trump administration's reciprocal and product-specific tariffs. Europe and other major economies are also spreading protectionist measures as self-defence against surplus Chinese output. Production capacity for consumer goods such as ICT devices, textiles and fashion, cars and parts, and furniture and toys is moving in earnest from China to India, Vietnam, Mexico, Malaysia and Thailand. The survey links these shifts to the relocation of core industries according to security and sovereignty logic. It expects the realignment to alter the growth paths and political influence of major economies.