Trend Climate and trade intensifying plant pest outbreaks
Summary
The report defines a plant pest as any organism, including insects, other invertebrates, bacteria, fungi and viruses, that harms plant health by feeding on plants, causing disease or interfering with normal growth. International trade and travel act as pathways for pests and keep plant health under constant threat. Abiotic stresses such as drought, flooding and pollution also make plants more vulnerable and can change how disease develops and how severe it is. Environmental change linked to climate change intensifies these stresses, making plant disease outbreaks more frequent and severe, and could allow new pests to establish in the UK. The report expects the gradual spread of native and non-native pests to damage plant health, crop yields, the environment, natural capital and trade.
Classification
Evidence 1
- HM Government - Cabinet Office and Government Office for Science (Foresight) Chronic Risks Analysis HM Government - Cabinet Office and Government Office for Science (Foresight) no link — bibliographic entry p. 101 2025 accessed 2026-09-29
Observed signals 9
- SignalOver 200 quarantine pests listed, six established in Great Britain
- SignalOver 950 UK species associated with ash trees threatened by dieback
- SignalPlant Biosecurity Strategy for Great Britain 2023 to 2028
- SignalPlant pests could threaten jobs of 471,000 UK agricultural workers
- SignalUK Plant Health Risk Register in place since 2013
- SignalUK potato farmers spend 55 million pounds a year on blight
- SignalUp to 40% of food crops lost to pests; diseases cost 220 billion dollars
- SignalVirus yellows cut up to 25% of the UK sugar beet yield in 2020
- SignalWheat stem rust found in the UK in 2013 for first time in 60 years
Part of issues 4
- IssueCrop diversification and genetically engineered varieties for resilience1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueImported pests degrading forests and carbon storage1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueRepeated harvest failures from drought and pathogens1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueStricter import controls versus trading partnerships1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-01dd092213ac
