Signal Korea's national pension faces deficit in 2041 and depletion in 2055 under current rules

Summary

Pension sustainability is the more urgent issue for Korea, which the author places at the front line of the first-wave demographic crisis. According to the health and welfare ministry's fifth national pension actuarial projection released in 2023, the fund would swing into a balance deficit in 2041 and be exhausted in 2055 if current rules are kept. Because Korea relies on public pensions for more than half of the senior gap, depletion would mean more than a fiscal problem. It would signal a crisis of the social contract as a whole. The author argues that structural reform redesigning intergenerational redistribution is unavoidable, going beyond adjustments to contribution rates. The productivity, participation and migration levers proposed by McKinsey may also have limited effect given Korea's structural characteristics.