Trend Over-65 share projected to rise from 19% to 22% by 2032

Summary

In its short-term outlook, the report projects that the share of the UK population aged over 65 will climb from 19% in 2022 to 22% in 2032. This would push up the dependency ratio, the measure comparing working-age and non-working-age groups, so those in work must support more people through taxes or direct help. Shifts in immigration could offset part of this effect, but most inward migration is concentrated in large cities such as London and Manchester, so the offset would be partial. As ageing continues, demand for health and social care rises while the workforce in those sectors may shrink if there are fewer people of working age. The report also warns that growing need for informal care, mostly provided by women and older people, could weigh on economic activity.