Issue Sustaining a fragile 2025 recovery amid tariffs, household debt and regional housing risks

Summary

The government states that the recovery it has managed to revive must be expanded and consolidated. To that end it sets the direction of boosting economic and livelihood vitality, responding to changes in the trade environment and managing the macroeconomy stably. The outlook identifies several pressures on that recovery, including US tariffs that may slow exports in the second half and remaining item tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Accumulated high prices and household debt may restrain consumption, and unsold housing in the regions weighs on construction. Geopolitical oil volatility and unusual weather add uncertainty, making the durability of the recovery a central policy question for the new administration.