Signal "Europeanisation of NATO" (NATO 3.0) after Ankara Summit; US troop drawdown from Germany

Summary

The NATO summit was held July 7-8, 2026 in Ankara, with Secretary General Mark Rutte calling it one of the most consequential in the alliance's history due to record European and Canadian defense-spending commitments. The "NATO 3.0" framing originated with US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who proclaimed a future in which Europe does far more and the US far less within the alliance. In Ankara, however, Trump announced no additional troop cuts beyond the previously disclosed 5,000-troop reduction in Germany, which had not yet begun, while committing to increased US troop rotations in Poland; the Hegseth-Colby push for larger European drawdowns has also been slowed by a two-month Pentagon posture review won by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. US withdrawals so far include the roughly 5,000 troops from Germany and cancellation of a rotational brigade destined for Romania. In the FY2026 NDAA, Congress had prohibited reducing US military personnel in Europe below 76,000 without prior consultation, and House and Senate Armed Services Committee chairs voiced concern in May 2026 about the Germany brigade withdrawal. European and Canadian defense spending rose 19% year-on-year in 2025 and nearly 120% over 2022-2026, with Germany targeting 3.5% of GDP by 2029 and Poland targeting 5%, while NATO members signed more than $50 billion in new procurement contracts and confirmed €70 billion in support for Ukraine during 2026.