Signal Wars in Georgia and Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea call Russia's security umbrella into question

Summary

The report acknowledges that the post-Soviet space saw wars even during its relatively stable decades, citing the seven-day Russia-Georgia war of 2008 and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Until the large-scale war between Russia and Ukraine broke out in February 2022, however, the region was broadly stable. Territory-changing events, from the 2008 war with Georgia through the 2014 annexation of Crimea to the 2022 war, now raise strong doubts about whether peace under Russia's security umbrella is sustainable. The authors argue that this undermines one pillar of the formula that let Eurasian states prosper since independence. Combined with the US-China tariff war, the shift could confront these countries with an integration dilemma quite unlike the one they faced before.