Issue Eurasian states face a new integration dilemma that forces them to choose sides

Summary

Some 35 years after independence, the northern states, especially in Central Asia and the Black Sea region, face upheaval that threatens their formula of peace under Russia's security umbrella, economic ties with China and Russia and prosperity through third-vector partners such as Korea, Japan, Europe and Turkey. The report groups their challenges into four areas: geopolitical change, economic and technological challenges, stronger connectivity, and climate and environmental problems. Wars that changed borders and the US-China tariff war and hegemonic rivalry shake both the security and the economic parts of that formula. The earlier integration dilemma after the Soviet collapse concerned whether and how fast to integrate and could be overcome by the practical benefits of integration, whereas the dilemma that has spread since the mid-2010s demands a strategic choice of which side to stand on. The authors expect these states to weigh which option secures political stability and economic prosperity and to pursue pragmatic strategies accordingly.